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Statement: Solar Climate Change and Hurricane "Sandy"
Thursday, November 1st 2012, 6:47 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
I have had several of you email in about what was said on the build up to Hurricane "Sandy". Most of you were concerned that the News Media do not report Solar Activity and the Earth's Weather events as being related.

Put simply the Media and various Government agencies will not support Solar Activity and the Earth's Weather events as being related, as it conflicts with the political view of "man made" climate change. If they started to say that the Earth's weather is changed by the activity on the Sun they would then not be able to support the politics of climate change.

The Solar period for Hurricane "Sandy" was during a very high "Red Warning" event, one of the highest of the year (R5+), it was no real surprise to see what took place as you you see below.

Firstly this is what we reported on a day to day basis starting on the 23rd October.

Solar Climate Change: Another "top rated" R5+ Period of Solar Activity looks to be underway

Image Attachment


we are now at the start of a second R5+ period in two months. The following YouTube of a Solar flare from today looks to be the start of this event....remember the CME from a Solar Flare does not have to be in direct line with Earth, it's the "hole" that is facing us that counts...more to follow...see link for YouTube


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The next event was on the 24th of October, this was the result of the Solar flare on the 23rd...

Second M6+ Earthquake Recorded After Solar Flare

Yesterday we posted news of a "top rated" R5+ Period of Solar Activity looked to be underway. Today I have picked up reports from the USGS site that there have been TWO M6+ Earthquakes since the original solar flare.

This R5+ solar activity is either a couple of days early using the original Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" forecast, or there is more to come....stay tuned for more.


Then on the 25th October a clear sign that Solar Activity was getting stronger by the "power up" a couple of Tropical Storms....one being "Sandy"

Image Attachment


On Tuesday 23rd I posted a Piers Corbyn R5+ "Red Warning" for the 26th October as there was an large Solar eruption taking place on the surface of the Sun a couple of days earlier then expected. On the 24th there was news of TWO M6+ Earthquakes and it looked as if this Solar event had come to an end.

Today there is news of a Hurricane "Power Up" from Cat1 to Cat2, my interpretation of this Solar event is that the current Solar Activity is not over and it will fall more or less in line with the recent Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" R5+ forecast. Weather systems and storms will be enhanced in this period, making them more powerful then forecast by standard Meteorology. Also in this period there is a higher then average chance of M6+ Earthquakes and Volcanic activity...more to follow.


And then on the 27th October, the last day of the "Red Warning" we noticed a second "power up" going on with Tropical Storms, again "Sandy" was one of them. This indicated that "Sandy" was going to be something very special, and due to her location there was a situation regarding a "public warning"

Hurricane Sandy "Power Up" idicates R5+ Solar event is still on the cards!

Image Attachment


On Tuesday 23rd I posted a Piers Corbyn R5+ "Red Warning" for the 26th October as there was an large Solar eruption taking place on the surface of the Sun a couple of days earlier then expected. On the 24th there was news of TWO M6+ Earthquakes and it looked as if this Solar event had come to an end.

Today there is news of a Hurricane "Power Up" from Cat1 to Cat2, my interpretation of this Solar event is that the current Solar Activity is not over and it will fall more or less in line with the recent Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" R5+ forecast. Weather systems and storms will be enhanced in this period, making them more powerful then forecast by standard Meteorology. Also in this period there is a higher then average chance of M6+ Earthquakes and Volcanic activity...more to follow.


The next Solar related event was a M7.7 Earthquake

Daily Quake: Magnitude 7.7 earthquake strikes off western coast of Canada

The Second "Power Up" for the October 26th - 27th Top Red Warning Period (R5+) has now produced a M7.7 Earthquake!!!!!!!

