Latest CRUEL WINTER UPDATE NEWS issued 03:00hrs GMT 12/13 Dec
At this point - two days ahead of the start of our WeatherAction extreme ('Red') weather warning windows we normally monitor what the Met Office says in the Short range and double (or more) the snow they predict. However the Met Office havnt yet (12/13 Dec) given any snow amounts on TV to double!
This is a pity because I suspect after their blunder in Scotland* - where our doubling plus of MetO 2 days ahead turned out to be a good estimate - they are playing safe; but Guy's let's get real; the public need to know and you giving a figure and us doubling it is better than no figure (NB if you double it yourselves first please let us know or there will be a mess!)
Nevertheless we, WeatherAction, advise
1. We note MO have shifted the "wintry" threat they originally foresaw into a snow blast to come earlier than they were saying so it is now in line with our timing with the main hit coming on 15th/16th (ie starting in Scotland on 15th and working South). Flow will be more from North than in our month ahead forecast** issued 29 Nov which had a more NorthEasterly flow. This brings a bigger hit to Scotland but little change to England.
2. The snow will be more widespread than MO appear to be saying at present and top amounts over the blast period could be a foot in places. The hit in Scotland will be once again MORE than the Met Office present forecast. NOTE DRIFTING WILL MAKE NEW SNOW DEPTHS MANY FEET IN PLACES.
3. Our next WeatherAction Weather period 17-20 Dec predicts EXTREME COLD with 'records likely to be broken'. This means a very severe ice hazard because it will be too cold for road salt to work in a lot of Central, North & NorthEast parts of the UK.
4. For information WeatherAction World extreme events forecasts** for second half December show some interesting opposite heatwave events in part of Australia at the same time as some of the snow blasts in Brit / Europe.
5. Please pass on this forecast advice to emergency services, newspapers etc; acknowledgement requested in any publication.
* Scotland's crisis http://bit.ly/hSUPqx
** Full forecasts via http://www.weatheraction.com/
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Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist, ARCS, FRAS, FRMetS
WeatherAction long range weather & Climate forecasters