The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, an index of weather patterns over the North Pacific Ocean, has coincided with periods of warming and cooling over the last century (JISAO, 2008).
You know the wheels are falling off the manmade global warming bandwagon when even the mainstream media begin publishing reports of major scientists who challenge it.
The UK's MailOnline did just that this week under the headline The mini ice age starts here
. Lead paragraph? "The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world's most eminent climate scientists."
Right. MailOnline reporter David Rose doesn't call them "the world's leading climate skeptics." He calls them "some of the world's most eminent climate scientists"--and he goes on to cite "Mojib Latif, a leading member of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)," "Anastasios Tsonis, head of the University of Wisconsin Atmospheric Sciences Group," and "William Gray, emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University."
Contrary to fears of inexorably diminishing Arctic sea ice, Rose cites the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center as reporting that "Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007." Though snow's been unusual for most of the southern half of the United Kingdom in recent decades, the Mail published the accompanying satellite photo of Great Britain during the recent cold snap. The island is essentially all covered with snow.
Rose reported record lows as far south as Cuba--something I can attest to, living near Miami in south Florida, where we experienced sub-freezing weather over the weekend. He quoted Tsonis as saying that last week 56% of the United States was covered by snow--something that hasn't happened in several decades. And the "'Arctic oscillation'--a weather pattern that sees the development of huge 'blocking' areas of high pressure in northern latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south . . . is at its strongest for at least 60 years. As a result, the jetstream--the high-altitude wind that circles the globe from west to east and normally pushes a series of wet but mild Atlantic lows across Britain--is currently running not over the English Channel but the Strait of Gibraltar."
Consequently, most of the Northern Hemisphere is much colder this winter than it's been in decades--and the Southern Hemisphere is cooler, too.
According to Rose, Latif, Tsonis, and other scientists attribute the cold shift primarily to a shift in the world's dominant ocean circulations--the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation--from a warm phase to a cool phase, something that happens about every 20 to 30 years. "The scientists' predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide levels rise. They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a 'warm mode' as opposed to the present 'cold mode'."
That's a point made by Dr. Roy W. Spencer in the science chapter of the Cornwall Alliance's new document A Renewed Call to Truth, Prudence, and Protection of the Poor: An Evangelical Examination of the Theology, Science, and Economics of Global Warming
and illustrated in the graph above.
"A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles," said Latif, "perhaps as much as 50 per cent. They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer. The extreme retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there may well be some cooling."
Tsonis also believes that the ocean current cycles dominated global climate change in the 20th century, including the post-1970s, the period many point to as driven by human greenhouse gas emissions, but he doesn't venture to attribute specific percentages to the natural and human causes. "I do not believe in catastrophe theories," Rose quoted him as saying. "Man-made warming is balanced by the natural cycles, and I do not trust the computer models which state that if CO2 reaches a particular level then temperatures and sea levels will rise by a given amount. These models cannot be trusted to predict the weather for a week, yet they are running them to give readings for 100 years."
Gray went farther: "Most of the rise in temperature from the Seventies to the Nineties was natural. Very little was down to CO2--in my view, as little as five to ten per cent."
Gray, Tsonis, and Latif all agreed that the findings about the ocean currents undermined the credibility of the computer climate models on which the IPCC and other alarmists rely.
Such findings support the Cornwall Alliance's view that global climate changes are overwhelmingly natural, not manmade, that human contribution to them is not dangerous, and that the effort to fight global warming is needless, with costs far exceeding benefits.
