Articles Tagged "Doug L. Hoffman"

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Bleached Coral Reefs Bounce Back by Doug L. Hoffman
Wednesday, August 5th 2009, 3:48 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentBleached and dying coral reefs are often held up as proof that global warming is laying waste to Earth's ecosystems. Now come reports that a number of reefs around the world are being brought back from the dead by dedicated oceanographers and conservationists. “The results are more than just promising; they are beautiful,” says Baruch Rinkevich, a marine biologist at the National Institute of Oceanography in Haifa, Israel. But how can these reefs recover in the face on ongoing global warming? Either global warming has reversed course or the bleaching of reefs wasn't due to global warming in the first place.

In Jamaica, the Philippines, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and Zanzibar people are busy rebuilding reefs that have seen better days. Mineo Okamoto, a specialist in marine assessment techniques at Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, has been working to restore Sekisei Lagoon in Japan's Okinawa prefecture. Back in 1993 this remote coral lagoon was in pristine condition but, according to a report in Science, “Okamoto sensed that change was coming from global warming, with its threat of more-frequent bleaching events, and rising ocean acidification, which is caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and weakens corals.”
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Cloud Study Claims Unsuspected Positive Feedback by Doug L. Hoffman
Wednesday, July 29th 2009, 3:00 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentIn a stunning paper in Science, researchers claim to have reversed the impact of clouds on global climate. It has long been known that low level cloud cover creates a net cooling effect on climate. This new study, which concentrated on a restricted area of the Pacific Ocean, claims that warming oceans reduce low cloud cover letting in more sunlight that further warm the ocean and hence provide a positive feed back that adds to global warming. Based on a warming episode that started in 1978, the article claims that observational analysis showed that clouds act as a positive feedback in this region on decadal time scales. But a cometary on the article in the same issue of Science says that the analysis suggests—but falls short of proving—that clouds are strongly amplifying the warming. If it's true, then almost all climate models have got it wrong.

In a paper entitled “Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low-Level Cloud Feedback,” authors Amy C. Clement, Robert Burgman, and Joel R. Norris claim to have found this previously unsuspected positive feedback between cloud cover and global warming by studying records for a patch of the Northeast Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and and Mexico. According to the paper:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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CO2, Soot, Modeling and Climate Sensitivity
Thursday, July 16th 2009, 1:04 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentA new paper in Science reports that a careful study of satellite data show the assumed cooling effect of aerosols in the atmosphere to be significantly less than previously estimated. Unfortunately, the assume greater cooling has been used in climate models for years. In such models, the global-mean warming is determined by the balance of the radiative forcings—warming by greenhouse gases balanced against cooling by aerosols. Since a greater cooling effect has been used in climate models, the result has been to credit CO2 with a larger warming effect than it really has.

This question is of great importance to climate modelers because they have to be able to simulate the effect of GHG warming in order to accurately predict future climate change. The amount of temperature increase set into a climate model for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is called the model's sensitivity. As Dr. David Evans explained in a recent paper: “Yes, every emitted molecule of carbon dioxide (CO2) causes some warming—but the crucial question is how much warming do the CO2 emissions cause? If atmospheric CO2 levels doubled, would the temperature rise by 0.1°, 1.0°, or by 10.0° C?”
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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CO2 World Police Crack Down on Top Billion Polluters
Monday, July 13th 2009, 1:13 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment]A new paper by a group of “sustainability scientists” has called for an end to “business as usual” in efforts to curb CO2 emissions. The authors advocate allocating CO2 emissions targets based on the ‘‘common but differentiated responsibilities’’ of individuals, rather than nations. Their proposal moves beyond per capita considerations to identify the world’s high-emitting individuals, regardless of the country they live in. Don't laugh—if you are reading this post on the Internet you are probably one of the targeted billion.

OK, all you big CO2 emitters, this time it's personal. Global warming activists have finally realized that the world's yammering bureaucrats, jetting from one global warming conference to another, are not lowering humanity's carbon dioxide emissions—they may, in fact, be adding to the perceived problem. As a result, a number of social scientists have decided a change in focus is needed. Their plan is simple: shift the burden for reducing emissions from nations to individuals.

In a paper entitled “Sharing global CO2 emission reductions among one billion high emitters,” presented in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Shoibal Chakravarty of the Princeton Environmental Institute et al. claim that the current system for doling out national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets is unfair and being ignored. Instead, the propose a new emissions regulation scheme based on those citizens of the world with the biggest carbon foot prints. Here is how they described the new plan in the article abstract:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Could Human CO2 Emissions Cause Another PETM?
Monday, July 6th 2009, 4:46 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentWhen it comes to climate, the early Paleogene period (~65-34 mya), at the start of the Cenozoic Era, had one of the most Eden like climates of the Phanerozoic. As the Cenozoic progressed a cooling trend set in leading up to the formation of permanent ice caps and the Pleistocene Ice Age we are still experiencing. But before the world started to ice up our planet underwent one of the most dramatic bouts of global warming known to science—the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum or PETM. Recently, global warming activists have tried to liken human CO2 emissions to the cause of the PETM, 55 million years ago. Is it true, that our actions may trigger a sudden sharp rise in global temperature?

