In 2008, Britian’s Met Office noted a 10-year pause, or sharp slowing, in the warming trend and asked this question in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’ annual State of the Climate:
Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?
No, it decided. Global warming models wouldn’t be clearly wrong until the pause lasted 15 years:
Observations indicate that global temperature rise has slowed in the last decade… The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.
Werner Brozek checks the latest data for warming trends:
On all data sets below, the different times for a slope that is at least very slightly negative ranges from 4 years and 7 months to 16 years and 1 month.
1. For GISS, the slope is flat since May 2001 or 11 years, 9 months. (goes to January)
2. For Hadcrut3, the slope is flat since March 1997 or 15 years, 11 months. (goes to January)
3. For a combination of GISS, Hadcrut3, UAH and RSS, the slope is flat since December 2000 or an even 12 years. (goes to November)
4. For Hadcrut4, the slope is flat since November 2000 or 12 years, 3 months. (goes to January)
5. For Hadsst2, the slope is flat since March 1997 or 15 years, 11 months. (goes to January)
6. For UAH, the slope is flat since July 2008 or 4 years, 7 months. (goes to January)
7. For RSS, the slope is flat since January 1997 or 16 years and 1 month. (goes to January) RSS is 193/204 or 94.6% of the way to Ben Santer’s 17 years.
But when Brozek checks for statistically significant warming, the warming pause extends by every measure to more than 15 years:
For RSS the warming is not significant for over 23 years…
For UAH the warming is not significant for over 19 years…
For Hadcrut3 the warming is not significant for over 19 years…
For Hadcrut4 the warming is not significant for over 18 years…
For GISS the warming is not significant for over 17 years...
Once warmists said 15 years of no statistically significant warming invalidated their models. Draw your own conclusions.
UPDATE
Cut & Paste gives the ABC’s pause-denier Dr Karl a lesson that must this time get through even to him.
When will the ABC demand its science presenter stop giving ABC listeners false information? Why is Dr Karl not punished for errors as Alan Jones was?
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