Piers Corbyn's methods may have there issues on locations and days as far as his UK weather forecast is concerned but his Astro knowledge for the timing of major Solar Activity seems to be spot on....more to follow

VANCOUVER FoxNews.com, British Columbia – A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck off the west coast of Canada and a tsunami warning was issued, authorities said, but there were no immediate reports of major damage.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake hit the Queen Charlotte Islands just after 8 p.m. local time Saturday at a depth of about 3 miles (5 kilometers) and was centered 96 miles (155 kilometers) south of Masset, British Columbia. It was one of the biggest earthquakes around Canada in decades and was felt across a wide area around British Columbia...click foxnews.com link for more


The rest as they say is History.

You decide as to what happened during the past few days were the results of Solar Activity and the events on our world, one thing is certain "man made" climate change DID NOT have any impact on Hurricane "Sandy"
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Comments

Have Your Say

Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:27 AM EDT
Here is what Piers Corbyn predicted would happen to Sandy.http://twitpic.com/b76ckr. He said it would turn right because of something to do with us being in a LIA. When it didn't do this and it turned a sharp left towards the USA he forecast it would significantly reduce in strength as it was now in his "R3" period. He went even further and broadcast a video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxZ8Euiq_zc&feature=player_embedded which suggested that some people had been needlessly evacuated and that the forecast affects of the storm had been exaggerated.

Sandy struck land with winds of 95mph, over 9 inches of rain and two feet of snow. It killed over 70 people.

If you really want to know why "Media and various Government agencies" will not listen to Piers's forecasts. It's because they are woefully inaccurate.

Remember the Olympic ceremony? If people had listened to him then they may have cancelled it. And now Sandy, let's be gruesomely honest here, if anyone took Piers in any way seriously then the death toll would have been far worse.

Comment edited by ted rising (Twitter) on Thursday November 01, 2012 at 7:29 AM EDT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:35 AM EDT
Ted

Are you saying that because "Sandy" did not turn right or left in the way Piers said it would it then makes Piers unable to predict these events?

I take the view Piers has NO FUNDING to carry out this fine tuning, however the BIG picture is that he CAN see the Solar Activity coming from way off as you read in the way he put forward that this R5+ would be a bit special, and it was
Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:39 AM EDT
"Are you saying that because "Sandy" did not turn right or left in the way Piers said it would it then makes Piers unable to predict these events?"

That is what the evidence suggests.
Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:43 AM EDT
"he CAN see the Solar Activity coming from way off as you read in the way he put forward that this R5+ would be a bit special, and it was"

Every one of his "R5" periods have been "forecast" to be special. A statistically insignificant amount are.

Anyway, Sandy struck during an "R3" period.

Comment edited by ted rising (Twitter) on Thursday November 01, 2012 at 7:44 AM EDT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:44 AM EDT
Ted

You have been corrected many times about the rain at the Opening of the Olympics. Piers used this location as a "headline grabber" in order to state there would be a major flood event, there was, but not at "Stratford".

We had a short sharp shower at that location not flood!

Please be objective in what you have to say, it helps for debate
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:45 AM EDT
On the other thread there are some shameful selective comments trying to make out thousands would be dead if they listened to Piers. No mention that NOAA vastly underestimated the surge (6ft) which is what was so damaging. Why no disgust for the Al Gores profitting from Sandy by pushing the Climate Crisis meme before/during and after?

Worth noting the 1821 hurricane occured during low tide otherwise would have made Sandy pale (think it was cat 5). Piers could have been clearer on the interview on 29th am edt but this was explained on the WA site:

See Piers Corbyn on Video"FrankenStorm is somewhat exaggerated*” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxZ8Euiq_zc  * Note It is still a dangerous storm; this vid does not mean ‘Do Nothing’.We are advancing forecasting science to get better projections of real events."We are in a pre – new Little Ice Age era and major Storms, extremes and Earthquakes will be more common” .

LIVE REPORTS FROM USA (also more on YouTube above)

Art Pyron. "Thank you for your comments re the hurricane as seen on 108Morris108. I live in Pennsylvania, USA near Philadelphia, and we are having rain and some wind. Not the end of the world. If it were 20 degrees fahrenheit colder, we would be having a blizzard. While this type of weather is not something to ignore, I think we will all survive. We also needed some rain as we were almost 4.5 inches behind our normal totals because of the summer drought...

