Articles Tagged "David Whitehouse"
Sunday, March 31st 2013, 8:09 AM EDT
The official watchdog that advises the Government on greenhouse gas emissions targets has launched an astonishing attack on The Mail on Sunday – for accurately reporting that alarming predictions of global warming are wrong.
We disclosed that although highly influential computer models are still estimating huge rises in world temperatures, there has been no statistically significant increase for more than 16 years.
Despite our revelation earlier this month, backed up by a scientifically researched graph, the Committee on Climate Change still clings to flawed predictions.
Wednesday, March 27th 2013, 3:55 PM EDT
The Committee on Climate Change has given its view on the much-discussed recent article on global warming predictions in the Mail on Sunday, written by David Rose. The article points out the disparity between model simulations of global warming and real data, suggesting that using models to formulate policy in such a situation might be unwise.
The Committee on Climate Change is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Its role is to advise the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on emissions targets, and report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change. It says it conducts independent analysis into climate change science, economics and policy.
Tuesday, May 15th 2012, 1:03 PM EDT
Variations in ozone in the lower stratosphere could be the main reason for the global warming seen in the past few decades, according to a new paper in press at the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. It is claimed that the new model is capable of explaining 82% of the total Earth temperature variability.
Nataliya Kilifarska of the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, in Sofia, Bulgaria, presents a powerful analysis that confirms a strong relationship between stratospheric ozone and land air temperature.
Updated below with comments from Stephen Wilde
Thursday, March 7th 2013, 7:37 AM EST
Last year’s record low of Arctic sea ice extent has been discussed widely. Some regard it as the latest example of decadally declining Arctic sea ice exceeding the record low of 2007 and still heading downward.
Arctic sea ice is usually at its greatest extent in March so it is only now that we can see the 2012 freeze-melt cycle completely. Looking at Fig 1 the profile of 2012’s cycle is unusual. The downward trend in August was suddenly doubled making it very different from the melting seen in previous years.
This significant change of slope is the result of what is now being called the “Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012.” A vast area of low pressure arose in Siberia on August 2nd. It crossed the Arctic Ocean and went onto Canada. By August 6th the storm’s pressure was 966 mb, the lowest ever recorded for an Arctic storm. (It is difficult to get data from Arctic storms. Surface pressure is measured only on a few Arctic islands, on a few land based stations around the Arctic Ocean and on buoys.)
Saturday, January 26th 2013, 5:29 PM EST
I hade a look at the two Met Office global temperature datasets (Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4) from the recent David Whitehouse summary - Temperature Standstill Continues: 2012 Just Scrapes Into Top Ten posted at TheGWPF.org and as you can see I made an overlay indicating the very slight changes above 14.5.
These changes in datasets just show you how the debate has become one of splitting hairs rather then from real time recorded observations.
How long will it be when there is a Hadcrut5 to show another rise in temperature that is not there!
Monday, January 14th 2013, 11:58 AM EST
The reporting of the Met Office’s new half-decadal prediction of global temperatures, which now forecasts no rise in warming over the next five years (in sharp contrast to previous record warm forecasts) – has highlighted two lessons in reporting climate change. One is the violation of the old maxim that people are entitled to their own opinions but not their own facts – in climate change reporting it seems that facts can be flexible. The other is that it seems you can’t please anyone, anytime. Here is the BBC’s original broadcast of the recent Met Office forecast put out at 7.00 am Tuesday 8th January, BBC Radio 4.
Newsreader: The Met Office has revised downwards its projection for climate change through to 2017. The new figure suggests that although global temperatures will be forced above their long-term average because of greenhouse gases, the recent slowdown in warming will continue. More details from our environment analyst Roger Harrabin.
Roger Harrabin: Last year the Met Office projected that as greenhouse gases increase, the world’s temperature would be 0.54 degrees warmer than the long-term average by 2016. The new experimental Met Office computer model, looking a year further ahead, projects that the Earth will continue to warm, but the increase will be about 20% less than the previous calculation. If the new number proves accurate, there will have been little additional warming for two decades. The Met Office says natural cycles have caused the recent slowdown in warming, including maybe changes in the sun and ocean currents. Mainstream climate scientists say that when the natural cooling factors change again, temperatures will be driven up further by greenhouse gases.
