Articles Tagged "Joe Daleo"

Click source to read FULL report

On October 21st the Associated Press hit the wires with a story entitled Sea Ice Melting as Arctic Temperatures Rise.

The temperatures in the arctic have indeed risen in recent years and ice has declined, bottoming out in 2007 but it is not unprecedented nor unexpected. The arctic temperatures and arctic ice extent varies in a very predictable 60-70 year cycle that relates to ocean cycles which are likely driven by solar changes.

Click source to read FULL report from Joseph D’Aleo from IceCap.us

Warmist ‘scientists’ and psuedo-scientists’ are quick to question the role of the sun and oceans in multi-decadal climate changes. We saw the spin machine rush into action after the announcements from the American Astronomical Society meeting in Austin about the results of three separate studies that the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity greatly reduced or even eliminated like the Maunder Minimum during the Little ice Age. They swung into action after Don Easterbrook wrote on the implications of the quiet sun with the cooling Pacific and Joe Bastardi’s interview on Fox in which he talked about the ‘Triple Crown of Cooling - a quiet sun, cooling oceans potentially augmented by volcanism.

They won’t and can’t deny ENSO, the short term oscillations in the tropical Pacific that can cause large swings of global temperatures. You may hear them use La Ninas to explain away cool years and can’t wait for the New Year’s day to end when El Nino’s develop to predict the year will be the warmist ever due to greenhouse gases. They will never admit to the multidecadal cycles in the oceans as these might explain some or most of the warming they want you to believe are the result of your driving SUVs and our burning fossil fuels. While Joe Bastardi and I readily admit man has an affect on our climate through factors, especially locally like urbanization, land use changes, the addition of aerosols, etc, we believe natural factors can’t be neglected. We have used them for years successfully in our forecasting and are doing so now every day on WEATHERBELL.

Let’s look at one of these natural drivers, the PDO today.

The “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO) is a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability according to scientists at JISAO at the University of Washington.

The following is a reply to article in regard to Elaborate Nonsense from 1896 by Peter Ravenscroft.

Derek found the 1901 review of Angström’s criticisms that was published in Monthly Weather Review. I’ve transcribed it below in case any of you might wish to cite it. What stands out for me especially is Angström’s claim that Arrhenius failed to distinguish water vapor’s absorption from CO2’s, thus leading to an over-estimate of CO2’s absorptive power.AS

Monthly Weather Review, June 1901, page 268

KNUT ANGSTROM ON ATMOSPHERIC ABSORPTION.

While the recent Bulletin G by Prof. F. W. Very, on atmospheric radiation was in press, Prof. Knut Angström of Upsala, was preparing a short paper on the part played by aqueous vapor and carbon dioxid gas in the phenomena of absorption in the earth’s atmosphere, which was published in the Annalen der Physik immediately afterwards. In this memoir based on unpublished researches of Dr. J. Koch at Upsala, on the absorption of radiation from heat sources at different temperatures by various depths of gas, Professor Angström approximately determines the influence of a layer of carbon dioxid gas 30 centimeters thick and under a pressure of 780 millimeters, absorbing the radiation from a black body at 100° temperature, and finds that it is about 10 per cent and that it does not change more than four-tenths of one per cent of the original radiation when the pressure is decreased to 520 millimeters. He infers, therefore, that a layer so thick as to be equivalent to that contained in the earth’s atmosphere will absorb about 16 per cent of the earth’s radiation, and that this absorption will vary very little with any changes in the proportion of carbon dioxid gas in the air. This limitation of the absorption to spectral regions between definite wave lengths is also rendered very probable by Paschen’s observations in the Annalen der Physik, volume 51, page 33.

In this special report, NOAA claims rapid warming of the oceans and record ice melt.

”Analysis by the National Climatic Data Center revealed that March 2011 was the 13th warmest on record since 1880. Temperatures in much of the U.S., Siberia, and Africa yielded land surface temperatures that were 1.49 deg F (0.83 deg C) warmer than the 1971-2000 comparison period; Canada, China and Southeast Asia, and Australia were cooler than average. The average global ocean surface temperature was 0.65 deg F (0.36 deg C) above normal, but as La Nina continues to weaken, this number may actually increase.”

Dr. Roy Spencer notes: “The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for March 2011 fell to -0.10 deg. C, with cooling in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheric extratropics, while the tropics stayed about the same as last month. ”This is relative to the 1979-2010 mean. March 2011 was the 15th coldest March in the 33 of satellite data for the globe using the much more reliable UAH data set. That of course can’t be the case and be the 13th warmest in 122 years as NOAA claims.

As Steve Goddard comments here “Someone at NOAA is pulling facts out from where the sun never shines.” Another reason why congress needs to dedfund the NCDC and privatize it.

Click source to read FULL report from Joe Daleo

INTRODUCTION

The US congress sub-committee on Energy and Commerce Committee held hearings on whether to restrict in some way the EPA’s regulatory authority relative to greenhouse gas emissions.

There were 7 scientists invited to testify. Three of the four who argued not to restrict the EPA played a key role in the last IPCC report (and will also in the next one) and generally started with the position that IPCC science was sound and there was a consensus of all real scientists.

In the attached analysis we take a look at the IPCC based science. We are going to ignore all the many ‘gates’ that were uncovered like the Himalayan glaciers, Amazon rain forests, how many real scientists there were who authored the key summaries and all the issues as to whether the summaries truly reflected the scientific information in the chapters and despite claims to the contrary, how a significant percentage of citations were not peer reviewed.

We will not attempt to address the issues of sensitivity for CO2 or solar and cloud and water vapor feedbacks relative to the models. We will also ignore the many model shortcomings - like inability to forecast regional patterns, ocean oscillations, etc. Each of these alone discredit the consensus ‘settled science claim.

CLICK for LARGE VERSION of graph

MEDIA STATEMENT

For Immediate release

COOL YEAR PREDICTED

It is likely that 2011 will be the coolest year since 1956, or even earlier, says the lead author of a peer-reviewed paper published in 2009:

Our ENSO - temperature paper of 2009 and the aftermath by John McLean

The paper, by John McLean, Professor Chris de Freitas and Professor Bob Carter, showed that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, is a very good indicator of average global atmospheric temperatures approximately seven months ahead, except when volcanic eruptions cause short-term cooling.

The lead author, McLean, points to a fall in temperatures that began in October last year, seven months after the abrupt shift to La Nina conditions, and according to last month's data is still continuing.

"The delayed response is important for two reasons." McLean says, "Firstly the high annual average temperature in 2010 was due to the El Nino that ended around March but whose delayed effect on temperature continued until late in the year. Secondly it means that the ENSO conditions can be used to predict with reasonable confidence the average global temperatures up to seven months ahead."

Call it the mystery of the missing thermometers.

Two months after “climategate” cast doubt on some of the science behind global warming, new questions are being raised about the reliability of a key temperature database, used by the United Nations and climate change scientists as proof of recent planetary warming.

Two American researchers allege that U.S. government scientists have skewed global temperature trends by ignoring readings from thousands of local weather stations around the world, particularly those in colder altitudes and more northerly latitudes, such as Canada.

In the 1970s, nearly 600 Canadian weather stations fed surface temperature readings into a global database assembled by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Today, NOAA only collects data from 35 stations across Canada.

Worse, only one station -- at Eureka on Ellesmere Island -- is now used by NOAA as a temperature gauge for all Canadian territory above the Arctic Circle.

CLICK to download PDF file Coldest December and January period since 1895 in Florida, 3rd coldest in Georgia by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow