Nat. Geographic spins quiet Sun: Sun Oddly Quiet -- Hints at Next 'Little Ice Age?'
More evidence that evidence doesn’t count in consensus climate science.
CO2 goes up and up while global temperatures vary up and down. Conclusion: CO2 causes warming.
After a century of robust solar activity, activity plummets dramatically and temperatures fall in pace. Conclusion: CO2 causes warming.
But notice: No mention in the article of recent global temperatures. The reader will assume that they’ve continued to rise.
NB: Read article from Nasif S. Nahle
I think that AGW skeptics fail to consider how much the sky allegedly heats the earth. By itself, the theory says, the sun can only raise the earth’s surface temperature to minus 40° Celsius. That’s what 168 watts per square meter of average surface irradiance entails. But trace gases in the sky are believed to raise the surface to plus 15°, making the earth warm enough to emit 390 watts per square meter. That’s a minimum difference of 222 watts per square meter, far more irradiance than the sun provides. Correcting for other sources of heat loss, however, the consensus view has the sky radiating 324 watts per square meter, nearly twice the power of sunlight on the surface. No wonder, then, that consensus science marginalizes the sun's effect.
Yet for all of that...
1. An object’s temperature in sunlight corresponds only to the solar energy it is absorbing, not to solar "plus something else," and it is generally cooler than predicted due to air currents.
2. Because non-solar radiation doesn’t observably increase daytime temperatures, the night sky should be ablaze in an infrared radiance that clearly exceeds what the surface is emitting. But this isn't observed either. So-called downwelling flux appears just to be ambient air radiating in response to residual surface heat, and it declines as the night progresses.
— so it seems reasonable to conclude that greenhouse gases don’t heat the earth’s surface in the first place. Indeed, it seems reasonable to conclude that the surface heats the sky, both day and night.
Dr Nahle has much to say in this regard.INDUCED EMISSION IN RADIATIVE HEAT FLUX
By Nasif S. Nahle
April 17, 2009
Throughout the last decade, supporters of the idea of an anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or the impact of an anthropogenic "greenhouse" effect on climate (IAGEC) have been insisting on an erroneous concept of the emission of energy from the atmosphere towards the surface. The AGW-IAGEC assumption states that 50% of the energy absorbed by atmospheric gases, especially carbon dioxide, is reemitted back towards the surface heating it up.
This solitary AGW-IAGEC assumption is fallacious when considered in light of real natural processes. AGW-IAGEC states that if the atmosphere absorbs 240 W/m^2 of energy, 50% of that energy is emitted towards deep space and 50% is emitted back to the surface. However, the proponents of AGW-IAGEC are neglecting other processes which take place in every atmospheric radiative heat transfer event.
The release or capture of a photon by a molecule of any substance depends on three main processes:
1. Spontaneous Emission, which consists of randomized emission of photons through many trajectories. Spontaneous emission is isotropic (the same intensity in all the trajectories) and an external source of photons is not needed for exciting atoms or molecules into releasing energy, i.e. it can occur in the absence of photon streams. However, it is affected efficiently by Induced Emission and Induced Absorption.
2. Induced Emission, which is the release of photons by an atom or a molecule in a higher energy state in the same direction as the incoming radiation or photon stream, understanding “incoming radiation” as the incident energy on that atom or molecule.
3. Induced Absorption, which happens when part of the incoming radiative intensity is absorbed by an atom or molecule at a lower energy state.
The radiative intensity of the atmosphere of Earth can be calculated by the following formula:
Iav = h 1/4π [(Aul / Bul) / (gl *Blu / gu * Bul) e^hν/kT - 1 (Modest. 2003)
Where Iav is for the radiative intensity of the atmosphere, h is for the Planck constant (it has the value 6.626 x 10^-34 J*s), π is ≈3.1416, Aul is for the Einstein coefficient for spontaneous emission, Bul is for the Einstein coefficient for induced emission from high energy states to low energy states, Blu is for the Einstein coefficient for induced emission from low energy states to high energy states, gl denotes degeneracies from low energy states to high energy states, gu denotes degeneracies from high energy states to low energy states, hv is the energy of a photon, k is the absorption coefficient variable, and T is for temperature.
If the emission of photons from the atmosphere happened only by Spontaneous Emission, this emission would have to be far more intense than the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing radiation emitted from the surface, specifically, that the photon emission from the atmosphere would have to be forcibly more intense than the electron stream incoming from the Sun or exiting from the Earth. This is plainly not true in the real world.
Actually, the three processes of heat transfer by radiation have effect in the terrestrial atmosphere where induced absorption and induced emission prevail over spontaneous emission because the intensity of the solar photon stream and the intensity of the surface photon stream are always in higher energy states than the atmosphere photon stream.
Many have alluded to nighttime inversion of radiation, but it is an inappropriate idea taken from planets without oceans. At night, the oceans release photons forming a photon stream which leads to atmospheric induced emission.
There are many scientists who have found errors in the calculations of the proponents of the idea that carbon dioxide is causing planetary warming. The most serious of these error resides in believing in a downwelling photon stream which, as AGW proponents say, overwhelms the surface emission of radiation and warms the surface during nighttime. However, when we analyze the issue of downwelling radiation emitted by the atmosphere, we find that such warming of the surface by greenhouse gases does not exist.
The problem with the AGW idea is that its proponents think that the Earth is isolated and that the heat engine only works on the surface of the ground. They fail to take into account that incoming heat from the Sun is transferred by conduction from surface to subsurface materials, which store heat until the incidence of direct solar radiation declines, explicitly during nighttime.
At nighttime, the heat stored by the subsurface materials is transferred by conduction towards the surface, which is colder than the unexposed materials below the surface. The heat transferred from the subsurface layers to the surface is then transported by the air by means of convection and warms up. The upwelling photon stream affects the directionality of the radiation emitted by the atmosphere driving it upwards, i.e. towards the upper atmospheric layers and, from there, towards deep space. This process is well described by the next formula:
FSH = -ρ (Cp) (CH) (v (z)) [T (z) – T (0)]
Where FSH is for Sensible Heat Flux, ρ is for density of air, Cp is specific heat capacity of air at constant pressure, CH is the heat transfer coefficient (≈ 0.0013), v (z) is the horizontal wind speed across z, T (z) is the temperature of air at 10 m of altitude, and T (0) is the temperature of the surface.
The “minus” sign means that heat is absorbed by the colder system. For example, the sensible heat flux for a region where the temperature of the surface is 300.15 K, the temperature of air is 293.15 K and the horizontal wind speed is 40 m/s, is 0.443 kJ s/m^2.
I want to make clear that this formula applies to both ocean and land heat transfer, although on land it is more appropriate introducing CD instead of CH. However, CD ≈ CH ≈ 0.0013.
The sensible heat flux (day and night) is directed upwards, that is, from the surface to the atmosphere (Peixoto & Oort. 1992. Page 233).
Concluding, atmospheric gases do not cause any warming of the surface given that induced emission prevails over spontaneous emission. During daytime, solar irradiance induces air molecules to emit photons towards the surface; however, the load of Short Wave Radiation (SWR) absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere is exceptionally low, while the load of Long Wave Radiation (LWR) emitted from the surface and absorbed by the atmosphere is high and so leads to an upwelling induced emission of photons which follows the outgoing trajectory of the photon stream, from lower atmospheric layers to higher atmospheric layers, and finally towards outer space. The warming effect (misnamed “the greenhouse effect") of Earth is due to the oceans, the ground surface and subsurface materials. Atmospheric gases act only as conveyors of heat.