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By doing so, you'll join about 500 others who have endorsed it so far
[Organization and title are listed for identification only, and do not imply organizational endorsement. Read the Declaration and add your name today!
ministry leaders like Tony Perkins (President, Family Research Council); Tom Minnery (Executive Vice President, Focus on the Family); Wendy Wright (President, Concerned Women for America); David Barton (President, Wallbuilders); Gary DeMar (President, American Vision); Rev. Lou Sheldon (President, Traditional Values Coalition); Dr. Ted Baehr (President, Christian Film and Television Commission & Movieguide); Hector Padron (Executive Vice President, Coral Ridge Ministries); Mark Tooley (President, Institute on Religion and Democracy); Rev. John Sorensen (President, Evangelism Explosion International); Dr. Ray Bohlin (President, Probe Ministries); Marita Littauer (President, CLASServices, Inc.); Rev. Robert L. Allen (President and Director, Midwest Apologetics Research Service); Dr. John L. Yeats (Director of Communications, Louisiana Baptist Convention); Shannon Royce (Executive Director, Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation); Dr. E. Calvin Beisner (Founder, National Spokesman, Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation); John Sanford (President, Feed My Sheep Foundation); Mark Williamson (Founder and President, Federal Intercessors); Mark Nordtvedt (Executive Director, Sound the Alarm); Leanne Payne (President, Pastoral Care Ministries); Rev. R. C. Sproul Jr. (President, Highlands Ministries); John Stonestreet (Executive Director, Summit Ministries); Julie Walsh (Coordinator, Freedom Action); Jerry Johnson (President, NiceneCouncil.com); Donna Hearne (Executive Director, Constitutional Coalition); Rev. Charles A. Dunahoo (Coordinator, Christian Education & Publication, Presbyterian Church in America); Gary J. Palmer (President, Alabama Policy Institute); John Aman (Director of Communications, Coral Ridge Ministries); Rev. Robert Andrews (Director, Gospel Parenting)
theologians, philosophers, ethicists, and pastors like Dr. Richard Land and Dr. Barrett Duke (President and Vice President, Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention); Dr. William Dembski (Research Professor in Philosophy, Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary); Dr. Daniel Heimbach (Professor of Christian Ethics, Southeastern Baptist Theological Seminary); Dr. Wayne Grudem (Research Professor of Theology, Phoenix Seminary); Dr. C. Ben Mitchell (Graves Chair of Moral Philosophy, Union University); Dr. Nelson Kloosterman (Professor of Ethics and New Testament, Mid-America Reformed Seminary); Dr. John Warwick Montgomery (Distinguished Research Professor of Philosophy and Christian Thought, Patrick Henry College, and Director, International Academy of Apologetics, Evangelism and Human Rights); Dr. Bruce Ware (Professor of Christian Theology, Southern Baptist Theological Seminary); Dr. Peter Jones (Director, Christian Witness to a Pagan Planet, and Adjunct Professor and Scholar in Residence, Westminster Theological Seminary, Escondido, CA); Dr. Douglas Groothuis (Professor of Philosophy, Denver Seminary); Dr. Mark Coppenger (Professor of Apologetics, Southern Baptist Theological Seminary); Rev. Jay Dennis (Senior Pastor, First Baptist Church-at-the-Mall, Lakeland, FL); Rev. Dr. David Hall (Senior Pastor, Midway Presbyterian Church, Powder Springs, GA); Rev. Dr. George Grant (Pastor, Christ Community Church, Franklin, TN); Dr. David Wells (Distinguished Research Professor of Theology, Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary, South Hamilton, MA); Rev. Gary Nelson (Senior Pastor, Vineyard Church of Scottsdale); Rev. Cecil Siriwardene (Senior Pastor, Sovereign Grace Bible Church); Rev. Chad Sadorf (Pastor, First Presbyterian Church, Villa Rica, GA); Rev. Paul Sagan (Pastor, Covenant Presbyterian Church, Fayetteville, AR); Rev. Kenneth Pierce (Senior Minister, Trinity Presbyterian Church, Jackson, MS); Rev. John G. Kearns (Pastor, Christ Harbor United Methodist Church, Northport, AL); Dr. Thomas Ice (Associate Professor of