I have just completed a 10 year research programme into the causes of the UK floods in Autumn 2000 and conclusively demonstrate (Ref 1) their risk was very likely (a 2 in 3 chance) exacerbated by the millennium bug. The correlation between the floods and the exponential growth of the bug which started in January 2000, a full 9 months previously is widely accepted and fully piers reviewed. The other reason why we can be so confident is that we know of no other reason, or to be more precise there are allegedly plenty of other reasons but we don’t want to know them because our bug research grant needs renewal and it was hard enough to spin this one out for ten years.
this level of drivel is only surpassed by the recent ‘Nature’ - Met Office – BBC publication – one-sided propagation by the familiar anti-science spin axis of ‘studies’ to the effect that Man-made CO2 contributed to the floods in 2000 and more intense precipitation in general.
1. If there were any truth in their claims we would have seen a continuous increase in floods (and other extremes according to their catechism) during the last century and also in the last ten years because CO2 has been rising continuously. BUT THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE WHATSOEVER IN GENERAL FLOOD INCIDENCE OR STORMINESS IN THE UK, USA or THE WORLD.
This fact – for UK rainfall - was reported on Sat 13 Feb 2010 by leading hydrologists to a joint meeting of British Hydrological Society and the Royal Meteorological Society held in Physics Lecture Theatre 1 Imperial College London. The corresponding lack of increase in severe storms, Hurricanes, any extreme events and a decline in US tornadoes is also well documented – See references with graphs in WeatherActionNews 2010no27 pdf link http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=222&c=1
All the extremes that have happened in the last decade – including very severe extremes in the last 9 months have happened before (indeed that is largely how they are scientifically predicted using solar magnetic studies) – have happened before in the last few hundred years when there was less CO2. So they weren’t caused by CO2 but something else – the Sun – which is still around!
2. These ‘findings’ come from the same para-science cult which told the world in 2000 that Britain and many other places would see the end of snow and the USA much milder winters by 2010. Could they have been more wrong?
Now they say warming (judged by fiddled data) causes cooling and snow!!
3. Their many parametered ‘finger-printing’ methods are open to adjustment – ‘fudging’ - to get the desired result and in the end are opaque discredited hocus pocus.
Previous such ‘tricks’ of supposedly ‘fingerprinting’ temperature data for a spread of ‘emissions’ to detect some sort of signal in fact did nothing of the sort. The many adjustable parameters of the amounts of different emissions + volcanoes etc were adjusted to give the appearance of ‘fitting’ 1990 to 2000 but that same ‘proven’ model then failed TOTALLY to predict any of the decade 2000 to 2010 which cooled (even by already fudged (‘undeclined’) temperature data) rather than the large warming they predicted.
If their rain ‘model’ was worth a dime it would have predicted the last ten years of rain in the UK but the Met Office promised the UK barbecue summers for 2007, 2008, & 2009 and instead we got floods floods and more floods - all as predicted by WeatherAction using solar activity.
I challenge the authors of these papers to predict UK rainfall over the next 5 years using their ‘model’.
The lesson of their methods is that fudge can fill a spoon of any shape but doesn’t stretch very far in the real world. That needs candy floss - which is where Myles Allen, a leading participant in the study, of Oxford University came in a few years ago with his climate change by participatory computers. In this by essentially holding computer buttons children and some grown-ups were led to ‘feel’ they were advancing knowledge when in fact all they were doing was helping put rubbish into a climate model so they could associate with and believe the rubbish which came out. This is brainwashing – made in Oxford University and a disgrace.
And what happened to his participatory results? Remember? ‘Maybe runaway warming in a few years?! – End of Snow?! Etc etc. Where are we now? 100 year record snow and cold
levels in Britain, much of Europe, USA, South Korea etc and world average temperatures are going down and down. Their answer? Do something like it again but for rain with another grant at public expense.
"Now here is the Optimal rain/shine fingerprint forecast”
The originators of the report write "These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique”.
So WHAT ARE THEY MEASURING AND TESTING? Well it doesn’t sound like actual floods and rain as the Hydrologists reported on at the meting on 13 Feb 2010 but ‘multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation as seen though an optimal fingerprint’. Ah well, remember that. Next time it floods when they predicted a dry summer expect the statement ‘No it’s OK this flood is an optimal fingerprint of a dry spell caused by CO2!” And they can bring back Michel Fish to do Optimal rain/shine fingerprint forecasting.
It will make betting on the weather pretty hard. Could we gamble on optimal fingerprints? I wonder if farmers would care to buy forecasts of optimal rain/shine fingerprints!