I have said before that I did not think Roger’s script was very good, the use of figures was confusing in my view, but I think he did get the story basically right; that the Met Office has a new projection to 2017, based on a new computer model, and that will mean little additional warming for two decades (although I would have said none). He said the temperature slowdown was due to natural influences and that temperatures would eventually go up again.
Source Link: thegwpf.org/
Tuesday, January 8th 2013, 5:40 PM EST
Global warming is not causing temperatures to rise as quickly as previously feared, the Met Office has claimed.
Today the weather agency released its revised forecast which was quickly seized upon by climate change skeptics who used the data to claim global warming has stopped.
In turn, the scientific community accused them of ignoring the weight of evidence showing that global warming is a reality, and accused the Met Office of 'falling short' of the standards expected of it.
The UK's national weather service recently changed its projections for climate change through to 2017, known as 'decadal forecasting', to show a marked difference to the rate at which the world's temperature will climb.
Updated below with more media links
Friday, March 15th 2013, 7:58 AM EDT
London, 15 March: A new report written by Dr David Whitehouse and published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation concludes that there has been no statistically significant increase in annual global temperatures since 1997.
After reviewing the scientific literature the reports concludes that the standstill is an empirical fact and a reality that challenges current climate models. During the time that the Earth’s global temperature has remained static the atmospheric composition of carbon dioxide has increased from 370 to 390 ppm.
“The standstill is a reality and is not the result of cherry-picking start and end points. Its commencement can be seen clearly in the data, and it continues to this day,” said Dr David Whitehouse, the author of the new report.
The report shows that the temperature standstill has been a much discussed topic in peer-reviewed scientific literature for years, but that this scientific debate has neither been followed by most of the media, nor acknowledged by climate campaigners, scientific societies and prominent scientists.
Friday, November 30th 2012, 2:10 AM EST
It’s that time of year again when some call the global annual average temperature for the year, even though there are still two months of data remaining. Such a premature declaration is done for political reasons, such as the current UN climate meeting in Doha.
The UK Met Office, on the 28th November 2012, issued a ‘State of global temperatures in 2012,’ and it makes interesting reading.
The Met Office uses three “leading global temperature datasets” to conclude that the average temperature of 2012 is 0.45 +/- 0.10 deg C above the 1961-90 average. They add that these error bars mean that 2012 could be between the 4th and the 14th warmest year of the instrumental period, since 1850. Realistically though it’s going to be ninth or tenth. Fig 1 (left) shows the Met Office data.
The Met Office then adds that due to a La Nina 2012 is cooler than the average for the last decade. Statistically speaking that is not the whole story. According to the data we already have, taking the errors into account, 2012 is statistically identical to all the other years of the past decade and beyond. The recent global temperature standstill continues.
What is an obvious standstill to some – the global temperature hasn’t increased for 15 years – is to others a not so rapid warming, or as the Met Office puts it; “Although the first decade of the 21st century was the warmest on record, warming has not been as rapid since 2000 as over the longer period since the 1970s.”
Thursday, January 17th 2013, 10:11 AM EST
The GWPF has been right all along. In a new report Hansen, Sato and Ruedy (2013) acknowledge the existence of a standstill in global temperature lasting a decade.
This is a welcome contribution to the study of global temperature. When others reached the same conclusion they have been ridiculed; so this admission should provide some pause for reflection by those who have attacked the very idea of a recent temperature standstill, often without understanding the data, focusing on who was making the argument and their alleged non-scientific motives.
According to Hansen et al. the Nasa Giss database has 2012 as the ninth warmest year on record, although statistically indistinguishable from the last 12 years, at least. Noaa says it’s the tenth warmest year. The difference is irrelevant.
Hansen discusses the possible contributions to global temperature in the past decade from stochastic variability and climate forcings. Personally I don’t think that the variations are demonstrably stochastic.
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