Theology, Liberty University); Rev. James R. Carlson (Pastor, Plymell Union Church, Garden City, KS); Dr. H. Wayne House (Distinguished Research Professor, Faith Evangelical Seminary); Rev. Christian A. Bayles (Pastor, Resurrection Free Methodist Church, Oklahoma City, OK); Rev. Steve Fargo (Teacher/Minister, Church of the Nazarene, Denton, TX); Rev. Ken Crabb (Pastor, Arden Presbyterian Church, Arden, NC); Rev. Stuart V. Burt (Assistant Pastor, Grace Lutheran Church, Grand Island, NE); Dr. Robert L. Reymond (Emeritus Professor of Systematic Theology, Knox Theological Seminary and Covenant Theological Seminary); Rev. Dennis M. Cahill (Pastor, Christ Community Church, Piscataway, NJ); Rev. Charlie Vaughn (Pastor, Austin Baptist Church, Austin, NV); Rev. Hector P. Gonzalez Jr. (Pastor, New Creation Church, Hialeah, FL); Rev. David A. Queener (Pastor, Covenant Reformed Presbyterian Church, Knoxville, TN); Rev. Gary Rogers (Pastor, N. Pownal Congregational Church, N. Pownal, VT); Rev. Ron Heffield (Pastor, New Life Community Church, C&MA, Orlando, FL); Rev. Gus Flores (Senior Pastor, Calvary Chapel, Coral Springs, FL); Rev. Richard Todd (Pastor, Las Americas Baptist Church, Hollywood, FL); Rev. William V. Welzien (Pastor, Keys Presbyterian Church, OPC, Key West, FL); Dr. Michael Bauman (Professor of Theology and Culture, Hillsdale College); Dr. Gregg R. Allison (Professor of Christian Theology, Southern Baptist Theological Seminary); Dr. Jay Wegter (Professor of Theology, The Master's College); Rev. Wayne Rogers (Pastor, Providence Reformed Presbyterian Church, Stockbridge, GA); Rev. Brian Rihner (Pastor, Grace Evangelical Free Church, Denison, IA); Rev. Lawrence C. Roff (Senior Pastor, First Presbyterian Church, Schenectady, NY); Rev. Dr. Joseph Ton (President, Romanian Missionary Society); Dr. Thomas Sieger Derr (Emeritus Professor of Religion and Ethics, Smith College); Rev. Jim Tonkowich (independent scholar, former President, Institute on Religion and Democracy)
scientists and medical doctors like Dr. Roy W. Spencer (Principal Research Scientist in Climatology, University of Alabama, Huntsville, U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua Satellite, and author of Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians, and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor); Dr. David Legates (Associate Professor of Climatology, University of Delaware); Dr. Guillermo Gonzalez (Associate Professor of Physics, Grove City College); Dr. Michael Salazar (Associate Professor of Chemistry, Union University); Dr. James Wanliss (Associate Professor of Physics, Presbyterian College); Dr. Victor Goldschmidt (Emeritus Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue University); Gordon Evans (Environmental Manager, Texas A&M University System); Dr. Neil Frank (Chief Meteorologist, WHOU-TV, Houston, and former Director, National Hurricane Center); Dr. Joseph D'Aleo (Executive Director and Certified Meteorologist, Icecap, and first Director of Meteorology, The Weather Channel); Dr. Glenn Marsch (Professor of Physics, Grove City College); James Spann (Chief Meteorologist, ABC 33/40, Birmingham, AL); Dr. Ronald Marks (Professor of Chemistry, North Greenville University); Jeffrey Mahn (Principal Member of Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories); Dr. Lawrence McHargue (Emeritus Professor of Botany and Ecology, Vanguard University); Ed Payne, M.D. (retired Professor of Family Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, founder and editor of The Journal of Biblical Ethics in Medicine); Hilton Terrell, M.D. (physician in private practice); Harry V. Wiant Jr. (retired, Joseph E. Ibberson Chair, School of Forest Resources, Pennsylvania State University); Stan G. Smith (Professor of Math and Physics, South Plains College); Jonathan Clough (Operations Research Analyst, U.S. Air Force); Scott Sands, M.D. (President and Physician, Ecosystems Products LLC); Sonji L. Boyd, M.D. (physician in private practice); Dr. Michael J. Oard (retired atmospheric scientist); Gene Hawkins (consulting geologist); Dr. John Baumgardner (President, Logos Research Associates, former developer of global ocean and climate models, Los Alamos