We posted the Met Office Winter Forecast 2008/2009
on October 27th, and made the following comment....We would like to know how they can produce this forecast, as it does not include Solar Activity from the Sun, still they know best
...With the severe winter weather in the UK as at the 2nd February and the activity on the Sun at almost zero, we feel that the Met Office should be held to account for a waste of public money and funding in their pursuit of "Man Made Climate Change". Christopher Booker if your reading this take aim and fire!
It's little wonder that the Met Office are unable to produce long term weather forecasts, even with a super computer, as they do NOT include or simply do NOT WANT to include the Solar variable. Meanwhile Piers Corbyn at Weather Action
, a company that does not have any funding or the use of a super computer correctly predicted a severe winter using his Astrophysics background and a slide rule! Updated below with comments from Piers Corbyn
This is what the Met Office said on the 27th October
Met Office Forecast for UK Winter 2008/9
Winter temperatures are more likely to be above normal over much of the European region. However, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter, when above-average temperatures were widespread. For the UK as a whole, winter-mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal. Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured, temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced last year.
Updated with comments from Piers Corbyn
Heavy Snow in England.........
Weather Action, warns: More snow, sleet and ice to come in February and standard forecasts will keep getting caught out.
The headline long range forecast for February from WeatherAction.com is below.
As the heaviest snow for 18 years hit London and many parts Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com today warned that their long range forecast for the month predicts more snow, sleet and ice and that standard Meteorology forecasts would continue to underestimate the speed of changes and the amounts of snow and sleet likely to fall.
He said "Its not easy to get snow amounts right in forecasts but much more fell today than short range computer forecasts suggested from a couple of days ahead. The reason is the strength of solar particle and magnetic factors at specific predictable times this month and a very significant warming of the stratosphere in polar regions which took place at our predicted major Solar Weather Impact period on 22/23 Jan. This Sudden Stratospheric Warming messes up the flow of the jet stream (the path of Lows around the globe in our latitudes) so blasts of very cold air get shoved our way at times. Combined with our predicable solar factors they will come harder and faster than standard computer models will expect and at WeatherAction.com we predict when these events are likely.
"Typically the amounts of snow and sleet that come will be 3 or 4 times the standard computer forecasts from a couple of days ahead and the events will tend to develop faster and give colder blasts"
Media & public web Headline summary& Notes for Britain & Ireland FEB 09 Weather Action Forecast based on WeatherAction Euro maps issued 25 Jan 09
Feb 2009 - Cold or Very Cold with ice snow, sleet and freezing fog. Storm at start March
Extra uncertainty & errors this month in standard - as on TV - meteorology forecasts.
· The full detailed forecast with maps, graphs & timing in 10 time periods of most likely weather developments through the month, is in forecast detail in the following 6 pages which is also available via PayPal on www.WeatherAction.com
· This forecast takes into account new advances in forecasting science concerning changes in the Jet stream (ie flow pattern around the North pole of Low pressure systems). These are taking the form of disruptions to this flow which tends to occur after Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events - such as the 30 year record SSW which happened in the predicted Solar Weather Impact Period 22/23 Jan. This post SSW effect will make stark temperature changes across Ireland & Britain in time and position and will cause extra uncertainties and more changes and difficulties than usual in short range TV Weather (Numerical Weather Prediction) forecasts through most of February.
PREVIOUS NEWS RELEASE - carrying more about Sudden Stratospheric Warming and world weather events...