There is no way they can distinguish between warming by various causes or distinguish between natural CO2 (0.04% of atmosphere) or man’s CO2 (4% of natural = 0.0016% of atmosphere and that is ALL of it – one mm on the top of big Ben Tower if that represented the atmosphere). For optimal fingerprinting read flexible fudge.
4. The Met Office-BBC Goebbels-esque spin support machine cites ‘Risk Management Solutions’
as the key number crunchers who produced this result (Met Office Report above ‘In collaboration with Risk Management Solutions (RMS), developers of risk models for the insurance industry, the team then fed the output from these weather simulations into a flood model, and found that 20th century greenhouse gas emissions very likely increased the chances of floods occurring in autumn 2000 ……..”)
This is the same Risk Management Solutions which was caught Green-handed inserting a misleading graph into the UN’s Climate Committee (the IPCC) –
and producing what has been described as highly questionable ‘predictions’
in its advice to the swimming-in-money-on-the-back-of-climate-hype-re-insurance-industry -
Given the central role of RMS in the Climate hysteria industry with all its ClimateGate ‘data fraud’ could their ‘feeding of output’ produce anything other than the desired optimal fingerprint? It is like asking (now ex-) President Mubarak to organise the ‘counting’ of votes and being surprised he always got ‘optimal’ results and reminiscent of research sponsored by the tobacco industry from whence came carbon billionaire (or pretty close to it!*) Al Gore.
The tragedy is that this comprehensive desecration of the scientific method continues when ALL the predictions since 2000 of the CO2 warmists have failed and the actual relationship if any between changes in CO2 levels and world temperatures is that – shown by data over thousands and millions of years - in slow general terms sea temperatures DRIVE CO2 levels NOT the other way around
(See eg Weatheraction link above).
The CO2 warmists are now a failed and desperate cult which will go to any lengths to defend their gravy train of carbon trading, the green investment bubble, whacking up energy prices, wind farms (green cult prayer wheels), biofuels etc and to assist governments collect green taxes.
Their game has got so big, bad and dangerous that leading insurers spend millions on flood risk hype (flood maps) and scaremongering but don’t want a long range forecast to find out if a flood will actually come. The claim they really need to know is false. Some do but for the leaders of certain industries the money is in scaremongering and ramping up insurance premiums not prediction and preparation for disasters.
The New York Times spouted CO2 is ‘warm is cold is snow’ disgraceful anti-science rather than warn it’s readers when the next solar-predicted thundersnow deluge would come.
The tragedy is CO2 Warmist policies are causing increased misery by forcing up the cost of living and are killing people not just through unsalted roads and accident arising from warmist UK Met Office mild winter forecasts but now from the significant increase of food prices and consequent price riots and starvation driven by the burning of food – biofuels - in the name of ‘saving the planet’:-
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS TO COME
Piers Corbyn’s WeatherAction long range predictions - which are based on solar activity - of many of the VERY extreme events of the last 9 months have been very successful – including the Russian heatwave and its ending to the day along with the ending of the Pakistan floods, the coldest December for 100 years in Britain, the series of extreme thundersnow blizzards in America including the post Xmas airport snow-up and the giant blizzard of end Jan/start Feb and the simultaneous supercyclone Yasi which thrashed Queensland.
Piers said at various meetings and conferences recently: "It’s time for a reality check. What works works and what doesn’t doesn’t. We can now show the events on the sun which precede our predicted extreme events which we can usually get right 85% of the time to a day or so from months ahead.
The warmists will doubtless claim that driving cars causes solar flares but let’s get real the CO2 cult ‘theory’ can predict NOTHING. It has no value to science, humanity or the economy but only serves to mislead, hold back proper advance in forecasting science and cause suffering a death. It is failed science based on fraudulent data, is dishonest and immoral and must be destroyed.”
"The appearance of very extreme weather events around the world in the last 9 months compared with the relative normality of the last 50 years is driven by predictable solar-lunar influences and will continue for another year or two and we will predict many of them.
"Of course these events are nothing whatsoever to do with CO2 whether from man or nature and increases of CO2 have demonstrably zero affect on the weather. The CO2 warmists will claim anything bad is caused by their delusional ‘theory’ and will continue to suppress our forecasts rather than find themselves unable to claim some extreme weather event is ‘theirs’. They must be challenged at every turn.
For how much longer must we endure the falsity on weather events and climate spouted by Governments and the warmist anti-science sect in their employ?"
Ref 1. Royal Society of Bug Science 2011 Feb 14th p94 "Love a bug decadal cash yield fingerprinting.”