Articles Tagged "Tom Quirk"

The apparent leveling of the global temperature time series at the end of the 1990s may represent a break in the upward trend. A study of the time series measurements for temperature, carbon dioxide, humidity and methane shows changes coincident with phase changes of the Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations. There are changes in carbon dioxide, humidity and methane measurement series in 2000. If these changes mark a phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation then it might explain the global temperature behaviour

1. Introduction

The apparent leveling of the global temperature time series(Brohan et al., 2006) at the end of the 1990s may represent a break in the upward trend. But the methodology is widely disputed. For example in a long editorial comment in the journal Climate Change, Terence Mills (Mills, 2010), a UK econometrician who has written at length on temperature trend analysis, concludes that “Statistical arguments alone are unlikely to settle issues such as these, but neither are appeals to only physical models or the output of computer simulations of coupled general circulation models….it is a case of you pays your money and you takes your choice”.

The approach adopted here is to look at the time development of global temperature and other atmospheric variables to see if there is supporting evidence of a significant change.

Further the Great Pacific Climate Shift (GPCS) (Mantua et al., 1997) of 1976-77 a part of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the identification of a phase change in the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation (ADO) related to changes in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 (Wang and Dong, 2010), may offer a test bed of global indicators for the late 1990s. Thus atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), humidity and atmospheric methane are examined below using the Chow Break Test (Chow, 1960).

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On Friday (August 12), The Australian reported (Methane rise blocked by less irrigation, more natural gas) two new papers in the journal Nature explaining the marked slowing of the annual increases of methane in the atmosphere. The behaviour is shown in the figure, from The Australian, published above.

The scientific papers’ conclusions seemed to be heading in opposite directions, with one suggesting reduced methane emissions from fossil fuel production and the other from reduced natural influences, in particular rice paddy fields

There is a serious question about the role of methane as a greenhouse gas. If atmospheric methane is not increasing or simply varying due to natural causes then there is little we can do about it. Yet the carbon tax legislation will include fugitive emissions (of methane) from coal mines and transmission gas pipelines. This will impact on the extraction of coal seam gas as well.

CO2 variations do not correlate with man-made emissions. Peaks and falls correlate with hot years (e.g. 1998) and cold years (1991-92). No graphs are available from Salby's speech or paper yet. This graph comes from Tom Quirk's related work.

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Professor Ross Garnaut, in the introduction to his update of the Science of Climate Change asked two econometricians to examine the temperature record in this and the last century. The temperature trend analysis that Garnaut had asked his distinguished colleagues to perform gave him the answer he wanted. There was a continuing increase. But this methodology is widely disputed. For example in a long editorial comment in the journal Climate Change, Terence Mills, a UK econometrician who has written at length on temperature trend analysis, concludes that "Statistical arguments alone are unlikely to settle issues such as these, but neither are appeals to only physical models or the output of computer simulations of coupled general circulation models….it is a case of you pays your money and you takes your choice".

Garnaut's sole reliance on an econometric analysis to interpret temperature changes indicates a failure to recognise the range of possible interpretations of such changes. These are examined below.

The measurements can be presented in a number of ways from monthly to yearly to 10 year values as used by the IPCC. A comparison of annual and 10 year values in Figure 1 shows that reliance on 10 year values, as used by the IPCC, may obscure details that are important and this is true of the last ten years.

THERE are four official global temperature data sets and there has been much debate and discussion as to which best represents change in global temperature.

Tom Quirk has analysed variations within and between these data sets and concludes there is 1. Substantial general agreement between the data sets, 2. Substantial short-term variation in global temperature in all data sets and 3. No data set shows a significant measurable rise in global temperature over the twelve year period since 1997.

Global Temperature Revisited
by Tom Quirk

One of the most vexing things about climate change is the endless debate about temperatures. Did they rise, did they fall or were they pushed? At times it seems like a Monty Python sketch of either the Dead Parrot or the 5 or 10 Minute Argument.

By Research physicist Dr. Tom Quirk, a former University lecturer, fellow of three Oxford Colleges, and a board member of the Australian based Institute of Public Affairs.

The variation in the ratio of carbon-12 and carbon-13 isotopes is a sensitive measure of changes in atmospheric CO2. These measurements are expressed in units of 13C and the values can be divided into two classes of CO2, that from biogenic or fossil fuel sources with 13C = -26 to -28 and from oceanic sources with 13C = +2 to -7. Over time the atmosphere exchanges CO2 with these sources and so has a 13C determined by the magnitude of these exchanges.

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