PG(Oct 30th) Art gives a follow-up report in Reader Comments below which, while recognizing the widespread damage and tragic losses, helps put Sandy in the context of other more extreme events in the past in that region.RESULTS (SO FAR) COMMENT from Piers (2300edt Mon = 0300utc Tue): The most significant things from WeatherAction view are that a) The storm was enhanced and very major earthquakes occurred in our predicted R5 /QV5 (for quakes) Solar Lunar Action Technique (SLAT) period.b) The storm shifted significantly to Right (by 180km transverse to track ~longitudinally over 36 hours of official forecast time) ~DURING OUR R5 period. This is a SLAT (Solar Lunar Action Technique) transverse motion perturbation of 5km/hour over the period.c) Although for apparent** Meteorological set-up reasons the storm did in fact make landfall (contrary to what we expected likely 4 or 5 days ahead) by turning left AFTER our R5 it was nevertheless NOT a hurricane when it made landfall and it appears, as we advised, the public warnings were somewhat exaggerated (see below).  The cold blast from NW which met Sandy's periphery (and caused the left turn later) was in our WeatherAction forecast from 30days ahead which predicts heavy snow/blizzards/thundersnow in period 29-31st. [**Note nevertheless comments on this re previous storms, on links Morris108 YouTube]  OBSERVATIONS Philadelphia (re above) is pretty well on the line of the storm center track (eg via http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html ) and from Art's report the storm sounds less than the hype, although situation in coastal New Jersey prob worse than Philadelphia. Comments on 108Morris Video also refer to LESS rain (and wind) and storm effects over quicker than public led to expect.Central pressure just on/after landfall looks like ~968mb as distinct from ~960mb on forecast charts before but this rapidly changes on coast so difficult to judge if this is significant difference. There was talk of a lot of 'extra' snow expected on the N/W flank of the wider storm set-up but as yet it is not clear if there are 'extra' snow impacts appearing.  

Feedback on WUWT site http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/29/tropical-storm-sandy/ from quite a few people makes the pretty consistent points that:

(i) The wind and rain and flood levels have been LESS than public projections - while noting there have been some serious floodings but largely near sea and related to high tide near full moon.
(ii) It was NOT a hurricane when it hit land contrary to certain public pronouncements.(iii) The extent (not intensity or duration) was nevertheless wide.  


Comment edited by Craig M (Twitter) on Thursday November 01, 2012 at 7:46 AM EDT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:48 AM EDT
Ted

I have to correct you on the "event" for the R5+

Piers did NOT state that there would be a Hurricane and that it would hit New York etc.

What he said was there would be major event during the 26th-28th (I noticed the 28th was used on his chart, and yet I called it for the 27th)

There were TWO major events in this period one was the M7.7 Earthquake and the other was a formation of a major Hurricane!
Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 7:59 AM EDT
I don't really want to change the subject and and talk about the Olympics again, but.. you say "You have been corrected many times about the rain at the Opening of the Olympics. Piers used this location as a "headline grabber" in order to state there would be a major flood event, there was, but not at "Stratford"." Where was this major flood event? Sweden?!

"We had a short sharp shower at that location not flood!" It was extremely short and not very sharp. Just 0.2mm recorded at the North Olympic park weather station.

My point was that Piers forecast all sorts of dire things to happen during the Olympic opening ceremony. Luckily no-one pays attention to him. Likewise he "forecast" that Sandy would be a lesser event and luckily again no-one listened. Long may this remain the case.
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 8:04 AM EDT
How about a woefully inaccurate wettest drought ever? No severe cold winter? The models and Met don't get it always right even in the reliable but considering the size of teams and funding they should get it right more often (One if the weather companies had 100 people working on Sandy - not one man and a laptop). ted you do yourself no favours. If you want to say no solar factors impacted Sandy go ahead but drop the Piers invective. The models did fairly well overall and the ECMWF did very well at t240 but others had a larger degree of scatter.
The surge not so greatly forecast but I am going by the NOAA advisories and I haven't seen model projections for that.

