by Howard Spery
As a recent headline in a London paper stated, "There is a problem with global warming . . . it stopped in 1998."
But in the pages of The Denver Post, guest commentary writers and Post reporters act as if the climate is continuing to warm, that there is a consensus among climate scientists about it and that the remedies they propose would be easy and effective.
Now, I am not a climate scientist. My training has been in electrical engineering and business administration. But I have researched this thoroughly, without having a bone to pick in this fight. Reliable data is everywhere, in books, articles and on the Internet.
Indeed, numerous scientists, politicians and bureaucrats proclaim that the 1990s were the warmest decade of the last century, and 1998 was the warmest year. However, the numbers and methodology on which these were based were corrected under pressure. In actuality, the 1930s were the warmest decade and 1934 was the warmest year.
The articles that I've read in The Post neglect to mention that while the climate did indeed warm (by 0.6 degrees Celsius) during the 20th century, almost all of that occurred prior to 1940. It cooled between 1940 and 1975, warmed some between 1975 and 1998, and has not gotten warmer since. The average land and sea absolute temperature around the globe has not risen since 1998, and with the significant drop of 0.8 degrees Celsius from January 2007 to May 2008, most if not all of the 20th century warming has been canceled out.
The touted consensus that global warming proponents say exists among climate scientists is nonexistent. For every scientist who interprets the data as alarming, there is another scientist who disagrees.
More and more climate scientists are noting the lack of correlation between global temperature and CO2 levels (both historic and recent) and the substantial correlation of global temperature with solar radiation. While correlation does not prove causation, the absence of correlation does indicate absence of causation.
After a century of high solar activity, the sun's effect is now weakening, suggesting a likely drop in temperatures.
As an aside, while the climate was warming on Earth, "global warming" was also occurring on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon and even on Pluto. Obviously, there are far-reaching effects from CO2 levels on Earth. The global climate models upon which the alarmists are relying for their dire predictions are notoriously inaccurate, and their predicted "fingerprint" of human-caused greenhouse-gas warming is entirely absent from the observed record.
Not only is the evidence absent for man-made global warming, the effects of the steps taken in Europe to reduce CO2 levels to correct this problem are also absent — but very expensive. The currently proposed draconian reductions in CO2 levels are likely to result in such a reduction in the standard of living in the European Union that it is inconceivable that EU citizens will approve.
While I might shake my head at such foolishness, the alarmists and politicians are proposing such folly here in the U.S. Even if the economy were not in trouble, we could make much better use of the huge costs of any of the proposed mitigation approaches. As it is, I cannot imagine how the economy would survive such costs.
Howard Spery lives in Evergreen.