Articles Tagged "Paul Hudson"

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Paul Hudson: Cold to follow latest deluge
Monday, November 26th 2012, 6:26 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
A welcome change to drier but colder weather is likely as we head through this week following heavy rainfall since Saturday night which is once again testing flood defences across the county.

November is continuing a remarkable run of wet weather, becoming the 8th successive month where rainfall has been above average, a sequence which began in April.....

...Through this week somewhat colder air is expected to spread southwards as pressure starts to rise.

This will result in weather systems being 'blocked' from moving eastwards across the country, at least in the short term.

The good news is that this means weather conditions will become much drier generally, although showers are still expected more especially in eastern areas exposed to the northerly breeze.
Source Link: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
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MUST SEE: Piers Corbyn's review of Summer Weather - Hurricane Irene - CERN’s CLOUD Experiment - Latest on Climate Fools Day: Updated
Sunday, September 4th 2011, 7:43 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Piers Corbyn's review of Summer Weather - Hurricane Irene - CERN’s CLOUD Experiment - Latest on Climate Fools Day 26th October



Update: A poor August ends another disappointing summer - Paul Hudson - BBC

In spring, I wrote an article, which you can read HERE summarising the various summer forecasts on offer.

Of all the long range forecasts I read, only Piers Corbyn at Weather Action can claim success with his summer forecast.
H/T NM

Updated below with MUST READ comments by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: YouTube.com
Paul Hudson: Met Office global forecasts too warm in 11 out of last 12 yrs
Saturday, February 11th 2012, 10:14 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Global temperatures fell quite sharply in January, according to the UAH satellite measure.

The anomaly of -0.093C below the 30 year running mean equates to approximately +0.16C above the more standard 1961-1990 time period.

As regards 2011 as a whole, according to the Met Office, 2011 was the 12th warmest year in their 150 years of global temperature records with an anomaly of 0.346C.

This compares to their 2011 forecast of 0.44C.

Although this discrepancy is within the stated margin of error, it is the 11th year out of the last 12 when the Met Office global temperature forecast has been too warm.

In all these years, the discrepancy between observed temperatures and the forecast are within the stated margin of error.

But all the errors are on the warm side, with none of the forecasts that have been issued in the last 12 years ending up too cold.
Source Link: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
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John O'Sullivan: BBC Meteorologist Confirms Climate Skeptic Forecaster Was Right
Tuesday, September 13th 2011, 8:40 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentBritish maverick forecaster, Piers Corbyn, wins BBC accolade for best long-range weather prediction for Summer 2011.

With the summer of 2011 ending as the coolest in the United Kingdom since 1993 Corbyn has again left the UK Meteorological (Met) Office in the shade with his unerring accuracy.

BBC meteorologist and former Met man, Paul Hudson, has graciously conceded on his blog, "Of all the long range forecasts I read, only Piers Corbyn at Weather Action can claim success with his summer forecast." [1.]

Disappointing Official UK Weather Statistics for Summer 2011

Across the UK, the mean summer temperature was 0.4 Celsius below the long-term average making it the coolest for almost 20 years at 13.6 Celsius. Average summer rainfall was almost 20 percent above average with sunshine hours slightly below normal.

These Met Officer figures are "provisional" figures because, once again, they have been released before the end of the month. Piers, always cynical of Met Office motives, warms that often these provisional numbers get revised downwards so we could see 2011 turn out to be chillier and wetter than these numbers show.
Source Link: suite101.com/
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Met Office UK 3-month Outlook from 23rd March 2012: Updated by Paul Hudson, BBC Weather
Friday, April 27th 2012, 4:41 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentPeriod: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

The forecast presented here is for April and the average of the AprilMayJune period for the United Kingdom as a whole.

This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:

The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drierthanaverage conditions for AprilMayJune as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.

With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the AprilMayJune period.

The probability that UK precipitation for AprilMayJune will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Click source to read FULL UK 3-month Outlook from the Met Office, HT TheGWPF.org

Updated below from Paul Hudson, BBC Weather - Wettest April on record - and more rain to come
Source Link: metoffice.gov.uk
THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES
Paul Hudson: End in sight to extraordinary November weather: Updated by Piers Corbyn
Monday, November 21st 2011, 9:57 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment


It is turning out to be a remarkable November, with mean temperatures way above what would normally be expected at this time of the year.

