Saturday, August 6th 2011, 8:56 AM EDT
My climate prediction model
The whole climate change issue has reached a critical stage. The next conference takes place in Durban at the end of this year. It has now become clear that the developing countries led by China, India, Brazil and South Africa will not be prepared to enter into binding international agreements to limit their greenhouse gas emissions in the foreseeable future. This will leave the developed nations that have already imposed restrictions out in the cold.
The developed nations are in a minority at UNFCCC’s annual conferences but until now they have had the greatest influence on the discussions. This has changed dramatically. It is clear that the principal developing nations will now have a major role to play.
There is another equally important issue. The producers of the key chapters of the IPCC’s assessment report have deliberately downplayed the critical role of regular periodic variations in received solar energy on global climate and its consequences
It has now become obvious that the major scientific bodies and research institutes in the developed nations were aware of these shortcomings and took steps to suppress the contrarian views and those who propagated them. The policy of the Royal Society and the BBC are examples. I have personal experience of these tactics.
The key event will be in the resumption of the stalled Bonn discussions next month after which South Africa and probably other developing nations will publish their positions.
Last night there was an item on our TV news reporting that below normal seasonal rainfall in the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape has already caused damage to crops. The season is not over yet.
It is very difficult to predict the future of this whole climate change affair. The situation is becoming increasingly unstable and therefore unpredictable on economic, political and scientific grounds. As we all know when a structure becomes unstable the direction and timing of its collapse become increasingly unpredictable.
Another example is democracy versus dictatorship. Dictators can be dethroned but that will not be helpful unless the underlying causes are addressed and solved. This is the situation in many countries in North Africa and the Middle East. NATO's bombs, shells and rockets have not yet toppled Libya’s dictator but have further strained relationships between Europe and Africa. There is rising civil war in Syria. These regional scale disturbances are increasing, not decreasing.
Climate change is low on the priorities of the developing world. It will be interesting to see the tactics of the developed nations between now and the end of the year. The NGO's have started blowing their trumpets but the South African media are showing little interest.
Please consider our climate prediction model described in the attached memo with the above in mind. I hope that you will have enough time over the weekend to go through these memos.
Notice in particular my repeated emphasis on the fundamental error in climate change science which is to assume that the climatic processes are stationary in time and are not influenced by variations in received solar energy and its redistribution via the atmospheric and oceanic processes. Climate change scientists then go one step further. They deliberately suppress this information so that they are able to claim that observed climatic extremes are the consequence of human activities.
On Monday I hope to send you a more technical report by my colleague David Bredenkamp. David responds to this claim when he specifically addresses the causal linkage between solar activity and the Earth’s climate. Climate change scientists will be stranded with nowhere to go. Durban’s beaches are very popular at that time of the year.
As always please distribute this email as widely as possible. Time to seek solutions is getting very short.
Database used in my studies
PS. You should have received six memos 02/11 to 06/11 and their attachments. Please let me know if you had any problems receiving them. I will then send the missing material.
Memo02/11 CLIMATE CHANGE CRISIS
Memo04/11 Mission accomplished
Memo05/11 Global conflicts ahead