The Met Office have also recently issued their 3 month outlook for May to July. For temperatures, they have this to say.
SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years. However, predictability for both periods tends to be low, with current forecasts indicating greater-than-average uncertainty in UK weather patterns as early as the beginning of May. May is also a month where there can still be large swings in temperature depending on the prevailing wind direction and so cold spells are still possible despite the most likely scenario being for above-normal temperatures. The probability that the UK-mean temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
Britain's coldest May in more than 300 years will deliver 50mph gales, 5cm (2in) of rain and flooding.
Central England temperatures so far this month average 8.6C, 1.6C below normal.
The last time May was colder was in 1698, at 8.5C over the whole month.
And the Met Office has warned that weeks of wet weather ahead could wash out the Queen’s diamond jubilee celebrations.
The Environment Agency issued two flood warnings and 14 alerts, warning of high tides swamping coastlines across South Wales.
Up to 2cm of rain will fall across the south and Midlands today. Severe weather warnings have been issued in the south-west. Wednesday and Thursday will see many parts hit by another 3cm of rain – totalling 5cm, or a month’s worth, in 24 hours – with localised flooding and transport problems expected. Warnings have been issued....
After a mini heatwave and the wettest April on record, now parts of Britain are braced for a taste of some wintry weather.
Forecasters say it will be turning much colder as we head towards the weekend, with some areas seeing unseasonable frost and sub-zero temperatures.
Sky weather presenter Nazaneen Ghaffar said: "It’s all thanks to a cold front slowly moving southwards across the UK on Friday.
This will bring with it colder air into northern areas
It'll be chilly for Scotland and Northern Ireland and northern Scotland could see a few wintry showers. "On Saturday again some wintry showers are likely over the hills of Scotland."...CLICK to read FULL report from Sky News
I have put up a few comments on this in defense of Piers in another section and it would seem that the event on the Sun on the 17th May (The Sun Finds It's Mojo)) seems to be the main suspect. The event on the Sun went world wide and not only disturbed the Northern European pressure systems that was producing the cold flow of air to the UK but other areas in the World were also having colder then average temperatures at the same time. Take a look at this YouTube produced a day after the major solar event on the Sun and listen to what the forecaster had to say about the weather pattern changes in Northern Europe.
The Irony is that Piers uses the Sun to make longrange forecasts but as you will read from this report from NASA, the Sun does not always do what Piers expects it to do, hence his long range forecasts are never put forward as being 100% accurate, just 80%. Thats 80% higher then long range forecasts produced by the Met Office, who at the end of the day are only able to make a guess if the temperatures will be higher or lower then average for the month. That's not very useful if your a farmer who has snow and frost in the first half of the month and a heat wave in the second half, only to be informed by the Met Office that it was an average month for temperatures and they were correct with their monthly forecast!
This graph shows the neutrons detected by a neutron detector at the University of Oulu in Finland from May 16 through May 18, 2012. The peak on May 17 represents an increase in the number of neutrons detected, a phenomenon dubbed a ground level enhancement or GLE. This was the first GLE since December of 2006. Credit: University of Oulu/NASA's Integrated Space Weather Analysis System
WeatherAction’s long range May forecast well captured the main very cold N/W and very warm/heatwave E/SE contrast which Piers Corbyn warned of mid-April and which a gaggle of churlish standard Meteorologists derided.
They went eerily quiet for three weeks as their short-range forecasts failed again and again while Piers’ single long range forecast stunned thousands.
Click source to download WA News Report 26 - Europe June 2012 - Public Headline Summary (PDF)
I suspect Piers Corbyn has included this factor into his recent calculation, as to how much weight for it is contained in the "record cold May" forecast we will never know.
The criticism the Met Office have with Piers Corbyn's work is that they want to know how he calculates his long range weather forecasts, as they can't do it beyond a few days. They conclude from that, if they can't produce a long range forecast nobody else can do it either, but as your see from the May results, Piers will not be that far out from what he stated in mid April!
Here is a fact from inventions, when you invent a unique product to sell on the market you can leave others to simply guess what is in the contents, afterall, how many of you know what is inside a bottle Coca Cola or a Pepsi.
These two Front Page Headline articles from the Daily Express by Nathan Rao only have a few days between them....this is what Jonathan Powell had to say about HIS May forecast on the Daily Express on the 15th May "It looks like this is going to continue well into June. Summer is really on hold, with no sign of it in the near future... and on the right also by Nathan Rao from the Daily Express on the 19th MayJonathan Powell had this to say.. “We will get a glimpse of summer next week with temperatures reaching 73F in the South.
It's little wonder people don't take longe range weather forecast seriously....I can't help but think if being a long range weather forecaster saying cold one day and then hot another is such a difficult thing to do.....is that why the Daily Express promote him and is that why Jonathan Powell's Positive Weather service stopped last year only to start again this year as Jonathan Powell Vantage Weather Services?
Jonathan Powell went on to say the following about the rest of May and the Summer in the UK....GR
Snowfall at this time of year isn’t an annual event, so it’s not completely normal, but it’s fair to say it’s not completely unusual either. We last saw snow in May all the way back in… 2011, just last year, and we also saw more snow in 2010.
If we look back through the records dating back to 1910, the snowiest May on record was most likely in 1979 when 342 weather observation sites reported snow on 2 May.
This snowy spell lasted through the whole of the first week of that month. The light snow showers we’ve seen this May seem slight in comparison.