The accuracy of any future prediction is limited to the completeness of the current understanding, which is based on empirical measurements. You may sense hot and cold but until the invention of the thermometer you could not quantify temperature. The same with the hydrometer for relative humidity, barometer for atmospheric pressure and anemometer for wind speed. As these instruments gained wider distribution there was an ever-increasing database to establish trend lines.
, written in 1941 is considered to be the origins of this branch of science. Based solely on its predictive powers, this is far from perfected science. Realizing that less than a century of measurements from very limited regions of the Earth might be limiting their accuracy, a new branch was added called Paleoclimatology. There has been exponential growth in information on these new branches of science in the last few decades.
It is not internecine snobbery to mention the shortcomings of these new branches of science. Engineers had no method of calculating multi-bay, multi-story structural loads until the 1920’s and could not do three-dimensional analysis until the dawn of the computer age. It was the 1980’s before there were accurate calculation methods for seismic loads. We have all benefited from this information super highway.
To extend knowledge of past events beyond the limits of actual measurements, Earth scientists developed a range of proxy measurements. But every proxy has an unknown correction factor. Consider the use of tree growth rings as a proxy measurement of past precipitation. The actual tree ring growth is the measure of the total of all environmental factors. If volcanic ash limited sunshine, if volcanic particulates deposited harmful chemicals, if pest or disease were prevalent during the growth cycle, then the size of growth rings is not a direct indication of precipitation. Years with sudden, intense rainfall might actually have higher levels than years with more even distribution.
Without complete and accurate information all math models rapidly compound the errors and result in hopelessly incorrect future projections. The folly of the Warmist movement is that carbon dioxide is a primary climate factor and that the tiny portion of proposed reductions in the human emitted gas would have a measurable effect. Had the planet’s climate been stable for millions of years and there was a measurable link of temperature and atmospheric CO2 then there could be AGW plausibility. Such is not the case.
Humanity suffers from a greatly exaggerated sense of self-importance. While we can have minor impact on the environment and species extinction, it is nature that holds all of the trump cards in environment game. In his excellent book, Underworld
, author, Graham Hancock documents literate, but due to our inability to translate, societies that are still labeled as prehistoric. The very real climate change that those ancestors faced would earn scorn for today’s Warmists. Plato’s tale of Atlantis and Noah’s struggle with a flood were very real events just now being proven.
Too numerous to list or detail in a single article, it is worth noting just a few of the geologic events which occurred independent of man or atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The Warmist could gain credibility if they could explain the Younger Dryas (the younger of three events), the Flandarian Transgression, the Dalton Minimum or the Malankovitch cycle. All of the events occurred in the last 400,000 years and are captured in Greenland and Antarctica ice core gases so touted by the AGW movement.
The Last Glacial Maximum lasted for 100,000 years and most of the northern and southern hemispheres were covered in thousands of feet of ice. Ocean levels were 400 feet lower than today. Then 21,000 years ago these huge masses began to suddenly melt, then refreeze, then melt, then refreeze. The final freeze, the Younger Dryas, began approximately 13,000 years ago. The final violent thaw began 11,000 years ago. Coincidently 90% of all large North American mammals disappeared at this time.
What we consider ‘terra firma’ is in fact more like a molten rock pudding with a thin plastic crust. The Ice Age overburden from up to 3.5 kilometers of ice deformed this crust. As the ice melted huge pools of water formed on top of and below the ice caps. At some point these trapped oceans of ice melt began to flow. Underworld
then describes what happened:
“…as a glacial wave proceeded across an ice sheet…it could have attained heights of 600 meters and a cross sectional breadth of as much as 40 kilometers, and a forward speed of several hundred kilometers per hour.”
Suddenly relieved of over burden the Earth’s crust rebounded, fracturing the remaining ice cap and sending the even larger volumes of underlying ice melt and mountain sized glacial chunks to the sea. The entire Earth would have been racked with tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, all while oceans rose in meters almost instantly. While there were humans around to witness these events, there is no evidence that they in any way caused these or any of the numerous other major climate changes.
The LGM did not end as a result of massive carbon dioxide build up. Nor did the LGM end from massive increase of solar radiation from a 100,000 year long dormancy to a new 12,000 year long period of slightly higher relative stability. There must be an enormous Earth force which is always present, but subject to periodic and dramatic shifts in output.
Like planetary crime scene investigators we now know what did not cause this repeated shift, evidence is everywhere, and the suspect is still at the scene. Geo-nuclear has the opportunity but does it act randomly and alone. It is possible that cosmic rays, neutrino bombardment, planetary alignments, gravity waves or galactic radiation could all have a role in triggering Geo-nuclear reactions. Once again we are limited by empirical data from anything but speculation.
The Inter GOVERNMENTAL
Panel on Climate Change has given itself jurisdiction over world climate. Let’s see. A government
panel of largely undeveloped nations is to decide if there needs to be additional government agencies
funded by carbon use tax on only the developed nations. With that directive, the studies funded by the IPCC are predictable. The UN is hardly the oracle of objectivity.
‘Deniers’ are dismissed as energy industry paid hacks, when few have any links. Meanwhile the Warmist conflicts are everywhere. GE produces windmills, owns NBC who promotes AGW and its political supporters, who in turn direct government contracts to GE. A great article on these hidden economic forces is The Great American Bubble Machine
by Matt Taibbi in the July issue of Rolling Stone. The great carbon power point pimp Gore has Jezebel Nobel on one arm and Oscarina, the Hollywood Harlot on the other. These are a most unworthy set of champions for any cause.
“You don’t need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows” according to Bob Dylan. You don’t need a PhD to read the writing on the wall. If you gathered the worlds greatest experts on tile chips you could get endless reports on the base clays, the ceramic coatings and information on the firing methods and none would notice the mosaic. With each new chip the AGW mosaic is getting clearer.
As knowledge continues to increase exponentially we may soon have many more answers. We may reach the scientific harmonic convergence when all scientifically grounded Warmists will be converted. Those adherents with hatred for humanity or capitalism will await the next society-bashing trend. The elitists who envisioned this scam will surely have a fall back bubble-blowing position.
Our supreme leader flippantly dismissed questions on massive cap and trade tax increases with the phrase “Everyone is going to have skin in the game”. That can only mean one thing. We are all going to be skinned. If passed by the Senate, then the Waxman-Markey Bill will gladly distribute our fleeced skin to the moneychangers in the temple.
The Holocene (last 11,000 years) have been a wonderful time for humanity. That it will end is a certainty. That the end will be a violent climatic change with enormous challenges for all living things is also certain. That humans will cause global warming in defiance of the next pending Ice Age…what is that artificially colored sugar water that you are drinking?
Joseph A Olson, PE
July 20, 2009