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On Andrew Revkin
Friday, January 30th 2009, 5:03 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
From Jim Peden

The cold hard reality of the alarmists vs deniers battle is, one side or the other is dead wrong. I "came out of retirement" to study the issue at the request of others, and confess at the beginning of my personal investigation, I was inclined to believe the popular notion that mankind had indeed mucked up his environment ( again ). I come from an era when science was a noble profession where we all strived to diligently uncover the truth, shared our findings with others, and would quickly change our minds on a particular theory if material evidence proved otherwise. The mantra at the time I began my personal investigation was that the science was settled, the debate was over, and the time for rapid and radical overhaul of our entire civilization was long overdue. It didn't immediately appear illogical to me at the time, because I still trusted science, and scientists in general.

Updated Below from Vincent Gray


As a former atmospheric physicist with a relatively brief tenure in that particular field, my attention was first drawn to the raw physics of carbon dioxide and it's potential for warming the atmosphere. For me, the the laws of physics are not subject to change by virtue of a public consensus or declarations of highly placed politicians and government science bureaucrats. What I discovered was CO2 indeed had some potential for warming the atmosphere, but was relatively insignificant compared to water vapor and at the accepted current concentrations of 385 PPMV it was nearing saturation as an atmospheric heater and further increases beyond this point could not produce very much additional heating.

The problem was, the answers to my questions lay in fundamental and well known and accepted laws of physics, with the accompanying mathematical complexity well beyond the understanding of my laymen friends who had asked my opinion in the first place. I then undertook to write a highly simplified and obviously not exactly technically correct explanation of what my many months of research had revealed. The public had a right to know that they were being manipulated by a powerful group of science bureaucrats with decidedly evil motives to feather their own research funding nest through abysmal exaggeration and mass hysteria based not on science, but on computerized projections which had no more validity than trying to predict the outcome of the Superbowl game.

I don't know Andrew Revkin's educational background, or whether he is even capable of reading and understanding such classics as Gerlich and Tscheuschner's treatise on the subject. If not, then he, like so many others who attempt to write on science beyond their own personal pay grade, is faced with the question of just whom should one believe? It is not an enviable position in which to be. If he sides with the argument that eventually turns out to be the wrong one, then his credibility vanishes as soon as the truth becomes apparent to all. If he tries a fair and balanced position as a neutral reporter on the subject, then he faces the absurd position of trying to explain just how the earth can be flat and round at the same time.

Of this I am certain: The general public is hungry for information and would very much like a resolution to the current debate, which by now is obviously far from over as initially declared by Mr. Gore. My original editorial on the subject went viral within a week, has been read in over 140 different countries by almost 100,000 readers, and even has been translated into German. Overnight I found myself transformed from a retired retired atmospheric physicist and mountaineer into a global warming pundit, chatting up the subject with G. Gordon Liddy on satellite radio, addressing the Vermont congressional roundtable, and answering a hundred daily emails from both scientists and laymen eager to shed the light of truth on the subject and be done with it. Every day I face essentially the same task as Mr. Revkin: trying to explain an extraordinarily complex subject which no one person completely understands to an audience capable of understanding no more than crude analogies or gross approximations.

Mr. Revkin has his work cut out for him. In my opinion, we scientists on the denier side should not dwell on criticizing his past writings or beliefs, and concentrate on feeding him timely, accurate, and important current empirical science and data on the issue. He, at least, has one ear cocked our way, and whether you like it or not, the New York Times has a voice heard around the globe. This is an opportunity that doesn't come along very often, lets not blow it.

James A. Peden

*****************************************

From Richard Courtney

Dear Jim:

You say:

The cold hard reality of the alarmists vs deniers battle is, one side or the other is dead wrong. I "came out of retirement" to study the issue at the request of others, and confess at the beginning of my personal investigation, I was inclined to believe the popular notion that mankind had indeed mucked up his environment ( again ). I come from an era when science was a noble profession where we all strived to diligently uncover the truth, shared our findings with others, and would quickly change our minds on a particular theory if material evidence proved otherwise. The mantra at the time I began my personal investigation was that the science was settled, the debate was over, and the time for rapid and radical overhaul of our entire civilization was long overdue. It didn't immediately appear illogical to me at the time, because I still trusted science, and scientists in general.

