Articles Tagged "Doug L. Hoffman"

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Reply to article: Doug L. Hoffman: Desperate Climate Scientists Blame Bad Weather On Global Warming
Thursday, July 12th 2012, 6:09 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentAfter decades of debunking and statements by responsible scientists that climate is not weather and individual anomalies are not an indication of climate change, the government funded IPCC lackeys at the UK's Met Office and America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have publicly attributed recent bad weather events to man-made climate change. These irresponsible boffins' shrill claims illustrate the desperation in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) camp in the face of declining public concern over climate change. While admitting that it is impossible to blame a single event on global warming, climate alarmists are claiming attribution is possible as long as it is framed in terms of probability. They have gone from lies, to damn lies and now, finally, to statistics.

As reported in that paragon of investigative journalism, the Huffington Post, the news originated from an online conference by NOAA personnel. “Climate Change, Extreme Weather Linked In Studies Examining Texas Drought And U.K. Heat,” the headlines blared. And according to author Deborah Zabarenko the news is dire: 2011 was among 15 warmest years globally; Extreme weather events show influence of climate change; Greenhouse gas levels in atmosphere reaches new high. Citing the Huffington article:

Overall, 2011 was a year of extreme events - from historic droughts in East Africa, northern Mexico and the southern United States to an above-average cyclone season in the North Atlantic and the end of Australia's wettest two-year period ever, scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the United Kingdom's Met Office said.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: New Climate Models Fall Short
Tuesday, May 29th 2012, 3:47 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The IPCC is working up to releasing pieces of its next climate report, starting in 2013. This has the world's climate scientists scrambling to get their latest work included in that dubious document. Foremost among those struggling for primacy of place are the computer modelers, those who study their own created worlds instead of the natural one around them. This report promises to be more contentious than the last one (AR4) in that the modelers have been racing to incorporate the effects of aerosols, soot and other airborne particulates that had previously been give scant attention. Early results suggest that aerosols have a much greater impact on regional climate than scientists had realized and that aerosols and clouds are providing some big surprises.

From space parts of Earth's surface appear pristine, white clouds painted on deep blue oceans or tan and green continents. But not all areas come into such clear focus—others are obscured by haze, clouds of a different nature made of fine particles known as aerosols. Airborne particulates do more than just obscure our planet's surface. By reflecting, absorbing and emitting radiation, they play a major role in regulating Earth's temperature, a role that has proved maddeningly difficult to simulate in computer models. A new crop of global climate models is in the offing, trying to reflect an increasing understanding of aerosols while at the same time climate scientists are discovering that they do not know as much about their old boogieman, CO2, as some would have us believe.

Smoke gets in their eyes
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Fossil Raindrops and the Faint Young Sun
Friday, May 18th 2012, 7:29 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
It is accepted that the ancient Sun was considerably cooler than our local star is today, so much so that Earth a few billion years ago should have been a lifeless frozen ball. But scientists have also shown that the planet was not frozen—shallow seas warmer than any modern ocean abounded with microbial life. A recent study, detailed in the journal Nature, is a good example of the sometimes convoluted, even improbable reasoning is used to get a handle on earthly climates during eons long vanished. Using the fossilized impact dimples from rain drops that fell 2.7 billion years ago, researchers have calculated new limits on the density of Earth's atmosphere. This, in turn, has implications on the development of the ancient atmosphere and what role greenhouse gases may have played in warming the young Earth.

The paradox of the Faint Young Sun has vexed scientists for decades, having first been raised by astronomers Carl Sagan and George Mullen in 1972. Applying the observation made by astrophysicists, that main sequence starts like the Sun grow steadily warmer as they age, and working back in time from current day conditions they posed an awkward question: why did the ancient Earth not freeze solid billions of years ago? In their new paper, “Air density 2.7 billion years ago limited to less than twice modern levels by fossil raindrop imprints,” the problem is framed this way by Sanjay M. Som et al.:

According to the ‘Faint Young Sun’ paradox, during the late Archaean eon a Sun approximately 20% dimmer warmed the early Earth such that it had liquid water and a clement climate1. Explanations for this phenomenon have invoked a denser atmosphere that provided warmth by nitrogen pressure broadening or enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. Such solutions are allowed by geochemical studies and numerical investigations that place approximate concentration limits on Archaean atmospheric gases, including methane, carbon dioxide and oxygen. But no field data constraining ground-level air density and barometric pressure have been reported, leaving the plausibility of these various hypotheses in doubt.