Let's try and keep it civil :-D
Posted by Oakham (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 9:48 AM EDT
Piers is a betting man, he took a gamble by predicting against the official forecast. If he got lucky he would milk it for all it was worth. I was sure he would get it wrong, as he did, and thought that he would let it go quietly, I was surprised when he didn't. Instead he made more of a fool of himself by trying to downplay this event and stating that he was correct by desperately grasping onto the smallest and briefest shift.
Posted by jazznick2 (forum) on Nov 1st 2012, 10:23 AM EDT
If everyone could stop the personal attacks on Piers for just one minute and accept that Solar effects on climate need increased investigation, no matter what the outcome. If it blows AGW out of the water it's all the better for mankind surely ?
(Unless your income/investments/pensions/taxation plans depend on it of course)

To try to suggest that Piers' pioneering forecasting (funded by happy customers) represents the only person trying to develop the Solar Climate Change (SCC tm) theory shows a very blinkered view of what is really happening.

Solar seems to be a popular theory at the moment as can be seen here:-
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/rapid-progress-for-the-solar-planetary-theory-in-2012-eclipses-agw-at-elsevier/

So, open your minds everyone. Many distinguished scientists can see that AGW doesn't stack up. They are looking elsewhere, why aren't you ?
Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 12:31 PM EDT
You say many distinguished scientists can see that AGW doesn't stack up. The truth is the opposite; Very few, if any, distinguished climate scientists don't accept AGW. Of course solar influence on the climate has been and continues to be researched but the current understanding is that although the sun's fluctuations do have a considerable affect on the climate, it's not strong enough to curb the global warming we have seen from increased greenhouse gasses.

Piers Corbyn and his followers believe that he is onto something. They believe he can forecast extreme weather events and even earthquakes. If he can then he should definitely open up his research for closer inspection and therefore possibly further investment. Imagine how many lives the world over will be saved if hurricanes and earthquakes could be accurately forecast. He would almost certainly be award a Nobel prize and become the most highly thought of scientist of this generation. But he won't do it. He claims it's more important for him to sell his "forecasts" to the few people who believe in him, than to achieve scientific greatness and save tens of thousands of lives.
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 12:39 PM EDT
Ted no one pays any attention to the MetO - I'd be a rich man if I got a penny for each time I heard that. Please comment on how you think the forecast did or did not power up/shift east during the r period not Piers. Thanks.

Willis E caught similar stick for 'downplaying' over at WUWT.

As at 2 PM Pacific time, here’s the current position of Sandy and the projected path.SOURCE: National Data Buoy CenterI had said a couple of days ago, when Sandy was a hurricane, that it would not be a hurricane when it hit the coast. How did that go?Well, as of the time that this location and projection of the path was done, the NDBC has shown all the nearest stations. Not one of the actual observations is showing sustained winds over 50 knots, and that’s a long ways from the 72 63 knots that marks a hurricane. Please note that the big damage from such storms is the flooding, so I am not minimizing the likely extent of the damage.  It will be widespread. However … not a hurricane.
Posted by jazznick2 (forum) on Nov 1st 2012, 12:52 PM EDT
My word. You read those 24 papers quickly Ted.

Comment edited by jazznick2 (forum) on Thursday November 01, 2012 at 12:52 PM EDT
Posted by Oakham (Twitter) on Nov 1st 2012, 1:09 PM EDT
Piers was 80% certain that 'solar particles' would cause Sandy to miss NJ and NYC. Look back at the archived NHC discussions, Sandy did exactly what they predicted. Solar influence is indisputable, but not like this where the motivation is just to gainsay whatever the 'mainstream' puts out, presumably for political purposes.
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