National Laborary); Dr. Larry Vardiman (Chairman, Department of Astrogeophysics, Institute for Creation Research); Raymond K. Mason (retired forester, Fellow of the American Society of Foresters); Dr. James A. Brandt (Assistant Professor, Microbiology, Loma Linda University); Dr. Theodore Richerzhagen III (chemist); Ellery S. Meyers (Engineer, Oak Ridge National Laboratory); Dr. Philip Pennance (Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Puerto Rico); Anthony J. Sadar (Certified Consulting Meteorologist, Environmental Science Communication); Mark Stacy (Environmental Specialist, Senior Hydrogeologist, Lidstone & Associates); H. S. Woffenden (retired forester); Daryl A. Doughty (retired physics professor); Robert Stephen Adams, M.D., FACOG (private physician); Bill Freeman (retired environmental and chemical engineer); Gregory W. McCall (Senior Engineer, American Electric Power); Dr. Edward C. Krug (retired soil and water chemist, Illinois Water Survey); Philip Ranheim, M.D. (physician private practice); Dr. Steven L. Hayes (Research Scientist, Nuclear Science & Technology Directorate, Idaho National Laboratory); Rev. Charles Clough (retired atmospheric scientist and pastor);
economists like Dr. Cornelis van Kooten (Professor of Economics and Research Chair in Environmental Studies and Climate, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, Expert Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change); Dr. Ross McKitrick (Associate Professor of Economics, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada, Expert Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change); Dr. Kenneth W. Chilton (Founder and Emeritus Director, Institute for the Study of Economics and the Environment, Lindenwood College); Dr. Charles Van Eaton (Emeritus Distinguished Professor at Large and Director of the Institute for Critical Thought and Analysis, Bryan College, Dayton, TN); Dr. Tracy Miller (Associate Professor of Economics, Grove City College); Dr. Shawn Ritenour (Associate Professor of Economics, Grove City College); Larry Reed (President, Foundation for Economic Education); Dr. Sacha Walicord (Associate Professor of Economics, Mount Vernon Nazarene University); Dr. Jeffrey M. Doyle (President, Thermoeconomics); Dr. Timothy Terrell (Associate Professor of Economics, Wofford College);
Christian education leaders and other academics like Dr. Stephen Livesay (President, Bryan College, Dayton, TN); Dr. Joseph Pipa (President, Greenville Presbyterian Theological Seminary, Greenville, SC); Dr. Matthew Staver (Dean and Professor of Law, Liberty University, and Chairman, Liberty Counsel, Lynchburg, VA); John Sparks (Dean of Arts and Letters, Grove City College, Grove City, PA); Dr. Kenneth Talbot (President, Whitefield Theological Seminary); Dr. K. Alan Snyder (Professor of History, Southeastern University); Dr. Michael L. Thompson (Academic Dean, Professor of Old Testament, Rocky Mountain Bible College); Dr. Paul C. Boling (Chairman, Christian Studies Division, Bryan College); Dr. Joseph Childs (Dean, College of Business and Legal Studies, Southeastern University); Dr. Bradley G. Green (Associate Professor of Christian Studies, Union University); Dr. James P. Bartlett (Executive Director, Biblical Concourse of Home Universities); Sen. John Andrews (Director, Centennial Institute, Colorado Christian University); Dr. William Watson (Professor of History, Colorado Christian University); Dr. Dominic Aquila (President, New Geneva Theological Seminary); Dr. David Revell (Professor, Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Southeastern University); Dr. Kevin L. Clauson (Professor of Government, Director of the Center for Law and Policy, Bryan College)
Christian media and publishing personalities like Janet Parshall (Host, Janet Parshall's America); Joel Belz (Founder, World magazine); Bryan Fischer (Director of Issues and Analysis, American Family Association); Pat Boone (singer and National Spokesman of the 60 Plus Association); John Van Dyke (Editor, Christian Renewal); Rev. Frank J. Smith (Editor, Presbyterian International News Service); Rev. Marvin Padgett (P&R Publishing);
and hundreds of laymen from all over America.