..."If global warming alarmists wish to persuade us and lead us they first have to convince us and furthermore earn their status by openness, clarity and honesty....
....The Earth is just a short term way station receiving solar energy, processing it in various ways and then releasing it to space. There is currently no overarching conceptual picture of the entire process into which can be fitted all the myriad details which the ‘experts’ are arguing about....
...Consequently there are no real climate experts. All we have is a wide variety of specialists in other fields that have a bearing on one aspect or another of climate related issues. The number of individuals who could be genuinely regarded as climate specialists is very limited and they are hampered by not being specialists in all the linked areas of science. Indeed the matter of climate is so all encompassing that it would be impossible anyway...."
This article is gaining increasing relevance in the light of recent climate observations and the contents of it and of my various other articles fit well with the findings of:
Joanna Haigh who has suggested that the sign of the solar effect on the atmosphere might need to be reversed due to unexpected ozone quantity responses to the less active sun.
Murry Salby who is suggesting that ocean and soil moisture data shows that the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 might well be entirely from natural causes and Roy Spencer who suggests that variations in oceans and sun affecting global cloudiness make it impossible to verify the sign of the climate system response to more CO2 in the air. To date the consensus has assumed that the system response is positive but in fact it may well turn out to be firmly negative. If the system response is only slightly negative then current IPCC temperature projections are way out. If it is strongly negative then there is no cause for any concern from a climate perspective.
I may integrate their work with mine at a future date when the data is confirmed more clearly
The claims of those who worry about human damage to the climate become ever more strident despite, or perhaps because of, the real world data rapidly diverging from that which they anticipated. ( Figure 1)
It is now 13 years since the 1998 culmination of a period of thirty years of unusual ocean surface warmth that resulted in the atmospheric temperature peak of that year. Additionally during that period the sun was more active than ever previously recorded. ( Figures 2 and 4)
AGW proponents accept that the virtual cessation of warming over the past 13 years (Figure 3) is a result of cooler ocean surfaces but refuse to accept the corollary that the primary cause of the warmer period was warmer ocean surfaces. Warmer oceans also expand. ( Figure 5) and release natural CO2. The apparent levelling off in the sea level rise is coincident with recent cooler ocean surfaces.
It is a recent discovery that the oceans can act for decades at a time as net absorbers OR net emitters of previously accumulated solar energy on a vast and highly variable scale yet AGW proponents still ignore the overwhelming evidence because to acknowledge it would destroy years of fond memories of a publicly funded gold rush encouraged by their fanciful claims to understand climate and be in a position to influence it.
They ask us to believe many impossible things:
a) That despite a historically very active sun there was no solar warming in the latter half of the 20th Century.
b) That despite 30 years of anomalous ocean surface warmth the oceans were not the cause (but it is accepted that recent ocean cooling is the cause of recent atmospheric cooling).
c) That the Arctic has only warmed because of AGW and not as a side effect of warmer ocean water flowing into the Arctic Circle.
d) That although warmer ocean surfaces absorb less CO2 the observed increase in CO2 in the air is all or mostly our fault.
e) That a warmer ocean surface increases the surface/space temperature differential yet does not give rise to a significant increase in loss of energy to space.
f) That models which are abject failures in predicting changes in global temperature trend should be used to inform policy decisions up to 100 years hence.
g) That the current cooling is weather but the earlier warming was climate.
Click source to download PDF file and read the "Unifying Theory of Earth’s Climate" (Revised) by Stephen Wilde.