Click source to read FULL report from Doug L. Hoffman
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
Doug L. Hoffman: Stop Them, Before They Model Again
Tuesday, April 17th 2012, 4:30 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Evolution of uncertainties in reconstructed global-mean temperature projections under SRES A1B in the HadCM3L ensemble.

Just when it looked like the climate catastrophists had slunk back into well deserved academic obscurity, a new report in the journal Nature Geoscience has resurrected claims of Earth's impending climatic demise. A new computer climate study says to expect increases in temperature of up to 3°C by 2050, confirming or exceed predictions made by the IPCC reports. Can this model based report be considered any more accurate than previous attempts? Have modeling techniques suddenly improved? Or is this report's appearance in a major scientific journal the signal of a renewed round of scaremongering by eco-alarmists?

In these days of faltering economies and tight government spending there still seems to be an infinite amount of funding available to promote ever larger computer based climate studies. The latest such study, “Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble,” was published online on March 25, 2012. A veritable potpourri of international climate science boffins applied yet another technique to the problem of turning sow's ear climate model results into a silk purse predictions to help bolster the IPCC's flagging fortunes. The paper's abstract explains the work and motivation:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: So Insensitive
Sunday, March 25th 2012, 5:47 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentThe dire results of anthropogenic global warming have become passé. Treated by the news media and climate alarmists as established scientific fact, the IPCC's vision of a dystopian future, a world ravaged by global warming, is feed to our children in school, TV shows and Hollywood movies. What is never mentioned is that even the IPCC's predictions encompass several ranges of possible outcome, all predicated on a seemingly simple but mysterious factor called climate system sensitivity. A recent study, published in the journal Science, used spatially more complete paleoclimate data for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in an effort to improve previous estimates of climate sensitivity. The new results have not been widely reported in the news media because, according to the researchers, “these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.”

According to a team of researchers led by Andreas Schmittner from Oregon State University, “climate sensitivity is the change in global mean near-surface air temperature ΔSAT caused by an arbitrary perturbation ΔF (radiative forcing) of Earth’s radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere with respect to a given reference state.” More simply put, sensitivity to a forcing—carbon dioxide (CO2) for example—is based on measured change from a base equilibrium state to a new equilibrium state. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, denoted ECS2xC, has been estimated at 3 ± 1.5 °K, an estimate that has remained unchanged for the past three decades. Noting that this value suggests “a large uncertainty,” Schmittner et al. set out to improve that estimate. As described in an accompanying perspective article, by Gabriele C. Hegerl and Tom Russon, the study work was described this way:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: NASA Satellite Debunks Melting Glacier Myth
Saturday, March 10th 2012, 10:29 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
One of the claims put forth by climate change alarmists is that Earth's glaciers are rapidly melting. This supposedly causes all sorts of problems, from rising sea levels to failing water supplies. A recent report in the journal Nature uses NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite to measure the loss of glacial ice around the globe. Analysis of the satellite data on Earth's changing gravity field delivers some unexpected results and the results have surprising implications for both the global contribution of glaciers to sea level and the changes occurring in the mountain regions of Asia.

The story of melting glaciers has been told ad nauseam by climate catastrophists and the scientifically gullible news media for years. This blog has reported on the purported “rapid melting” of the Himalayan glaciers several times before (see “Himalayan Glaciers Not Melting” and “Himalayan Glacier Disappearance Overstated”). It is true that glaciers melt, they are the primary source of water in a number of regions around the world.