With respect, you put too much credit to "scientists" promoting the scare concerning anthropogenic - that is, man-made - global warming (AGW). Several science administrators promote the AGW scare because it is necessary to 'go-with-the-flow' when competing for research funds, but - with a very few notable exceptions - few scientists promote it.

From the start, AGW been a bandwagon that many have joined because they can gain from it. I explain this at http://www.john-daly.com/history.htm

I had no knowledge of the matter until early 1980. Margaret Thatcher had become UK Prime Minister in May 1979, and she soon began to campaign on AGW. Her reasons for this are explained at the URL (n.b. as it says at the URL, "This is probably the most important fact in the entire global warming issue; i.e. Mrs Thatcher had a BSc degree in chemistry"). Then, early in 1980, the British Association of Colliery Management (BACM) commissioned me to investigate the matter. I assumed there was some validity in it because the government was promoting it and BACM was concerned at that promotion, but what I found surprised me.

My analysis for BACM consisted of first looking up the (then very little) scientific literature before interviewing various participants in the issue. I collated my findings from the literature search and the interviews into the influence diagrams and evaluations that are at the URL I cite above (the URL also includes some updates I made in 1997 and is written in - hopefully - plain English).

From that analysis I concluded that the AGW issue was scientifically dubious but was likely to become economically important. Furthermore,
the analysis indicated that the science of AGW was an adjunct to the politics of AGW
(the major feedback loops in the diagrams would remain if all reference to science were removed).

Therefore, I concluded (and reported to BACM) that AGW would become a major environmental issue whether or not AGW obtained any supporting scientific evidence.

BACM considered my conclusion to be so extreme that they rejected it and did not adopt any policy on AGW. Subsequently, AGW has become a major environmental issue that has not obtained any supporting scientific evidence, and it has not been overcome by substantial scientific evidence that disproves it (e.g. see http://www.tech-know.eu/uploads/AGW_hypothesis_disproved.pdf).

Science is still a tool of the politicians and the special interest groups who promote AGW.

The only argument for AGW is the so-called 'precautionary principle' (PP). But if PP is a reason why protection against AGW should disrupt the economies of the entire world then it is equally valid to say that PP is a reason to provide everybody with tin hats in case the Moon falls to bits and starts falling from the sky.

All the best

Richard

*************************************

Updated from Vincent Gray

Dear Richard

You learned very early that the global warming promotion does not involve honest science.

I obtained my PhD in Cambridge in 1946 where scientific integrity ruled. I spent my career trying to apply science to industrial problems but was often frustrated by attempts by employers to use scientists to endorse sales decisions instead of improving their product. This attitude now pervades governments worldwide who now demand that scientists provide evidence to support political decisions. The global warming promotion is their most important success.

In retirement I got involved in commenting on the publications of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I assumed that they were honest scientists but I was disillusioned very soon. From the beginning everything was distorted and selected to promote global warming. The real factors influencing the climate, such as the sun, the ocean oscillations, cloud variability and cosmic rays are marginalized, downplayed, demonized, The very first Report confessed that there was a "minority opinion" that did not agree with the "consensus" which they had no intention of allowing a voice.

I more slowly came to realise that all the data that supported their cause are dubious.The surface temperature claims are based on multiple averaging of a variable unrepresentative sample subject to unrecognised biases of a single daily temperature reading.

The carbon dioxide measurements are restricted only to the ocean when the wind blows in the right direction.

The computer models are based on absurd assumptions about the earth's energy. The earth is assumed to be flat, the sun shines all day and night with the same intensity, the temperature is constant and the energy entering equals the energy leaving. On their own admission they are incapable of predicting future climate, only "projecting" the absurd assumptions of the models. These "projections" are always well ahead of what can be checked for reliability and the only evidence for them is the prejudiced opinions of those paid to produce them.

The greenhouse promotion is the antithesis of genuine science, It is the ultimate triumph of the premier skill of our era, spin.


Vincent Gray

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