Articles Tagged "Doug L. Hoffman"

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Doug L. Hoffman: Winter Sun
Wednesday, November 30th 2011, 3:22 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentDifference in winter surface climate for solar minimum minus solar maximum.

The impact of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been debated by many in the past. Based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological changes, the Sun-climate link seems obvious but, as is often stated, correlation does not prove causation. Previously, any link was disputed because the amount of energy delivered by the Sun was deemed too small to have a significant impact. New satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought, forcing a reevaluation of the impact of solar variation. A recent report in the journal Nature Geoscience claims to show just that—a link between the 11 year solar cycle and Northern Hemisphere winters.

Using older measurements of solar variability over the 11 year solar cycle as input, climate models have proven incapable of establishing linkage between insolation and climate. Still, there have been tantalizing reports of such linkage in the past (see “The Sun's Hidden Power”). In a report in the August 28, 2009, issue of the journal Science entitled “Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing,” Gerald A. Meehl et al. described a possible mechanism that could explain how seemingly small changes in solar output can have a big impact on Earth's climate. Their work explained how the upper atmosphere can act as a solar heat amplifier when UV radiation from the Sun increases.

Now, new, more accurate measurements taken by satellites have revised the amount of variability in insolation, particularly in the ultraviolet frequencies. In “Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere,” Sarah Ineson et al. have applied these new data to a revised climate model and report positive linkage between insolation variability and climate. The researchers explain the importance of the new satellite data.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Ice-shelf Collapse Not Caused By Global Warming
Tuesday, November 8th 2011, 5:02 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
An iceberg the size of Berlin is forming in Antarctica and is expected to break off from the Pine Island Glacier soon. As sure as night follows day, climate change alarmists will pronounce this a result of anthropogenic global warming—and they will be dead wrong. NASA scientists have already predicted the event and proclaimed it a part of a natural, ten year cycle that they have been studying for decades. The sad state of climate science is underlined by the fact that the researchers felt compelled to state that global warming is not the cause of the ice-shelf collapse.

Pine Island Glacier, or PIG for short, is one of the largest and fastest-moving masses of ice in Antarctica, accounting for around 10% of all the ice flowing out of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet into the ocean. A rift has formed in the shelf of floating ice where the PIG meets the sea, marked by a surface crack 60m (200ft) deep that runs for almost 30km (20 miles). When the rift becomes large enough a gigantic glacier will be formed that NASA researchers expect to cover about 880 sq km. The projected break away is expected at the end of the year or in early 2012.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Europe's CO2 Airline Armageddon
Wednesday, November 2nd 2011, 3:29 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentWill the EU become an international no-fly zone?

Starting on January 1, 2012, airlines flying to and from airports in the European Union (EU) will be forced into an emissions trading system that attempts to regulate CO2. The announced intention of this draconian cap-and-trade system is to save the world from the imagined ravages of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), but given the dire financial straits much of Europe finds itself in there is little doubt that Eurocrats will view this new policy as a potential source of revenue. Unfortunately, the new regulation threatens the entire structure of international air travel by unilaterally violating agreements that have been negotiated over decades. In seeking to avoid the imaginary dangers of global warming, the EU threatens the global air transport system with a very real CO2 Armageddon.

The 27 nation EU first imposed a cap-and-trade system in 2005, and last year the European Commission and European Parliament voted to explicitly include airlines in the system beginning in 2012. In essence, the new regulation imposes a carbon tax on jet fuel and taxing fuel used on international flights would violate International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) rules. While airlines have been actively pushing airframe and engine manufacturers to improve fuel efficiency of commercial airplanes—fuel cost is a major expense for air transport—those changes will take years to impact the world's air fleets. This is because airplanes, being very expensive, are often kept in service for decades in order to recoup their purchase cost.

Under the EU plan, carriers will receive credit for 85% of the CO2 they currently generate, with the credit declining over time. For emissions over the limit, the airlines will have to buy carbon credits from a CO2 trading market—part of the existing EU cap-and-trade system. If the tax only applied to emissions within the boarders of the EU it would not be so onerous, but the European bureaucrats in Belgium overreach themselves.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: A Walk In The Clouds
Tuesday, September 13th 2011, 1:55 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
The heliosphere deflects cosmic-rays. Svensmark.

