During the next day or so we will see another Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" period 30th - 31st July(R5). The following Tropical Storm report looks a prime candidate to "power up" and become a major concern to the people of Taiwan. The author of the following report has no idea as to the Solar/Lunar influence that is about to happen in the next few days, if he did I dont think he would be in any doubt as to how strong this storm could be. Sadly there is no way anyone can forward this message and we will have to sit back and see how this Tropical storm pans out. If only the Met Office could forward our concerns!
Saola is in a very moist environment and over very warm waters, both important factors in determining how much, if any, a storm can strengthen. The other main factor is wind shear. Saola is currently in an environment of fairly light shear. Its track, however, will take it into an environment of more moderate shear, so the main question for intensity will be how it handles this shear. The JTWC forecasts steady strengthening to a peak of 75kts before landfall on Taiwan. One thing that could help Saola is its very large size.
This will likely help prevent shear from seriously disrupting the system. I generally agree with the JTWC intensity forecast. If anything I would forecast a slightly higher peak intensity, possibly 80-85kts, due to the possibility that it takes advantage of its current favorable environment to strengthen more in the short term than forecast. However, as we have seen with large storms in the past, they sometimes struggle to bring their winds up due to their large circulations, so a lower than forecasted peak is also possible, though less likely...click wunderground.com for more
Asia's third-largest economy -- INDIA -- was hit by three more huge power grid failures, one day after a similar, but smaller power failure covered half the country -- leaving more than 650 million people without electricity in the world’s biggest blackout according to the ATCA Research & Analysis Wing. More than half the population of India has been affected, which is roughly 10% of the world's population and bigger than the entire population of the European Union or the United States, Russia and Brazil combined. In parallel, hours of power outage in the scorching summer sparked protest in most parts of Pakistan and angry protesters attacked offices of power supply departments in some areas.
Solar Flare or Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)?
Is a "Solar Flare" partially responsible for India and Pakistan's massive power outage? Could it have been a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) since most of Pakistan, along with northern India, also suffered long blackouts? Given that rains had arrived, temperature was down in north India so there was less requirement for a power overdraw. For example, the temperature in New Delhi on 31st July was 25.4 degrees Celsius, more than ten degrees below what it had been during the peak of the summer heat. If electricity overuse was the sole cause of the power failure, because of too many people drawing power, this would have happened before now.
(Updated 1:21 a.m., July 31, 2012) At least four people were killed and millions were left without power Monday as Tropical Storm Gener turned into a typhoon, bringing heavy rains to large parts of the Philippines, the government said.
Manila was one of the worst hit areas and schools across the sprawling capital were suspended, largely due to flooding, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said.
Nearly 13,000 people were evacuated in Manila, other parts of the main island of Luzon and the central Visayas region, as rainfall reached 20 millimeters (0.8 inches) an hour, according to the council.
"The worst appears to be over, though... there will be more rains forecast today," council chief Benito Ramos told AFP.....
Hundreds of flights were canceled and almost 100,000 customers lost power as severe thunderstorms accompanied by rain, hail and possibly a derecho windstorm swept into the Northeast.
A tornado reported in Elmira, New York, tore down trees, ripped roofs from buildings and trapped people in vehicles, according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. A tornado watch was issued for parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Connecticut and Massachusetts.
Solar maximum is still a year away. This month sky watchers got a taste of things to come when a powerful flare sparked Northern Lights over the United States as far south as Arkansas, Colorado and California
The above chart is an extract from the Piers Corbyn July "Red Warning" trial forecast for Volcano and Earthquake risk. You may have noticed for the past couple of months higher then average Volcanic Eruptions and Earthquakes (M6+) have been noticeably reduced. My take on this is that as we approach "Solar Cycle 24 Maximum" the Earth has become a little more stable then it was a few months ago. How that works is not that clear, but it may well be the more solar wind we have from the Sun the more the Earth is less inclined to be suseptible to Astrophysical changes that result in higher then average Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions. That is NOT to say there will be NO further higher then average events, just less.
As per article at SC25.com there may well be a constant "drag" or "brake" being applied from the solar wind rather then an "emergency stop" that may have been the case with the M9 Japan Earthquake that followed a major lull in solar activity at the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the start of Solar Cycle 24.
VERY FAST FARSIDE CME (UPDATED) - spaceweather.com: On July 23rd, a coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun with rare speed: 3400 km/s or 7.6 million mph. CMEs moving this fast occur only once every ~5 to 10 years. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud's rapid departure from the sun:
The source of the CME was sunspot AR1520, which sparked many bright auroras earlier this month when it was on the Earthside of the sun. Now, however, the active region is transiting the sun's farside so this blast was not geoeffective. One can only imagine the geomagnetic storms such a fast CME could produce if it were heading our way.
Update: According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, this CME will miss all of the solar system's inner planets...Click SpaceWeather.com link for more and Video Link
See below for latest Solar Climate Change news report for major "Typhoon"..
You may have noticed that I had not posted any news worthy reports for the period for the R5 "July New Moon", this was simply because nothing stood out in the original time frame (17th - 19th July) as being exceptional in regard to "freak" weather systems.
However, you would have also noticed that this period was extended as a result of a secondary burst of solar activity on the 19th July, the very day Piers said he thought the period would be over!
July has received TWO exceptional flood reports, one in Russia and now the more recent one in China, both coinciding with TWO major bursts of Solar Activity. I have no doubt that the "man made" climate change alarmists will point to humans being the cause of these disasters, but the fact remains both events followed solar activity, and be it they also followed extended solar activity, they were originally forecasted to happen in the "Red Warning" periods by Piers Corbyn.
At least 37 killed in Beijing floods -irishtimes.com....The heaviest rain storm in six decades to hit the Chinese capital killed at least 37 people and caused widespread chaos, flooding streets and stranding 80,000 people at the city's main airport, state media reported today. The storm, which started yesterday afternoon [21st July] and continued late into the night, flooded major roads and sent torrents of water tumbling down steps into underpasses...click irishtimes.com link for more.
Yesterday we reported that Tropical Storm Saola could "power up" any time soon as the next "Red Warning" period was at R5 and due to start around the 29th July........as you can see the storm is forecast at cat 1 bang on cue........and worst......its coinciding with the monsoon period......more to follow.
The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) placed the Batanes group of islands and three other areas under Storm Signal No. 2 on Sunday afternoon as tropical storm Gener (international name Saola) further gained strength.
The state weather bureau said in its 5 p.m. update on Sunday that Gener “poses intense danger to extreme northern Luzon,” packing maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 120 kph.
The tropical cyclone was last spotted 380 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan and is slowly moving north-northwest at 15 kph, PAGASA said.