I kept me mouth shut last year when the UKMET folks had the warmest year ever forecasted because of the el nino. And it was a good forecast in my opinion since even if it did not make it, it was close. BUT I HAD NO PROBLEM WITH THAT because it wasnt that big a deal. If we look at the sat data over the last 30 years, and stack on the nino, well I had no problem with the forecast being close to my idea. I did get into a disagreement the winter before with the cold I thought we would have, not a top 5 mild winter, but going into that, I actually pointed out that the summer of 2009 was warm as they said, though it did rain more.
However now, if what I hear is right, we have a disagreement. Assuming there is a forecast for a global temp in 2011 of .44C above normal, down from 2010, then there is a major disagreement as I have near normal forecast for 2011!
So we shall see who is closer.
BTW Jan looks like it will come in at about .1C BELOW normal!!! The forecast for Dec was .2C above ( it was .18C) The drop to below normal has occurred faster than I thought ( I had it making it there in March.
So in this case, again assuming what I hear from my sources is correct, we do have a debate.
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