Saturday, July 28th 2012, 11:31 AM EDT
During the next day or so we will see another Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" period 30th - 31st July(R5). The following Tropical Storm report looks a prime candidate to "power up" and become a major concern to the people of Taiwan. The author of the following report has no idea as to the Solar/Lunar influence that is about to happen in the next few days, if he did I dont think he would be in any doubt as to how strong this storm could be. Sadly there is no way anyone can forward this message and we will have to sit back and see how this Tropical storm pans out. If only the Met Office could forward our concerns!
Forecast for Saola - wunderground.com
Saola is in a very moist environment and over very warm waters, both important factors in determining how much, if any, a storm can strengthen. The other main factor is wind shear. Saola is currently in an environment of fairly light shear. Its track, however, will take it into an environment of more moderate shear, so the main question for intensity will be how it handles this shear. The JTWC forecasts steady strengthening to a peak of 75kts before landfall on Taiwan. One thing that could help Saola is its very large size.
This will likely help prevent shear from seriously disrupting the system. I generally agree with the JTWC intensity forecast. If anything I would forecast a slightly higher peak intensity, possibly 80-85kts, due to the possibility that it takes advantage of its current favorable environment to strengthen more in the short term than forecast. However, as we have seen with large storms in the past, they sometimes struggle to bring their winds up due to their large circulations, so a lower than forecasted peak is also possible, though less likely
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