Weather Action Long range trail forecasts for World weather extremes
First Hurricane of US season likely 18-22 June. Gulf Of Mexico land hit 75% likely.
Severe tornadoes also likely in this period while New York / NE USA cold
Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction Long range forecasters today (June 13) - in a dramatic new move towards developing long range extreme weather forecasts for anywhere in the world - predicted that the first tropical storm of the US season will form (85% likely) around 18th June.
"We expect it to start in the Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico region and soon develop into Hurricane strength and make landfall (75% likely) or near landfall by 21 or 22 June in Florida / Southern States or possibly Cuba or (less likley) the west side of the Gulf .
"This Tropical storm will be associated with severe tornado events in central / SouthEast parts of the USA while New York /NorthEast USA are likely to be unusually cold" said Mr Corbyn. "After that we are 90% confident the storm will quickly die and the period 23 June to 5 July will be essentially storm free" he said.
There is at present (June 13th) no forecast for any US Tropical Storms on the USA official hurricane and weather service Service sites. This is the 5th of WeatherAction's trial forecasts of extreme weather events in the USA this year. The success rate (for three major blizzards and a spell of severe tornadoes) is 4/4 so far*.
Mr Corbyn currently also has an active summer period forecast for exceptional torrential downpours and floods in Britain at the end of June / start of July which will disrupt Wimbledon tennis and Glastonbury festival.
These trial forecasts are created using WeatherAction's revolutionary Solar Weather Technique which uses predictable aspects of particle and magnetic affects from the Sun to make forecasts of certain extreme events in various parts of the world. At this stage they are not intended to forecast all extreme events (as do the full forecasts for Europe and Britain) - only a selected few. The forecasts are available to customers months ahead and made public one to four weeks ahead of events.
The expected success rate at the present level of research is about 6 successful for every one which is unsuccessful. For an ongoing monitor of the WeatherAction (SWT24e) extreme June-December 2008 forecast world trials and latest news visit Weather Action's world extreme events forecast link on www.lowefo.com
Two forecasts have been made so far this (N hemisphere) summer - the USA Tropical storm forecast above and the British end-June/start July deluge forecast below which was carried in The Sun on 4th June (page 18).
PREVIOUS News Release for 00.00hrs Tues 3rd June
Weather Action June 2008 Forecast Media summary Statement (Available 3rd June2008 at 00:00hrs)
Exceptional Deluges likely to hit Glastonbury and Wimbledon
Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction Long range forecasters today (June 3rd) warned that WeatherAction's June forecast is predicting exceptional deluges, thunder and floods around the end of June and start of July and specifically that 'Glastonbury festival & Wimbledon Tennis are likely to be hit by exceptional deluges of torrential rain'. This warning has a high (85%) confidence and is part of WeatherAction's full forecast for this June which spells out the timing and region detail of weather through the month.
Piers said "We are again experiencing stark changes and extreme weather events all over the world triggered by the high sensitivity of magnetic and particle links between the sun and Earth during this general period of transition between an odd solar cycle - 23 - and even cycle 24".
Fuller information via www.weatheraction.com
Global Warming Debate news
The June issue of WeatherAction forecast bulletin carries an article on the latest development in the challenge to the UN Climate Committee (IPCC) by 'the gang of 4' scientists For latest visit www.weatheraction.com for report:
"No response from UN Climate Committee to challenge by 'gang of 4' scientists. Scientists call on UN Climate leaders to admit they are wrong
Also see: - Global warming - Is UN officialdom split?