We would like to know how they can produce this forecast, as it does not include Solar Activity from the Sun, still they know best........
Met Office Forecast for UK Winter 2008/9
Temperature
Winter temperatures are more likely to be above normal over much of the European region. However, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter, when above-average temperatures were widespread.
Article continues below this advert:
For the UK as a whole, winter-mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal. Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured, temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced last year.
Rainfall
For much of northern Europe, including the UK, rainfall is likely to be lower than observed in last year's relatively wet winter. However, this signal is not sufficient to indicate whether winter precipitation totals are more likely to be above or below the 1971-2000 average.
Met Office warns of colder weather
Tweet Article
Post to Facebook
Print Article
On balance I think the coming winter will be colder and drier than the long term average, possibly by a surprising margin but too much depends on the winter jet stream which can be very unpredictable in Western Europe.
Last winter was, as they say, warmer than the average here and in W Europe. However that was during a colder than average N Hemisphere winter overall.
What happened was that the plunges of cold air over N America distorted the jet stream which then approached us persistently from the South West bringing frequent flows of mild air.
Since the recent global cooling trend has intensified since last winter I suspect that the jet stream will this year push more often into the Mediterranean thus cutting off the supply of warm air to us. IF that happens (no guarantee) then the Greenland and Scandinavian high pressure cells will affect us more than for many years past and give us persistent cold or at least coolness.
Of course at any time a global temperature trend can go into reverse so my expectations are subject to that not happening.
If we get a persistent run of depressions north of Scotland then that would be an indicator of a change back to an overall warming trend if accompanied by a movement of jet streams poleward in both hemispheres. I am not expecting that to happen as long as we have a quiet sun and a negative or neutral PDO.
Comment edited by Stephen Wilde on Monday October 27, 2008 at 8:25 PM GMT
Comment edited by Stephen Wilde on Monday October 27, 2008 at 10:14 PM GMT