Given that the Sun powers Earth's climate system and provides the energy for all life on our planet, it should come as no surprise that changes in solar activity can affect climate conditions. Because total solar irradiance varies only slightly, climate scientists have discounted our variable star as a driver of climate change. At the end of the 20th century, Heinrich Svensmark, of the Danish Space Research Institute, and Eigil Friis-Christensen proposed that solar activity may be a controlling factor for climate by changing low level cloud cover. Not surprisingly this idea was disparaged by mainstream climate science, since it would diminish the importance of greenhouse gases, CO2, the IPCC's favorite daemon, in particular. Now, after several years of experimentation at CERN, the preliminary results are in and it looks like Svensmark and Friis-Christensen were right after all.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Climate Science's Tangled Web
Thursday, September 1st 2011, 2:58 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment


Recent days have seen a number of announcements about our changing climate. As it turns out Arctic ice is rebounding, sea levels are dropping and things just are not going according to the IPCC's plan for catastrophic global warming. Faced with reversal after reversal, it might seem logical for mainstream climate scientists to admit that they are wrong, that global warming is not taking place at a breakneck pace, but this has not happened. Instead, climate change apologists are weaving a tangled web of excuses—hot is cold, wet is dry, up is down. No matter what happens to the world we live in, the root cause according to the doomsayers is always the same: it's always global warming's fault.

Sea level rise due to global warming has been a topic of intense debate for years. While the miniscule rise of the world's oceans has been fairly steady for most of the last 20 years, every once in a while sea levels do something unexpected. In the past two decades global sea levels increased at a rate of roughly 0.12 inches a year, compared to 0.07 inches from 1961 to 2003, according to satellite data. A recent study of sea levels, as measured by tide gauges, suggested the rate of ocean rise has declined in the past decade around Australia and New Zealand.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Driftwood On Ice
Thursday, August 11th 2011, 6:57 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentTracking the flow of ice in the Arctic is difficult. Reconstructing the extent and flow in times past is even more difficult. An interesting new report has turned to driftwood, embedded in the Arctic pack ice, as a way of deciphering Arctic climate conditions over the last 10,000 years. The researchers found a climate record that is in good agreement with previous histories, including such events as the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the Holocene Thermal Maximum. In fact, they found temperatures during the HTM to be 2° to 4°C higher than today. They also found a complementarity oscillation in sea-ice abundance between East and West that is not correctly simulated by current ice models.

Appearing in the August 5th, 2011, issue of Science, a report entitled “A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability—View from the Beach” uses driftwood, originating in northern Asia and America, as an indicator of Arctic ice flows in times past. Svend Funder and colleagues analyzed samples of driftwood that accumulated on Greenland’s raised beaches and shores using the wood type and carbon dating. The voyage around the Arctic can take several years and can only occur when wood is incorporated in sea ice from the beginning with land fast ice preventing the wood from landing elsewhere. The driftwood in Greenland is therefore an indicator of multiyear pack ice.

“Our key to the mystery of the extent of sea ice during earlier epochs lies in the driftwood we found along the coast,” said team leader Sven Funder. “One might think that it had floated across sea, but such a journey takes several years, and driftwood would not be able to stay afloat for that long.”

Using this driftwood record, the researchers discovered a couple of interesting anomalies. Unsurprisingly, current ice models do not account for these new finds. The paper's abstract summarizes the results.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Climate Malpractice
Monday, August 1st 2011, 4:40 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Climate alarmists have been pointing to the output of computer models for decades, insisting that the models could predict the future. The Earth is warming uncontrollably, they claim, and human CO2 emissions are the proximate cause. Others have argued that CO2 is not a powerful enough forcing factor to cause such a calamity. Still, the climate change catastrophists point to their models, claiming that the models do not lie. Now, according to data released by NASA, it seems that climate models not only can not predict the future, they do not even echo current conditions correctly. A new paper says climate scientists have misdiagnosed the surface temperature feedbacks and more heat is being radiated back into space than the models allow for. We have all been subjected to three decades of climate change malpractice.

According to Roy W. Spencer and William D. Braswell, both from the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, the magnitude of the surface temperature response of the climate system to an imposed radiative energy imbalance—the climate system's sensitivity—remains just as uncertain today as it was decades ago. In a stunning paper, “On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance,” published in the journal Remote Sensing, climate science's lack of progress in improving climate model accuracy is rooted in the complexity of the system being modeled and the inability to quantify feedbacks in the real climate system. The article's abstract nicely sums up the author's findings:

