Articles Tagged "Astrophysics v Meteorology"
Wednesday, January 30th 2013, 10:14 AM EST
For the second day in a row we have a Tropical Storm "power up" and as you have seen in my previous report my interpretation of this is that there is a major shot of solar activity going on, but its just...er..invisible.....indicating magnetism rather then the effect of a CME
In a statement Solar Climate Change and Hurricane "Sandy", issued on the 1st November last year, I gave an account of Hurricane "Sandy" powering up TWICE during a similar R5+ period, and now Cyclone "Felleng" seems to have done the same.
Most if not virtually all the people who followed the Hurricane "Sandy" situation missed the major Earthquake story in Canada (M7.7) due to the USA elections. Take it from me, the TWO events WERE related.....what next?
From an analysis made on the Piers Corbyn R4+ periods, there IS a higher then average chance of a M6.5+ or M7+ Earthquake likely to happen any time soon.....more to follow.
What is the current cause of the Tropical Storm "power up"?
Monday, February 11th 2013, 3:14 PM EST
Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action
Met Office WeatherAlert Issued at: 0849 on Mon 11 Feb 2013
There is an 90% probability of severe cold weather/ icy conditions between 0800 on Monday and 0900 on Wednesday in parts of England.
This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action....Click above Met Office WeatherAlert lick for more.
Read Also: Piers Corbyn: Public Warning: Serious Snow-Blizzard and gale disruption 13-17th Feb Britain and Ireland
See below for latest Met Office forecast...: Updates to the Met Office link are made twice a day and the text will change
Saturday, January 26th 2013, 7:09 PM EST
Image taken from Netweather.tv on the 18th January
Now here is an interesting observation that took place AFTER the recent TWO Erupting Filaments of Solar Magnetism on the 23rd January.
The Above image is the location of the Jet Stream as of the 18th January posted at this site on the same day along with a Proton Flux chart.
See below for the area marked "watch this space", the original pressure area was the reason the UK had an easterly flow of cold air
Monday, February 18th 2013, 6:35 AM EST
According to the latest report from SpaceWeather.com yesterday had the "most intense Solar Flare of the Year". So, a little earlier then usual, I thought I would post the remainder of the Piers Corbyn February "Red Warning" to see how this all pans out.
As a rule of thumb we would normally see these major solar events coincide in "R4+" periods, the question is has the Sun not played to the rules set out by Piers Corbyn or will the "most intense Solar Flare of the Year" have little or no effect. Those of you who follow these reports would point out that these solar events depend on a "Earth facing" coronal hole to influence our climate. This then can be regarded as a good case study....a major solar event in a R2 period and also with a "Earth facing" coronal hole!
I note from the Spaceweather.com article that....Coronagraph images from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes show that this explosion did not produce a coronal mass ejection (CME). Nevertheless, there were some Earth-effects. UV radiation from the flare produced a wave of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere
Friday, January 18th 2013, 2:28 PM EST
Yesterday I gave the above proton Flux chart a heading of "Uk January Freeze Starts", today I noticed a prominent re-location of the Jet Stream South of the UK, same effect, but this latest image puts it into perspective, needless to say I guess Temperatures in the UK will remain much cooler as a result of this Jet Stream Shift.
See below current Jet Stream image from NetWeather.tv
Wednesday, January 30th 2013, 12:19 PM EST
The SECOND Major Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) predicted EFFECT*** in January (Jan/Feb) 2013 is now rapidly taking shape on WeatherAction cue to the day. Stratospheric temps (at 70mb pressure level 90N to 65N) have been and are now (around 29Jan) still just above record levels for this date. Standard weather models now look like WeatherAction long range forecasts for the very cold Northerly blasts, consequent on the SSW developments, in Europe (inc Brit+Ire) and USA - in the parts predicted by WeatherAction
StratoTemp (70mb) graph http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/70mb9065.gif
USA V cold blast http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/second-arctic-outbreak-on-the/5053763
UK MetO http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColor&fcTime=1359763200
Eu GFS (Wow!) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Stratosphere Temp data sets http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
Piers says "This spells pretty well simultaneos blizzards both sides of the Atlantic where and when we said to within a day from 30days (USA) and 45days (Br+Ire) ahead. It is a ground-breaking result. Doubtless various organisations will say they saw it coming when in reality they don't know which year these MAJOR SSW EFFECTS will happen let alone which day."
***Note on definitions. There are many data sets of stratosphere temperatures at different pressure levels and latitude ranges and they do NOT all move together, and eg peak at different times. At WeatherAction we have developed parameters to predict periods of when there will be circulation EFFECTS of associated preceding warming develpments in the stratosphere. What we do is not the same as predicting officially defined standard SSWs and our terminology used before did not make that clear - so we apologise for any puzzlements which may have arisen and have ammended the above report to clarify the situation.
We have a Polar SSW Effect (PSSWE) predictor and approximate timings of associated preceding warmings at some levels. The work is ongoing. For further discussion see Feedback Comments at my site using this link
See below latest forecast from the Met Office
Tuesday, January 29th 2013, 10:34 AM EST
This chart shows cold winds from the Arctic over the UK on Saturday -twitter.com/DerekTheWeather - Derek went on to say "the cold snap looks like being short-lived" - we will have wait and see abou that.
Meanwhile see this report and Video from the USA - Second Arctic Outbreak on the Way - accuweather.com - Another blast of arctic air will sweep from the northern Plains to the mid-Atlantic and New England as the week progresses.
The cold wave will follow a brief warmup that will lead to severe weather in some locations.
According to Meteorologist Mark Paquette, "A second pulse of stratospheric warming occurred during the middle of January is now sending another blast of arctic air southward."
If you have missed the story so far - yesterdays report Astrophysics v Meteorology: (Piers Corbyn v Met Office) Round Two: The Return of "Sudden Stratospheric Warming"
See below original January forecast from Piers Corbyn issued at the END OF DECEMBER & Produced Mid December (yes, 45 days ago)
Wednesday, February 27th 2013, 7:11 AM EST
LIMA (Reuters) - Hundreds of small earthquakes have shaken the earth around the Sabancaya volcano in southern Peru over just a few days and the rumbling, along with plumes of smoke spewing up to 320 feet high, have put officials on alert to evacuate the area.
Peru's geological agency Ingemmet recorded some 536 quakes, about 20 an hour, on February 22 and 23 and periodic movement is ongoing.
Thousands of people live in the valleys surrounding the volcano. Some have already started to leave the region because the unusual seismic activity has damaged their homes. About 80 homes were damaged by one temblor on February 22, Peru's national defense office said....
..Ingemmet said the volcano has been releasing huge smoke trails intermittently since January 15 and current seismic activity is similar to that which accompanied an eruption in 1986.
Click source to read FULL report
Sunday, February 10th 2013, 4:19 PM EST
As you can see from the latest WeatherAction.com "Red Warning" chart, above, we have an "R5" event in a few days (13th - 16th February) indicating there is a higher then average chance for storm enhancements from solar activity and the changes you will see will be driven by new Sudden "Polar Lower" Stratospheric Warming....more to follow
Meanwhile....This is the link for the Met Office 30 day forecast and I have extracted below their forecast from Tuesday 12th February onwards to cover the aforementioned period from WeatherAction.com
Note: Updates to the Met Office link are made twice a day and the text will change
Thursday, January 17th 2013, 12:53 PM EST
The above is the WeatherAction.com "Headline" (First Half of Month) issued at the end of December for January 2013.....well done Piers Corbyn...is there any word form the media or Anthony Watts yet?