Figure 1. This is the temperature anomaly from a 1930-1980 baseline for 22 mid-western small-town locations. The bold black trace is the average for those stations.
The recent issuing of four papers by Dr. Richard Muller, et al, has increased the on-line discussions of temperatures over the last decade. There are several claims in the first of these papers that deserve study:
1. “…The global land mean temperature has increased by 0.911 ±0.042 C since the 1950s…”
2. “The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) gives an operational definition of climate as the average weather over a period of 30 years (Arguez and Vose 2011).”
3. “No part of the Earth’s land surface shows appreciable cooling.”
These assertions will be addressed in the course of this article. For material, 83 locations were selected from the GISS database. In an attempt to limit urban warming affects and the “adjustments” applied by GISS, a strict selection process was used. The selection criteria were: less than 10,000 population, as much as possible, a continuous record from 1940 or before to the present, and no splicing of records. Fifty-six of these locations are in the U. S. in four regions. Twenty-two stations were in the mid-west, in Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa; fifteen stations in the north-west “inland empire,” eastern Oregon, Washington, and western Idaho; nine stations in the desert south-west, southern Utah and New Mexico; and ten stations in the south-east, Alabama and Georgia.
In the rest of the world, ten stations were found in the Arctic and Siberia, six stations bordering the North Atlantic Ocean, and thirteen stations in the southern hemisphere, in South American, Australia, the south Atlantic, and south Pacific. All of these stations are well away from any population centers and are isolated or in or close to very small towns and villages. These will be explored in Part 2.
For each station, a temperature anomaly was computed, using the average temperature from 1930 to 1980 as the baseline. This baseline was chosen because it is in the middle of the period for many of the records, and because it includes both a warm and a cold era. Figure 1 shows the result for the 22 stations in the U.S. mid-west.
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