Monday, February 11th 2013, 3:51 PM EST
Those of you who follow the Piers Corbyn Solar Climate Changes have seen these changes before, and no doubt will see them again, these "power ups" are used as a "crude" but seemingly reliable indicator to show the presence of Solar Activity and they coincide, more often then not with the WeatherAction high "R" Red Warnings, such as the one posted yesterday...more to follow soon
wunderground.com/blog/MAweatherboy1/commentAs we move through the heart of winter in the US, we continue to move through the heart of Southern Hemisphere cyclone season. The past couple weeks have been fairly quiet in the South Pacific and South Indian basins, but we now have a system to track in the South Indian.
This is Cyclone Gino, a system currently located over the open ocean about 630 nautical miles ESE of Diego Garcia, according to the latest warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The JTWC is estimating the system's maximum 1 minute sustained winds as being 45kts, the equivalent of a weak/moderate tropical storm in the Atlantic. This intensity is based off of a variety of Dvorak estimates, particularly ADT estimates which had been running in the 45-50kt range at the time of the advisory, and have continued to climb since then. Gino is moving SW at approximately 9kts.
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Forecast for Gino
Cyclone Gino is under the influence of a large subtropical ridge, which it is on the northwestern edge of. Because of this, a continued SW motion is expected for the next day or so. After this time, however, a potent shortwave trough is expected to weaken this steering ridge, causing Gino to turn more to the SSW, then S, and eventually SE. In the South Indian basin, this is basically the equivalent of a recurvature in the Atlantic. Favorable atmospheric conditions and warm waters will cause Gino to continue to intensify for the next 2-3 days. The JTWC is forecasting a peak intensity of 85-90kts in just over two days. The main limiting factor for the storm to intensify further is lack of time, as after about 60 hours the storm will begin to encounter strengthening vertical wind shear and gradually cooler waters which will become less conducive for supporting a tropical cyclone. Extratropical transition may begin as early as 72 hours from now, and the JTWC forecasts the storm to be fully extratropical in 4 days. I am in general agreement with their peak intensity forecast, though I would lean towards a slightly stronger storm, possibly up to 95kts. I also expect the storm to survive a little longer than JTWC, likely not completing extratropical transition for about 5 days. Gino will be traversing the wide open ocean, so it will not provide any effects to land....click above wunderground.com link for more
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