Articles Tagged "David Whitehouse"

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David Whitehouse: Warming Underestimated - Does It Matter?
Wednesday, December 1st 2010, 3:30 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
It’s a curious phenomenon that examples of climate ‘forcing’ always seem to occur just before big environmental summits, and that the forcing only ever goes in one direction. The UN Climate Change meeting at Cancun this week is no exception. The UK’s Met Office, among others, released a series of statements and in the Met Office’s case a brochure about climate change. Their conclusion is that things are probably worse than we thought, and in their opinion, is worse than the current science is telling us. I suppose in the face of uncertainties in the science, and contradictory data, touting authoritative opinion is seen as a way to influence important meetings (the Royal Society obviously thinks the same), although it must be said that when it comes to opinion the Met Office track record for accuracy is not shining.

Just four lines of information released in the Met Office’s brochure attracted most of the attention in the media. It seems that there is a case to be made that ocean temperatures need to be adjusted. Prior to about 2002 they need to be lowered, and post 2002 they need to be raised slightly.

Those four lines were;

Changes in the way sea-surface temperatures were measured

over the last decade have introduced a small artificial cooling

of up to 0.03 °C over the last decade. This is being corrected

in a new version of the Met Office dataset.

Click source to read FULL report from David Whitehouse
Source Link: thegwpf.org
The Climate Coincidence: Why is the temperature unchanging? by David Whitehouse
Tuesday, November 9th 2010, 4:10 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
From: The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 9 November 2010

It seems probable that 2010 will be in terms of global annual average temperature statistically identical to the annual temperatures of the past decade. Some eminent climatologists, such as Professor Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, suggest the global annual average temperatures haven’t changed for the past 15 years. We are reaching the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the major feature of the recent global warm period that began in 1980. In brief, the global temperature has remained constant for longer than it has increased. Perhaps this should not be surprising as in the seven decades since 1940 the world has gotten warmer in only two of them, and if one considers each decade individually the increase in temperature in each has barely been statistically significant. Only when the warming in the 1980’s is added to that of the first half of the 1990’s does the change exceed the noise in the system.

But what does this 10-15 year temperature standstill mean?

For some it means nothing. Ten to fifteen years is too short a time period to say anything about climate they would argue pointing out that at least thirty years is needed to see significant changes. They also point out that this decade is warmer than the 1990’s and the 1990’s were warmer than the 1980’s and that is a clear demonstration of global warming.
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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The Flaw Of Averages by David Whitehouse
Tuesday, October 19th 2010, 2:32 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
There seems to be a lot of reverse logic about at the moment. It appeared in the recent paper by Haigh et al concerning new observations made of the solar spectrum. When plugged into atmospheric models the researchers found that using spectrum observations made between 2003 and 2007 (the declining phase of the recent solar cycle) they noticed that whilst the Ultra-Violet from the sun had decreased the visible radiation had increased, causing a warming on Earth. Then the authors speculated that the reverse might be true, that is that if the visible radiation decreases at solar maximum then the earth might cool.

In another recent paper by Andrew Lacis et al the same approach is used. The paper claims to have proven that it is the amount of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere that is the prime regulator for the Earth’s global temperature. They reached this conclusion by using a computer climate model in which they removed all Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere and noticed it had a large effect. Basically the world froze. They then concluded that adding a similar amount to the atmosphere must therefore also have a considerable effect but in the other direction, i.e. warming.

Whilst one ponders the implications of that logic there was another aspect to the Lacis paper that made me wonder.

It starts by noting that the surface temperature of the Earth without the Greenhouse Effect would be 255 K and that with the Greenhouse Effect it rises by 33 K to 288 K. Then they assume that the 255 K is the black body temperature of a non-greenhouse Earth as a result of the 240 Watts / sq m of energy that comes from the sun.
Source Link: thegwpf.org
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The climate is changing. But it always has by David Whitehouse
Saturday, October 16th 2010, 1:33 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The global climate is changing. It always has. Fifteen thousand years ago the place where I am writing this (Hampshire, England) was Arctic tundra on which almost nothing could live. The glaciers reached not far north of here, and places that were to become Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow were under a kilometer of ice. When the ice receded Britain was completely covered in trees. That the trees are fewer was due to early man. That the ice is no longer here was due to natural climatic cycles.

Few doubt that the world has warmed in the past thirty years. We have reasonably good global temperature records for the past 150 years and, in general, they show a gradual warming, possibly from the cold spell in the 17th century some call the ‘Little Ice Age.’

Temperatures at a plateau

From 1850 to about 1910, the temperature did not change very much at a time when the world was somewhat colder than it is today. Between 1910 and 1940 there was a sustained warming, 0.4 deg C in 30 years. Then there was a period of 40 years when again the temperature did not change much. Just before1980 it started rising again, 0.4 deg C in 25 years, but this rise ceased in 2000. We live in the warmest decade for at least 150 years, probably longer, but in the last decade the global average annual temperature has remained at a plateau.
Source Link: troymedia.com
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Is 2010 Heading For A Record? by David Whitehouse
Thursday, June 3rd 2010, 6:59 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Today’s Times says, “Nasa analysis showing record global warming undermines the skeptics.” However, a closer look at the information which the Times bases its headline on shows that a combination of selective memory and scientific spin play a large role in arriving at it.

The conclusion is based on a new paper written by James Hansen and submitted to Reviews of Geophysics. The paper released by Hansen has not been peer reviewed, and he admits that some of the newsworthy comments it contains may not make it past the referees.

Hansen claims that, according to his Gisstemp database, the year from April 2009 to April 2010 has a temperature anomaly of 0.65 deg C (based on a 1951 – 1980 average) making it the warmest year since modern records began. It is a fractionally warmer than 2005 he says, although an important point to be made is that statistically speaking, taking into account the error of measurement and the scatter of previous datapoints, it is not a significant increase.

The Nasa study said: “We conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.20 deg C per decade that began in the late 1970s.”
Source Link: thegwpf.org
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BSE, Climate Change and Science Journalism
Tuesday, May 26th 2009, 11:04 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Dear Benny,

It is very interesting to see today’s story on BBC News Online about BSE/CJD “vCJD carrier risk overestimated.” It is the latest in a long line of similar assessments of the vCJD situation.

After many years of sporadic interest the BSE/vCJD story took off in 1996 after an admission in parliament by the health minister that there was a link between BSE contaminated meat and a new strain of the degenerative vCJD brain disease that had afflicted a handful of people. Initially, few people knew anything definite about the disease and its possible progression and, depending upon assumptions, computer models predicted anything from a small number of people being affected to a large fraction of the population. While such uncertainty existed it was right for journalists to reflect the scientific situation but as I was science correspondent for BBC Radio at the time, I soon began to realise the tension between science and journalism and the changing approach to science within BBC News at the time.

Updated below from The Register
Source Link: staff.livjm.ac.uk
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