In October last year I had a play about with a Solar Cycle graph from informthepundits.wordpress.com, and added an overlay to show three solar cycle periods (SC12, 13 & 14), that as far as I know are not given any "minimum" status as the period was not identified as being "COLD". No, I'm not looking for any recognition about this period, and as far as I know neither is Piers Corbyn....but hey don't let that stop anyone from calling it "The Gabriel Near Minimum":)
I have now added another overlay to the original chart and also extended it with three fictitious shaped solar cycles (SC24, 25 & 26). All of these cycles are forecast to be lower then SC 23, and SC 24 is expected to be the highest of the three, be it the lowest one for 100 years! SC 25 WILL be lower then SC 24 as per latest estimate from NASA. SC 26 Is entered as similar level to SC 25 (my guess). This should bring the period up to around 2050, as you can see from above, this WILL BE A COOL/COLD period and NOT HOT as per the Met Office and the IPCC.
See below a rare photo from the winter of 1911, near the end of solar cycle 14, it makes a very good point about the "Gabriel Near Minimum".
An abrupt cooling in Europe together with an increase in humidity and particularly in windiness coincided with a sustained reduction in solar activity 2800 years ago. Scientists from the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ in collaboration with Swedish and Dutch colleagues provide evidence for a direct solar-climate linkage on centennial timescales. Using the most modern methodological approach, they analysed sediments from Lake Meerfelder Maar, a maar lake in the Eifel/Germany, to determine annual variations in climate proxies and solar activity.
The study published online this week in Nature Geosience (06/05/2012) reports the climatic change that occurred at the beginning of the pre-Roman Iron Age and demonstrates that especially the so-called Grand Minima of solar activity can affect climate conditions in western Europe through changes in regional atmospheric circulation pattern. Around 2800 years ago, one of these Grand Solar Minima, the Homeric Minimum, caused a distinct climatic change in less than a decade in Western Europe.
The exceptional seasonally laminated sediments from the studied maar lake allow a precise dating even of short-term climate changes. The results show for a 200 year long period strongly increased springtime winds during a period of cool and wet climate in Europe. In combination with model studies they suggest a mechanism that can explain the relation between a weak sun and climate change. "The change and strengthening of the tropospheric wind systems likely is related to stratospheric processes which in turn are affected by the ultraviolet radiation" explains Achim Brauer (GFZ), the initiator of the study. "This complex chain of processes thus acts as a positive feedback mechanism that could explain why assumingly too small variations in solar activity have caused regional climate changes."
Updated below with MUST READ comments from Stephen Wilde & Piers Corbyn
Variations in ozone in the lower stratosphere could be the main reason for the global warming seen in the past few decades, according to a new paper in press at the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. It is claimed that the new model is capable of explaining 82% of the total Earth temperature variability.
Nataliya Kilifarska of the National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, in Sofia, Bulgaria, presents a powerful analysis that confirms a strong relationship between stratospheric ozone and land air temperature.
Stephen Wilde has been a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society since 1968. The first five articles from Mr Wilde were received with a great deal of interest throughout the Co2 Sceptic community.
In Stephen Wilde’s sixth and exclusive article for ClimateRealists.com (originally co2sceptics.com) he considers that the IPCC have failed to carry out any risk analysis for the potential for global cooling instead of global warming and that a repeat of the Little Ice Age a mere 400 years ago would cause mass starvation worldwide.
The Death Blow to AGW by Stephen Wilde
The influence of the sun has been discounted in the climate models as a contributor to the warming observed between 1975 and 1998. Those who support the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), now known as anthropogenic climate change so that recent cooling can be included in their scenario, always deny that the sun has anything to do with recent global temperature movements.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a storm this big before.
The storm shown here stretches west to east from Newfoundland to Portugal. Its southern tail (cold front) extends into the Caribbean and the north side of its comma head touches southern Greenland.
Not only is it big, but it’s also super intense – comparable to many category 3 hurricanes. The storm’s central pressure, as analyzed by the Ocean Prediction Center, is 953 mb. Estimated peak wave heights are around 25-30 feet.
Global warming is not causing temperatures to rise as quickly as previously feared, the Met Office has claimed.
Today the weather agency released its revised forecast which was quickly seized upon by climate change skeptics who used the data to claim global warming has stopped.
In turn, the scientific community accused them of ignoring the weight of evidence showing that global warming is a reality, and accused the Met Office of 'falling short' of the standards expected of it.
The UK's national weather service recently changed its projections for climate change through to 2017, known as 'decadal forecasting', to show a marked difference to the rate at which the world's temperature will climb.
Using their hi-tec website, this 3-5 day Met Office forecast indicates there is nothing to worry about, otherwise it would be coloured, and as you can see it's plain or if you like "un-shaded", indicting for the time of the year they expect "normal January weather", that is in contrast to the 1-2 day forecast I have posted below, it is shaded and includes a level 3 warning due to the below average cold weather and snow etc.
Those of you who have seen the forecast for this period, issued from WeatherAction.com by Piers Corbyn at the end of December (that's right, "end of December") would have noticed that Piers is expecting this period to be one of his highest solar ratings of the year, an R5+, and it takes place from Wednesday 16th and ends on the 18th*. Then allowing for one or two days for the Earth's climate to "process" this event (that's "cause and effect" to you and me) there should be a noticeable climatic change (NOT a "man made" one, but a "Solar Climate Change") in the UK and indeed around the world taking place by no later then Sunday 20th January.
I will include these Met Office daily charts until the last day (Sunday), they should start to change colour, maybe even "Red" as we progress through the week
Updated below with additional MUST READ comments by Piers Corbyn
Below is an awesome video capturing the C8.7 solar flare around Sunspot 1667. During the eruption, a blob of plasma above the blast site is captured spinning like a Tornado vortex. Most of us Sun lovers hope for X-Class solar flares, however even a C-Class flare can be fascinating. A slow motion version is also included.
EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION - SpaceWeather.com: The magnetic canopy of decaying sunspot AR1667 erupted this morning (Feb. 6th @ 00:21 UT), producing a long duration C9-class solar flare and hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. According to first-look images from NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft, the CME appears to be heading in the general direction of Earth...click SpaceWeather.com link for Video link
From the above TropicalStormRisk.com chart it looks as if the recent Tropical Storm Seventeen has now been officially named as "Rusty" and is due to be a Cyclone CAT2 sometime tomorrow.
Our crude Solar Activity indicator looks to be pointing at this event as the start of the SECOND February Piers Corbyn "R5" event and we should see an enhancement to storm events around the world any time soon...more to follow
Tropical storm Rusty is forecast to strike Australia as a tropical cyclone at about 06:00 GMT on 26 February.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfall will be near19.3 S,118.5 E.Rusty is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 175 km/h (109 mph).Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofRusty'sstrength (category 2)...click trust.org/alertnet/news/ link for more