The mid-Cretaceous (~125-85 million years ago) and the early Paleogene are among the best known ancient “greenhouse” climate intervals—times when Earth's average temperature was significantly higher than they are today. During the Cenozoic (the last 65 million years) the global climate has cooled substantially, up to a main cooling step at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (~34 mya), which included the development of the first glaciation at a continental scale in Antarctica. Another main cooling step occurred in middle Miocene (14 mya) and was a significant step in the development of the Antarctic continental glaciation.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Ice Ages & CO2, Part II – Rising Sea-levels in Tahiti
Friday, June 26th 2009, 3:08 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentHaving reported that scientists did not find CO2 responsible for a change in the duration of ice age glacial periods 700,00 years ago, another new report takes a look at the conditions around the last interglacial warm period and our own Holocene warming. Using corals from the south seas paradise of Tahiti to track sea-level changes, researchers probed the mechanisms driving Earth's climate between glacial and interglacial states. Almost as an after thought they added that there is no longer any doubt: changes in sea-level drive changes in CO2, not the other way around.

In a paper appearing in the May 29, 2009, issue of Science titled “Penultimate Deglacial Sea-Level Timing from Uranium/Thorium Dating of Tahitian Corals,” Alex L. Thomas, et al., investigate the events that occur during a deglaciation, the change from a glacial period to an interglacial. Using uranium/thorium dating of fossil corals from around the South Pacific island of Tahiti and other locations, they reconstructed the rise and fall of sea-levels during periods of climate change. What they found was that the last period of change—the one resulting in the warm period we are now enjoying—behaved pretty much as scientists expected with regard to orbitally induced insolation changes. The previous transition was another matter however. Quoting from the paper's abstract:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Change In Ice Ages Not Caused By CO2
Sunday, June 21st 2009, 5:35 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentAround 1.2 million years ago, a shift in global climate began that caused a change in the timing of the alternating warm and cold periods—called interglacials and glacials—that have persisted during the Pleistocene Ice Age. Prior to that time, ice age glacial periods lasted about 40,000 years but since ~700,000 years ago ice-age cycles have lasted for around 100,000 years. Orbital variations, called the Croll-Milankovitch cycles, do exert some forcing on the 100,000 year time scale, but it is relatively weak. Orbital cycles seem to many too feeble an explanation for the change in glacial-interglacial timing. Some scientists have attempted to attribute the timing shift to a drop in CO2 but a new study confirms that carbon dioxide levels were not the cause of the climate shift.

The dominant period of Pleistocene glacial cycles changed during the mid-Pleistocene from 40,000 years to 100,000 years, for as yet unknown reasons. A new paper in the June 19, 2009, edition of Science investigates whether that shift could be attributed to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels. A group of researchers, led by Bärbel Hönisch, examined the factors that influenced the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) around 1250 to 700 thousand years ago. Here is the published abstract of the paper:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Seven Climate Models, Seven Different Answers by Doug L. Hoffman
Wednesday, June 17th 2009, 3:11 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentIn a new report, scientists used seven different climate models to assess human induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The first results from the LUCID (Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts) intercomparison study by Pitman et al. show no agreement among the models. This study indicates that land cover change is “regionally significant, but it is not feasible to impose a common LCC across multiple models for the next IPCC assessment.” In other words, this important factor is missing from current models and scientists are at a loss as to how to add it.

The study, soon to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, performed the type of analysis that was recommended in the 2005 National Research Council report on how to improve climate model accuracy. The results were both as expected, LCC proved to be an important missing factor, and unexpected in that none of the seven models tested yielded the same results. This throws modelers into a quandary regarding how to proceed. Here is the abstract of the paper by A. J. Pitman et al.:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Too Little CO2 To End Life On Earth by Doug L. Hoffman
Sunday, June 14th 2009, 6:13 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentIt is no surprise to anyone who has studied the history of our planet and the life it harbors that CO2 levels have been falling for billions of years. Despite all the hoopla over rising CO2 levels, eventually Earth will have lost so much carbon dioxide from its atmosphere that plants and trees will suffocate, signaling an end to life as we know it. Now, a team of scientists from the California Institute of Technology, led by physicist King-Fai Li, have proposed a way to avert disaster—get rid of much of the atmosphere.

In a paper titled “Atmospheric pressure as a natural climate regulator for a terrestrial planet with a biosphere,” published in the June 1 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Li et al., suggest that the life span of the biosphere can be extended at least 2.3 billion years, more than doubling previous estimates. Here is a description of the problem from the paper's online abstract:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Little Ice Age II, The Sequel? by Doug L. Hoffman
Wednesday, June 10th 2009, 1:54 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentThe lingering cool temperatures being experience by much of North America has weather forecasters wondering it we are entering a new Little Ice Age—a reference to the prolonged period of cold weather that afflicted the world for centuries and didn't end until just prior to the American Civil War. From historical records, scientists have found a strong correlation between low sunspot activity and a cooling climate. At the end of May, an international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA released a new prediction for the next solar cycle: Solar Cycle 24 will be one of the weakest in recent memory. Are we about to start a new Little Ice Age?

According to the report, Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a sunspot count well below average. “If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,” says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. This does not mean that we won't feel the results of renewed solar storm activity here on Earth.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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