Articles Tagged "2012 Forecast"
Sunday, April 7th 2013, 11:51 AM EDT
Those of us caught in downpours in our shorts or left peeling soggy sausages off the barbecue could probably have told them all along.
The Met Office finally admitted yesterday that the forecasts it gave of ‘dry’ weather last year were ‘not helpful’.
But the organisation’s chief scientist still insisted two-thirds of its long-term forecasts are ‘very helpful’ – without specifying quite what that means for the other third.
In its official guidance to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Met Office said that last April was likely to be ‘drier than usual’.
Monday, January 7th 2013, 9:00 AM EST
Well, as an example, let's look at their rainfall forecasts they made during 2012. Remember, their forecasts are based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.
On 23rd March, they predicted “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April/May/June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.”
RESULT – RAINFALL TOTALS WERE 176%, 94% AND 203% OF NORMAL IN APRIL, MAY AND JUNE RESPECTIVELY.
On 24th August, their forecast for September “weakly favours below normal values”.
RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 117% OF NORMAL IN SEPTEMBER.
Saturday, January 26th 2013, 5:29 PM EST
I hade a look at the two Met Office global temperature datasets (Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4) from the recent David Whitehouse summary - Temperature Standstill Continues: 2012 Just Scrapes Into Top Ten posted at TheGWPF.org and as you can see I made an overlay indicating the very slight changes above 14.5.
These changes in datasets just show you how the debate has become one of splitting hairs rather then from real time recorded observations.
How long will it be when there is a Hadcrut5 to show another rise in temperature that is not there!
Wednesday, January 9th 2013, 2:15 PM EST
Climate Depot Round Up -- (For more on 'hottest year' claims see: Claims of 'Warmest Year' For Continental U.S. (Less than 2% of Earth's Surface) Ignore Flat Global Temperature Trend -- UK Telegraph: 'Global warming at a standstill', new Met Office figures show -- 'by 2017 temps will have remained about same for 2 decades')
2012 Didn't Crack The Top Ten For Record Maximums: 'NOAA has inflated 2012 record maximum number by adding new stations which didn't exist during the hot years of 1930s'' -- 'That is a completely illegitimate approach. An apples to apples comparison uses only the same stations. When that is done, 2012 doesn't even crack the ten hottest years'
Friday, November 30th 2012, 2:10 AM EST
It’s that time of year again when some call the global annual average temperature for the year, even though there are still two months of data remaining. Such a premature declaration is done for political reasons, such as the current UN climate meeting in Doha.
The UK Met Office, on the 28th November 2012, issued a ‘State of global temperatures in 2012,’ and it makes interesting reading.
The Met Office uses three “leading global temperature datasets” to conclude that the average temperature of 2012 is 0.45 +/- 0.10 deg C above the 1961-90 average. They add that these error bars mean that 2012 could be between the 4th and the 14th warmest year of the instrumental period, since 1850. Realistically though it’s going to be ninth or tenth. Fig 1 (left) shows the Met Office data.
The Met Office then adds that due to a La Nina 2012 is cooler than the average for the last decade. Statistically speaking that is not the whole story. According to the data we already have, taking the errors into account, 2012 is statistically identical to all the other years of the past decade and beyond. The recent global temperature standstill continues.
What is an obvious standstill to some – the global temperature hasn’t increased for 15 years – is to others a not so rapid warming, or as the Met Office puts it; “Although the first decade of the 21st century was the warmest on record, warming has not been as rapid since 2000 as over the longer period since the 1970s.”
Thursday, December 27th 2012, 7:18 PM EST
20 December 2012 - 2013 is expected to be between 0.43 °C and 0.71 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a best estimate of around 0.57 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.
Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast and observations, it is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest ten years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012.
The prediction follows provisional figures for the observed temperature in 2012, published by the Met Office and University of East Anglia last month. These showed that global average temperatures in 2012 were 0.45 °C above the long term average based on data from the three international global temperature datasets used by the World Meteorological Organization.
2012 is currently ranked the 9th warmest year on record. The global average temperature for 2012 falls well within the range predicted by the Met Office for 2012 of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, with a most likely value of 0.48 °C above the long term average. This is consistent with the Met Office forecast statement that 2012 was expected to be warmer than 2011, but not as warm as the record year of 2010.
Click source for more
Thursday, October 25th 2012, 8:49 AM EDT
The weather bureau is predicting a big change in Australia's forecast this summer, with an El Nino no longer expected.
Average rainfall is predicted in the coming months in the absence of El Nino - Australia's major weather pattern in the 21st century which brings drought-like conditions.
The chief climate forecaster says it is the biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.
"Come September, all of a sudden, the temperature started to cool down, the trade winds started to become a little bit enhanced, and the cloud patterns and other indicators like that headed away from El Nino," the bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said.
"So this is what we're looking at as climatologists, giving us the heads up about what may happen over the next few months, and indeed what we're seeing now is a backing off from those El Nino thresholds."
Thursday, December 27th 2012, 7:13 PM EST
Provisional figures from the Met Office from 1 January to 26 December 2012 show that some parts of the UK have already had their wettest year on record.
New records have been set in England (1095.8 mm), northern England (1253 mm), E and NE England (1042.1 mm), Midlands (1048.2 mm), and East Anglia (788 mm), in a series that goes back to 1910.
A further 46 mm of rain is needed from 27 to 31 December for this to be the wettest year on record for the UK overall – the UK has had 1291.2 mm of rain from 1 January to 26 December. The wettest year on record for the UK is 2000 with 1337.3 mm.
In terms of temperature and sunshine the year as a whole is set to be unremarkable, both being around normal. However, overall 2012 is set to be cooler than 2011, but warmer than 2010.
More about the record breaking year of 2012
Wednesday, January 9th 2013, 2:31 PM EST
NOAA has inflated the 2012 record maximum number by adding new stations which didn’t exist during the hot years of the 1930s. That is a completely illegitimate approach, suitable only for government workers.
An apples to apples comparison uses only the same stations. When that is done, 2012 doesn’t even crack the ten hottest years.
Monday, October 15th 2012, 5:54 AM EDT
‘Warmest year’ looking more likely for 2012 across continental US – U.S. News:January-September was already the warmest first nine months, according to temperature data released Tuesday by the National Climatic Data Center. Moreover, six of eight scenarios charted by the center have 2012 ending warmer than any other year in records that go back to 1895. The only scenarios where that would not happen are if the last quarter is among the 10 coldest on record.
This is patently false, and a blatant destruction of American history. An apples to apples comparison shows that 2012 is definitely not the hottest year. The number of record maximums for stations with contiguous records going back to at least 1930, shows 2012 isn’t even in the top ten...SG
Click source to read FULL report from Steve Goddard
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