If temperatures were to remain at these elevated levels then it would become the mildest November ever recorded on the Central England Temperature (CET) measure, which dates back 350 years.

These very mild conditions come off the back of what was a very mild October, where new records were set quite widely across the country.

This flies in the face of stories in the press earlier this autumn, originating from several small independent weather forecasting companies, which talked of snow and ice as early as October http://tiny.cc/8hmlu and Siberian weather by mid-November http://tiny.cc/nbzb3


Updated below with MUST READ comments by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
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Paul Hudson: What's causing our extreme weather? Is it unprecedented?
Wednesday, July 11th 2012, 5:44 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment

The awful weather which continues to affect the UK led yesterday to the Great Yorkshire show being cancelled (because of the weather) for the first time in its 154 year history.

And on Monday, serious flash flooding devastated parts of the Calder valley for the second time in as many weeks.

In fact as we all know our weather, with a notable exception during the second half of May, has been dreadful since the end of March.

And research conducted in part by scientists at the University of Sheffield has concluded that declining Arctic ice could be to blame.

The Arctic has been the fastest warming area in the world and this has reduced, according to the research, the temperature contrast between the Arctic and the Tropics.
Source Link: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
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Paul Hudson: Weakest solar cycle in 100yrs could intensify drought (UK)
Tuesday, May 8th 2012, 6:56 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
News from NASA this week that on-going weak solar activity will continue, leading to the weakest solar cycle in around 100 years, could have important implications for the UK's weather.

Research over the last few years has pointed to a link between low solar activity, and incidences of 'blocking' weather patterns.

In three out of the last four winters, the jet stream has been much weaker than normal, leaving us more exposed to colder air from the north and the east, as 'blocking' areas of high pressure become established.

In these situations, winters are not just colder than average but drier, too.

It's these weather patterns that have led the government to warn of the risk of stand-pipes in the streets next summer should winter again be dry in southern and eastern areas.
Source Link: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
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Book: Frozen Britain by Ian McCaskill and Paul Hudson: Review: Is Britain's Future Freezing? by James Gillespie
Saturday, December 3rd 2011, 7:27 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentAmazon Link

WHEN Siberian conditions hit Britain this time last year everyone was caught out, including the weathermen.

Global warming, we had been told, meant the snowy conditions we remember from our childhoods would be just that: memories.

But following the bitter cold of the past two winters those predictions are beginning to look rather wide of the mark. now a new book, Frozen Britain by meteorologists Ian McCaskill and Paul Hudson, suggests that rather than facing milder winters we could be in for some more Arctic big freezes.

Certainly, despite everything that the global-warming lobby has suggested, our climate may be dictated by more than just man- made toxins pumped into the atmosphere. One of the key indicators – which has fallen out of favour with the computer-obsessed meteorologists of today – is the sun.

According to McCaskill and Hudson the clues to our future weather may lie with the sun.

“In the past few years it has been behaving very oddly,” Hudson says.

In the past, when there have been periods of relative inactivity on the surface of the sun they have been followed by years of cold winters.

Research published recently showed that in the early 1800s when activity on the sun was remarkably low for many years there was a dramatic change in the weather.
Source Link: express.co.uk/features
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Paul Hudson: Blame the jet stream for return of heavy rain
Wednesday, June 20th 2012, 12:03 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment


After a short spell of fine and warm weather in the last few days, Atlantic weather fronts are once again expected to spread wind and rain across the country tonight and tomorrow, leading us into a fourth successive weekend washout.

According to Philip Eden, writing in the Sunday Telegraph, the first half of June across the UK was the wettest for 150 years - and let's not forget April was the wettest on record too.

The weather pattern is so stuck in a rut that there's every chance that low pressure will dominate our weather for the rest of June and into the first half of July too - meaning more cool and at times wet weather - with a few fine warm days in-between.

And it's all down to the position of the jet stream.

The jet stream is a fast moving zone of winds high up in the atmosphere, caused by the temperature contrast between cold air to the north, and warmer air to the south.
It's along this boundary, where warm and cold air constantly battle each other, that most of our rain bearing weather systems form.
Source Link: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
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