A new paper published in the Journal of Climate examines landfalling tropical cyclones along the eastern Pacific coast between the 16th and 20th centuries and finds the most persistent cycle lasted ~ 12 years and coincided with the ~11-12 year solar cycle.
Numerous studies have been conducted to document long term trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, the eastern Pacific has not received as much attention as other basins. Here we attempt the identification of TC formation in the Mexican eastern Pacific ocean before 1950. Using bibliographical and historical file consultation, we constructed a catalog of events related to intense storms and possible TCs that made landfall in the Mexican Pacific coasts. Between 1536 and 1948 we found a total of 119 events related to TCs. Then, using the Saffir-Simpson scale and the climatology of the region as the criteria to evaluate each event, we found 85 TCs. Furthermore, we constructed a historical time series of TCs between 1701 and 2010. The spectral analysis showed periodicities of ~2.6, 4, 5, 12, 16, 39 and 105 years, that coincide with some large-scale climatic phenomena and also with solar activity. In particular, the ~12-year cycle is the most persistent periodicity in our study.
Piers Corbyn had expected this area of the Sun to erupt during his R5 period 22nd - 23rd November. I can only guess that as a result of this delay to AR1618, the rain/floods in the UK lasted a few days longer then even WeatherAction anticipated. The low pressure system also followed a lower track, although having seen Piers Corbyn original hand drawn chart for Europe for the 22/23 November he DID foresee a very low pressure area coming to the UK several weeks in advance but not as far South as it did, and as mention, not for as long.
Oh, and yes we have another "rare" weather event,this time from Italy, this was less then a day after AR1618 erupted.....
Updated below with MUST READ comments from Piers Corbyn
With the end of 2012 in sight I thought I would give you a quick summary of how the Piers Corbyn Earthquake and Volcano trial went this year. I tried to monitor EQ's from a Magnitudes of 6.5+, and this was not only very messy to try and analyse, I also got a lot of stick from a couple of AGW supporters as regards the stats were concerned, and rightly so. But now I have found something even they will find difficult to argue with.
I have now settled at Earthquakes with a Magnitude of 7+ to show what I consider to be changes of real significance between Solar Activity and Earthquakes using the Piers Corbyn "R" rating.
It's not a perfect situation to make a call and yes there is a flaw in all of this, and that is, the condition of the Earth's crust! This, understandably is an unknown variable, and as you can see below, there was nothing going on above M7 for several months in a row (May, June & July) [Note, I have to conclude this three month period of >=M7 was NOT random as this is a cluster of three months. Maybe a clear sign the Earth's crust was either in a stable condition or that the Sun was not packing any force in her punches!]
As a result of this three month lull, I will have to see what next year brings, and who knows in 2013 I may have to revise this view.
The fact is Piers Corbyn has a skill of pinpointing the monthly periods when he expects there to be high level Earthquakes M7+ associated with high Solar Activity [R4/R5]
The numbers are: There were 16 M7+ Earthquakes during 2012
Associated with Piers Corbyn Solar Activity Rating R4/R5 = 11 (69%)
Average Number of days in month for a R4/R5 Period 8 (27%)
Before I go through the above Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" period for the end of January/Start of February it's worth looking at what the Met office has had to say for the same period. As you will see I have collected the past THREE days worth of forecasts just to show you how dificult it is for them to remain with a clear understanding as to what the weather will be at the end of next week.
Poor old Piers does not have this luxury, he nails his forecast to the mast and keeps it there unless the Sun does something unexpected, as it has done during so the past few days!
The latest Met Office forecast is at the top.... it looks to me they have read the WeatherAction.com forecast (but I could be wrong:)
This is the Met Office UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2013 to Sunday 10 Feb 2013: posted at 1123 on Sun 27 Jan 2013
Conditions are expected to remain unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by colder, clearer, showery conditions. Some heavy rain at times, with western parts perhaps seeing the heaviest and most persistent rain. Meanwhile, showers may be heavy at times and are also likely to be wintry, particularly over higher ground in the north, and increasingly so later in the period. Often on the windy side, risk occasional gales in the exposed north and west. Daytime temperatures often near normal but milder during the cloudier, rainy spells whilst during clearer, showery spells temperatures perhaps below average at times. Risk of frost by night during the clearer interludes, continuing ice risk where rain or showers persist overnight.
The above is the start date of the latest and second R5+ Solar/Lunar event of the year from Piers Corbyn. The first R5+ event troubled the Met office a great deal and they issued a "rare" Red warning as the weather conditions in the UK went from bad to worse!
Using the above charts as a 4-5 day forecast issued today on Met Office link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=4 there would seem to be no real significant change coming to the UK for Thursday 31st January and Friday 1st February, otherwise it would be coloured, and as you can see it's plain or if you like "un-shaded", indicting for the time of the year the Met Office expect "normal January/February weather", that is in contrast to the 1-3 day forecast that indicates heavy rain and flooding
This 4-5 day Met Office forecast seems to indicates there is nothing to worry about! And yet Piers Corbyn states that this will be the start of another high level Solar/Lunar period that will result with snow storms/blizzards and a return to freezing conditions up to the 3rd February as per my posting from yesterday a return of Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Below is the current Met Office end of the week forecast:
Having gone through several days of R4/R5 Solar/Lunar events we are now at the start of a second R5+ period in two months. The following YouTube of a Solar flare from today looks to be the start of this event....remember the CME from a Solar Flare does not have to be in direct line with Earth, it's the "hole" that is facing us that counts...more to follow
Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com long range weather & climate forecasters today announced important findings connecting solar-lunar effects on earthquakes and volcanoes and warned that the major solar explosion (Coronal Mass Ejection) of 13th April will increase risk of: more earthquakes, renewed eruption of Iceland’s volcano & extreme weather events world-wide as it hits Earth in his predicted Solar-Lunar Impact periods 18-24 April.
As mentioned for the past couple of days, due to the relocation of the "Jet Stream" in the USA there is a clash of cold and warm weather systems going on across the plains and sandwiched in the middle are major Thunderstorms.
This "still" from AcuuWeather.com shows the expected impact today.........more to follow.
The Sun is still in "Funk" and the R5 "Red Warning" from Piers Corbyn is stiil in effect (8th - 10th November).