I just received this message from Kees de Jager about an article which he wrote with Silvia Duhau. It has been published in the latest issue of the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.
The authors don't foresee any further global warming in the near future, but the possibility of a new Dalton minimum in stead.
If they are right, current climate policies will become irrelevant and will have to be fundamentally reassessed.
Hans H.J. Labohm
We wish to inform you of the recent publication of our paper ‘Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond’. In this paper we forecast a late and low next solar maximum, followed by a longer period of relatively low solar activity. The reference and the abstract are given below. The full paper can be consulted at http://www.cdejager.com/Sun-earth publications/
by clicking at 2009-forecasting-jastp-71-239
Silvia Duhau, Kees de Jager
C. de Jager, S. Duhau: Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol. 71 (2009), 239 – 245
Abstract. Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a nonlinear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in the dynamo’s magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax = 68 ± 17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate to low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60 - 100 years).