There will be three cold waves arriving on Italy in the first half of February: Maps evening with the latest updates from all major computing centers worldwide confirm first the first, this weekend, with temperatures plummeting and severe weather especially in the center / north between Saturday 2 and Sunday 3, in the first days of the new month, when the snow may fall from abundant at low altitude and perhaps even in the plains to the north. But it is still early for details, but rather the trend in the medium and long term sees the confirmation of a second wave of cold next week, between Wednesday 6 and Friday, February 8, and then a third longer and more intense since Tuesday 12 onwards .
Of course everything about this third wave and the evolution from 9 to 10 February onwards, to date, is only "fantasy forecast" a very risky principle that needs to be confirmed in the coming days, but it also the risk of being denied. Instead, the first two are absolutely confirmed as baric system and weather trends, will be better defined only the details and namely:
#positioning the minimum of low pressure and its evolution
#amount of cold coming
#provide estimates of temperature and precipitation on the ground, with the forecast detail on the most affected areas and the snow level
The SECOND Major Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) predicted EFFECT*** in January (Jan/Feb) 2013 is now rapidly taking shape on WeatherAction cue to the day. Stratospheric temps (at 70mb pressure level 90N to 65N) have been and are now (around 29Jan) still just above record levels for this date. Standard weather models now look like WeatherAction long range forecasts for the very cold Northerly blasts, consequent on the SSW developments, in Europe (inc Brit+Ire) and USA - in the parts predicted by WeatherAction
***Note on definitions. There are many data sets of stratosphere temperatures at different pressure levels and latitude ranges and they do NOT all move together, and eg peak at different times. At WeatherAction we have developed parameters to predict periods of when there will be circulation EFFECTS of associated preceding warming develpments in the stratosphere. What we do is not the same as predicting officially defined standard SSWs and our terminology used before did not make that clear - so we apologise for any puzzlements which may have arisen and have ammended the above report to clarify the situation.
We have a Polar SSW Effect (PSSWE) predictor and approximate timings of associated preceding warmings at some levels. The work is ongoing. For further discussion see Feedback Comments at my site using this link
This chart shows cold winds from the Arctic over the UK on Saturday -twitter.com/DerekTheWeather - Derek went on to say "the cold snap looks like being short-lived" - we will have wait and see abou that.
Meanwhile see this report and Video from the USA - Second Arctic Outbreak on the Way - accuweather.com - Another blast of arctic air will sweep from the northern Plains to the mid-Atlantic and New England as the week progresses.
The cold wave will follow a brief warmup that will lead to severe weather in some locations.
According to Meteorologist Mark Paquette, "A second pulse of stratospheric warming occurred during the middle of January is now sending another blast of arctic air southward."
The above is the start date of the latest and second R5+ Solar/Lunar event of the year from Piers Corbyn. The first R5+ event troubled the Met office a great deal and they issued a "rare" Red warning as the weather conditions in the UK went from bad to worse!
Using the above charts as a 4-5 day forecast issued today on Met Office link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=4 there would seem to be no real significant change coming to the UK for Thursday 31st January and Friday 1st February, otherwise it would be coloured, and as you can see it's plain or if you like "un-shaded", indicting for the time of the year the Met Office expect "normal January/February weather", that is in contrast to the 1-3 day forecast that indicates heavy rain and flooding
This 4-5 day Met Office forecast seems to indicates there is nothing to worry about! And yet Piers Corbyn states that this will be the start of another high level Solar/Lunar period that will result with snow storms/blizzards and a return to freezing conditions up to the 3rd February as per my posting from yesterday a return of Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Below is the current Met Office end of the week forecast:
Before I go through the above Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" period for the end of January/Start of February it's worth looking at what the Met office has had to say for the same period. As you will see I have collected the past THREE days worth of forecasts just to show you how dificult it is for them to remain with a clear understanding as to what the weather will be at the end of next week.
Poor old Piers does not have this luxury, he nails his forecast to the mast and keeps it there unless the Sun does something unexpected, as it has done during so the past few days!
The latest Met Office forecast is at the top.... it looks to me they have read the WeatherAction.com forecast (but I could be wrong:)
This is the Met Office UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2013 to Sunday 10 Feb 2013: posted at 1123 on Sun 27 Jan 2013
Conditions are expected to remain unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by colder, clearer, showery conditions. Some heavy rain at times, with western parts perhaps seeing the heaviest and most persistent rain. Meanwhile, showers may be heavy at times and are also likely to be wintry, particularly over higher ground in the north, and increasingly so later in the period. Often on the windy side, risk occasional gales in the exposed north and west. Daytime temperatures often near normal but milder during the cloudier, rainy spells whilst during clearer, showery spells temperatures perhaps below average at times. Risk of frost by night during the clearer interludes, continuing ice risk where rain or showers persist overnight.