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ASTROPHYSICS V METEOROLOGY MET OFFICE SOLAR CLIMATE CHANGE UK WINTER FORECAST 2012/13 UPDATED WORLD TEMPERATURES
Met Office Issue Alert Level 3 - Cold Weather Action for 4 to 5 Days and then what?: Updated with WeatherAction.com forecast for same period
Sunday, January 13th 2013, 12:49 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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See below for Met Office 5 Day forecast and see how difficult it is for them to predict beyond this period - Piers Corbyn with his 25 years experience has issued a Public Warning Public Warning: This Weeks Major R5+ Solar Event To Produce Additional Stratospheric Warming and I have included his forecast below issued at the END OF DECEMBER!

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Above images taken on Sunday 13th January from this link (Note: the information on this link will change each day)http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Below is a section from the January WeatherAction.com forecast issued at the End of December:

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REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jan 13th 2013, 2:16 PM EST
Which bit of Piers current forecast is actually correct?
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 2:28 PM EST
Here's mine from last October:

January 2013: (cold periods still quite intense due to continuing easterly QBO)
Moderate cooling from 3rd,
much stronger cooling from 7/8th, very cold in week 2 into week 3,
a much milder period from 18/19th,
a colder ~week from Jan 29th.
Overall around average temperatures for the month.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 2:36 PM EST
Elim, what you should be saying is how come the Met Office with all their staff and computer power have no idea what will happen in 5 days, so will the cold weather continue, change to warmer conditions or as Piers indicates with no such computer power or staff, become worse?

To find fault in what location etc. You may as well state what Piers did note mention, like how many people could not make their journey to work or how many sheep there were that had no food and so on

The fact is Piers has gone into this cold period from a forecast that was produced when the UK weather was WARM. So between then and now he has managed to get to this point with moreless the correct climate conditions. Just to see how easy it is let us have your February forecast, you won't produce one as you can't, you won't even get close to it, and yet at the first opportunity you will pick holes in someone who has no funding or computer power. Cheap shot or what
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 2:38 PM EST
Ulric, with all respect, how can anyone verify what you have said, please send me your forecast for February and then at least it can be verified
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jan 13th 2013, 2:50 PM EST
The Met Office forecast doesn't say that the 'bad weather will be over by thursday' it's a cheap shot to put words in their mouth.
As for Piers forecast - it's not dry, it's not very cold nor is there a high pressure over Britain. No funding or computer power - what exactly is he lacking that would make his forecasts accurate? What attempt has he made to get funding?
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 3:06 PM EST
Co2sceptic said:

"Ulric, with all respect, how can anyone verify what you have said, please send me your forecast for February and then at least it can be verified"

You must be kidding, if I give you Feb you'll go straight down the bookies! Over 150 of my LinkedIn contacts received my Jan forecast on Dec 13th, sorry if I left you off the list. The MetO seasonal forecaster Michael Saunby also received a copy on Dec 31st.
You can find that in the American Geophysical Union (AGU) group on LinkedIn, in comments on a post called; THE GLOBAL WARMING CONSPIRACY. Several amateur forecaster friends on facebook also had my Jan forecast last month too.

Comment edited by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Sunday January 13, 2013 at 3:08 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 3:20 PM EST
Ulric, if you only understood how difficult it is to get a bookie interested in betting on the weather other then snow on Xmas day

Last year I tried to place a wager on the openening day of the Ollympics and they wanted to quote me EV to £50, I told them what to do with it:l

Glad to here you can verify your claim, dissapointed you have no trust in me
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 3:22 PM EST
What are the odds the Met Office see RED (level 4) at the end of the week
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 3:27 PM EST
I was only mucking, you can find my Feb forecast there too ;)
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jan 13th 2013, 4:22 PM EST
I'm not sure that you fully understand the cold weather warnings CO2. Levels 1-3 are aimed at the vulnerable - health/social. We're always at Level 1 in the winter, Level 2 is triggered by a 60% or more risk of threshold weather being breached and Level 3 is when the threshold has been breached. The threshold is a mean temperature of below 2C for 48 hours or over and/or heavy snow or widespread ice.
A level 4 warning is only issued in conjunction with government advisors, when the cold weather health risks extend beyond the vulnerable group into the rest of the population. :)
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jan 13th 2013, 4:25 PM EST
Piers said high pressure over Britain - there is low

Piers said it will be dry - there is a band of heavy rain/sleet/snow moving across the country

By all measures, a very bad forecast.

Oh, you are going to say that he said it would be cold, cold in January, big deal.

May I remind you that the Met Office has constantly been saying that this winter will probably have below average temperatures. No doubt, since December came in slightly above average and up to now January has been fairly mild, you were getting ready to claim another MO forecast gone wrong. Unfortunately for you, Piers forecast the same thing so you would have to say Piers was wrong too, against your religion.

Good job that all people in authority only take forecasts for reputable sources. If they listen to Piers, all the snow plough drivers would be on holiday this week.

Comment edited by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Sunday January 13, 2013 at 4:28 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 4:39 PM EST
We're always at Level 1 in the winter

Elim, did you just say what I thought you said!!

I think it's time to let us in on who you guys are.

Tom, the idea of a forecast is just that, so Piers may be out on the actual timing of his major forecast and that is from the 16th, I have said this before, I only take notice of R4+ events so this period is not an easy one to get right. But I expect him to do well in what is to come

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Sunday January 13, 2013 at 4:42 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 4:41 PM EST
Who will take a wager from me there is a level 4 (RED) by the end of Saturday.

£50, to fair odds, paypal payment only
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jan 13th 2013, 4:43 PM EST
CO2 - in a forecast, timing is everything. Otherwise it is simply a statement of weather typically experienced at a given time of year.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jan 13th 2013, 4:46 PM EST
Tom, BTW This current period is at R1, anyones guess, I think Piers was just filling in the gaps, not a bad guess for what it's worth
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