As I have often stated, this is an interglacial period, ice is supposed to melt. Otherwise there would still be a mile of ice on top of New York City. But despite evidence to the contrary, warmists continue to claim that glaciers are disappearing at an alarming rate. According to an accompanying News & Views article appearing in the same issue by Jonathan Bamber, from the Bristol Glaciology Centre:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Climate Impact Modeling Twice Removed From Reality
Monday, February 27th 2012, 2:03 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentClimate-impact models combine projections of change in physical climate with data on population, economic growth and other variables. The output of such models are used to make predictions regarding the cost of anthropogenic global warming, in both monetary and human terms. They are the source of dire predictions used to scare politicians and bludgeon the public into accepting draconian measures to curb human CO2 emissions. Unfortunately for the prophets of climate change catastrophe, the models' reports are far from being in agreement, leading more rational members of the public to doubt the models' veracity. To rectify this lack of believability, a new “fast-track” program to coordinate modeling studies and make “their narratives of possible futures more coherent and useful to decision-makers,” has been launched. In other words, it is an attempt to make sure that climate change propaganda is at least consistent.

Most followers of the climate change controversy are familiar with general circulation models (GCM), complicated computer models that attempt to simulate Earth's climate system and make predictions regarding humanity's impact on the environment. What is not often discussed are a second class of models that are used to predict the result of climatic change: climate-impact models. “For various emissions scenarios, they forecast climate-driven changes in crop yields, vegetation zones, hydrology and human health,” states Quirin Schiermeier in “Models hone picture of climate impacts,” a news focus article in the February 16, 2012, issue of the journal Nature.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Arctic Ocean To Close, Polar Bears Doomed
Saturday, February 18th 2012, 9:26 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
If it means putting off the next glacial onset, even polar bears will drive SUVs.

A new theory of supercontinent formation, published in the journal Nature, predicts that the Arctic ocean will be squeezed out of existence in the future as most of Earth's landmass gathers in a new supercontinent—Amasia. The new orthoversion helps to resolve the problems of the older introversion and extroversion models, which have led to a “fundamental disconnection … between the geologic evidence for supercontinent formation, and the models purported to explain their assembly.”

If the Arctic Ocean disappears so will the Polar Bear, an iconic species that has been held up as a poster child for global warming. The climate catastrophists are correct in predicting the demise of the white bear of the Arctic, but they have both the reason and time frame terribly wrong.

Tracing the formation and breakup of so called supercontinents back nearly two billion years, a team of Yale researchers have devised a new theory of how and where supercontinents form. Ross N. Mitchell, Taylor M. Kilian and David A. D. Evans looked at the transitions for the last three supercontinents—Nuna, Rodina and Pangaea—and concluded that new supercontinents tend to form 90° away from their predecessors. Here is how they summarized their findings in the report abstract:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Greenland Glacier Cycle Found
Saturday, February 11th 2012, 11:01 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment


Many of the more strident reports regarding runaway global warming center on rapid ice loss from the glaciers of Greenland. During the early 2000s the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced the largest ice-mass loss since accurate instrument readings have been kept. This was largely caused by the acceleration, thinning and retreat of large outlet glaciers in West and southeast Greenland. Now a new study in Nature Geoscience confirms that ice loss from the Helheim Glacier between 2003 and 2005 was the worst recorded—at least since the last period of rapid ice loss during the late 1930s.

We have all heard the reports by climate change alarmists, claiming that the glaciers of Greenland are losing ice at an accelerating rate—a sure indication of our impending doom as a result of anthropogenic global warming. A report in the journal Nature Geoscience by Camilla S. Andresen, et al., entitled “Rapid response of Helheim Glacier in Greenland to climate variability over the past century,” has confirmed that ice lost from some glaciers did, indeed, hit a peek during the last decade, even if the causes of this change in iceflow are not known. Quoting from the report:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Climate Skepticism the new Creationism?
Thursday, January 19th 2012, 9:37 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Victor Frankenstein was a better scientist than the climate alarmists.

Those who thought that the war was won and the forces of junk science—who prop up the climate change alarmists—were sent packing need to think again. With the new year, a new assault on climate skepticism is being waged on multiple fronts. Editorials in Nature and Science herald the resurgence of the climate catastrophists and their attempt to bamboozle the public, mislead government officials and brainwash our children. Wake up and smell the steer manure, the battle against the bogus boffins of climate hysteria is far from over.

With the the Arab Spring, recession and national default looming in Europe, and America being distracted by its quadrennial presidential circus there has been precious little mention of that old bugaboo, global warming, in recent days. So little news that the casual observer might think that the mater is settled and rationality has put paid to the alarmist rabble. Not so! To start off 2012, the editorial section of the British journal Nature has sounded a clarion call for a climate change resurgence.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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