The sensitivity of the climate system to an imposed radiative imbalance remains the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future anthropogenic climate change. Here we present further evidence that this uncertainty from an observational perspective is largely due to the masking of the radiative feedback signal by internal radiative forcing, probably due to natural cloud variations. That these internal radiative forcings exist and likely corrupt feedback diagnosis is demonstrated with lag regression analysis of satellite and coupled climate model data, interpreted with a simple forcing-feedback model. While the satellite-based metrics for the period 2000–2010 depart substantially in the direction of lower climate sensitivity from those similarly computed from coupled climate models, we find that, with traditional methods, it is not possible to accurately quantify this discrepancy in terms of the feedbacks which determine climate sensitivity. It is concluded that atmospheric feedback diagnosis of the climate system remains an unsolved problem, due primarily to the inability to distinguish between radiative forcing and radiative feedback in satellite radiative budget observations.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: The Kingdom Of Darkness
Friday, July 29th 2011, 5:06 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment

Does ecological doom lie in our future?

North America, after suffering through a lingering cold, wet spring, is now experiencing a bout of record setting summer heat. Once again, the sizzling summer temperatures are being blamed on global warming. The prophets of climate catastrophe claim to be exposing mankind's folly by shining the light of science on humanity's sins against nature. Perhaps it is time to recall the words of Thomas Hobbs who described the Kingdom of Darkness as “nothing else but a confederacy of deceivers that, to obtain dominion over men in this present world, endeavour, by dark and erroneous doctrines, to extinguish in them the light.” With sweltering weather as their cover, minions of the ecological Kingdom of Darkness are again on the march.

As anyone living in the eastern half of the United States can tell you, North America has been suffering a prolong heatwave caused by a nearly stationary dome of high pressure. This has caused many areas to abruptly transition from a soggy spring to a parched summer. As reported on July 22, by Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground, numerous records have fallen as far north as Maine:

There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Climate Models Fail To Predict Past Catastrophes
Thursday, July 14th 2011, 5:35 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Most people fall into one of two categories when it comes to predictions of future climate calamities: they either do not realize that the predictions are predicated on computer models or they unquestionably trust the models to reveal the future. A clear and lucid online article in Nature Geoscience addresses the current state and limitations of climate modeling. The article points out that State-of-the-art climate models are largely untested against actual occurrences of abrupt change. “It is a huge leap of faith to assume that simulations of the coming century with these models will provide reliable warning of sudden, catastrophic events,” the author states. To counter claims of predicted “tipping points,” incidents of abrupt climate change from the past are examined—incidents that current models get wrong.

As all honest scientists know, predictions by experts of future climatic events are highly subjective. Human intuition fails when confronted with complex, non-linear systems like Earth's climate system. It is reasonable for climate scientists to turn to computer based climate models to provide some insight into how the Earth system might respond to various future changes. “Climate model simulations are the only other means for gaining advance knowledge of sudden climate change,” states Paul Valdes of the School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol. “It is therefore crucial to assess whether the available models are capable of investigating these phenomena.”

Motivation for modeling is simple—knowing what our planet's climate will do in the future would be very useful in developmental planning. In particular, the ability to predict sudden, possibly harmful changes in climate could drive policy, save money and even save lives. There have been a number of predictions of catastrophic future events, supposedly based on model output, but the question remains—are they credible? Such changes have undoubtedly occurred in the past. As Valdes states:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: Polar Bear Ruling Makes Mockery of Legal System
Friday, July 8th 2011, 3:16 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Polar bears are getting along quite well, thank you.

Recently, a US Federal Court ruled that placing polar bears on the endangered species list in 2008 was justified because it was based on the science available at the time and thus met the letter of the law. Yet the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has issued a report indicating that there was no change in the overall global polar bear population in the most recent four-year period. Nonetheless, a Federal Judge ruled that, even though the EPA's action was based on bad science, the misclasification was justified. As Dickens' put it in Oliver Twist: “If the law supposes that, the law is a ass — a idiot.”

In 2008, the George W. Bush administration decided to list the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. Since the US Fish and Wildlife Service first listed the bear the issue has been controversial: environmental groups wanted the bear listed as endangered, not threatened, giving it more protections; and industry groups and others didn't want it listed at all. This is why some are seeing the ruling by U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan of the District of Columbia as a backhanded defeat for environmental groups.

Thanks to the efforts of multiple environmental groups, the Polar Bear has come to symbolize the supposed impact of climate change on the natural world. In response, numerous plaintiffs have challenged the Listing Rule under the 1973 Endangered Species Act, claiming that the Service’s decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species was arbitrary and capricious and an abuse of agency discretion. In the Judge's 116 page opinion the complexity of the issue was described thus:
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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