Monday, August 10th 2009, 2:52 PM EDT
The end is nigh
I explained my problems with the Water Research Commission in earlier e-mails. The impasse continues. They erroneously believe that climate change has to be accommodated in water resource applications. I have repeatedly demonstrated that no such linkage exists.
The favourite tactic of the climate alarmists when faced with a problem is to keep their mouths shut in the hopes that it will go away. This one will not go away. It will only get worse. The only question is when will the implosion occur?
For the past seven months I have had an ongoing conflict with the Water Research Commission. I have repeatedly warned them that South Africa faces the imminent (and deadly), combination of rapidly depleting water supplies and severe droughts.
It has taken me six months to produce the first draft of my 620-page handbook ‘Analytical methods for water resource development and management'. It includes solutions to these problems. The draft is now on CDs but may not be distributed for study and comment without the Commission's permission. But for the past two months they have not responded to my requests.
I now refer them to the tale of the young egret that found itself in a similar situation.
Cattle egrets follow the heels of grazing cattle. They feed on grasshoppers and other insects disturbed by the cattle. This young egret followed too close behind a cow. The cow lifted up its tail covering the egret with a sticky mess. The cow moved on. Eventually the egret managed to get its head free and shouted for help. An eagle flying high above heard the cry. It swooped down and gobbled up the helpless egret.
The moral of this story is that when you are in trouble, whatever you do, keep your mouth shut. This young egret had a choice. Remain in the droppings or be gobbled up. The Water Research Commission has a similar choice. But things are coming to a head. Please read the attached memo 24/09.
The single illustration in the memo captures the essence of the whole climate change dispute. I have hundreds of them but this is one of my favourites. From an engineering point of view (floods and droughts) the most important property of climate is how rainfall and river flow VARY WITH TIME from minutes through to decades, but particularly from year to year. Look closely at the illustration. You will see that the three horizontal axes are all time-related. But time does not feature in those huge global climate models. It is like holding an athletics meeting without stopwatches.
Global climate models use temperature instead of time as their principal variable. But the world is cooling. Please read on.
PS. My niece swims across the English Channel for charity on Thursday. These challenges seem to be a family inheritance.
Please download PDF file to read FULL report from Will Alexander