The Met Office is very cross with me. Well you can hardly blame it given that I've just published a big piece explaining what a spectacular waste of taxpayers' money it is.
So now it has used some of the £200 million we pay it every year to get one of its in-house turd-polishers to publish a defiant blogpost defending its inglorious forecasting record, such as its non-existent "barbecue summer" and the terrible, snow-bound winter of 2010 which, as late as October that year, it was confidently predicting would be "unusually dry and mild."
The Met Office's pathetic defence? That its five day forecasts accurately predicted all the weather events I claimed it failed to predict – and here to prove it was a letter from an Assistant Chief Constable and a successful complaint to the Press Complaints Commission.
This is just the kind of weaselly obfuscation you'd expect from an organisation as politicised and compromised as the Met Office. Here it is, misleadingly defending itself against a criticism which was never actually made. No one is quibbling with the Met Office's five-day forecasts: indeed in the article I quoted the Global Warming Policy Foundation's Dr David Whitehouse praising their accuracy. Rather, the issue is with the Met Office's medium-range forecasts, which for years have persistently erred on the side of predicting non-existent warmth because they have been corrupted by exactly the same dodgy computer models which tell us that as CO2 rises so inexorably will "global warming." For more details, read my old blog post The Met Office: Lousier Than A Dead Octopus.
An article by James Delingpole appears in the Daily Mail today under the headline ‘The crazy climate change obsession that’s made the Met Office a menace’.
This article contains a series of factual inaccuracies about the Met Office and its science, as outlined below.
Firstly, he claims the Met Office failed to predict snow in 2010, but our 5-day forecasts accurately forecast 12 out of 13 snowfall events – as you can see in this article. In addition the Press Complaints Commission has also already addressed this fallacy with the Daily Telegraph in February of last year. As a result the newspaper published a clarification that highlighted that “the Met Office did warn the public of last winter’s [2010/11] cold weather from early November 2010.”
Mr Delingpole also says we failed to predict flooding in November last year. Once again, our 5-day forecasts gave accurate guidance and warnings throughout the period. In just one example of feedback the Met Office has received for highly accurate forecasting and guidance throughout 2012, Assistant Chief Constable Paul Netherton, Chair for the Local Resilience Forum for Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly (which was one of the areas most affected by flooding in November), said: “[I] would like to formally thank and recognise the hard work of the Met Office over the past week. The information you provided was invaluable and enabled the responders in Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly to prepare and respond effectively to assist our communities.”
In a December 28 post, blogger Greg Laden, a self-described “biological anthropologist and science communicator,” ranked The Heartland Institute’s efforts to expose global warming alarmism as one of the “top climate stories of 2012”.
I suppose we should be flattered, but Laden’s error-filled explanation for including us in the list requires some corrections:
Heartland isn’t a “climate denial ‘think’ tank.” Last time I checked, no Heartland spokesperson ever denied the existence of the climate, or even climate change.
Heartland didn’t “implode” or “suffer major damage” in 2012. In fact, we increased receipts by about 15% from 2011, increased the number of donors nearly four-fold, more than doubled the number of policy advisors (to 237), and set records for press attention and online traffic for our sites. 2012 was a breakthrough year for us, thanks in no small part to the attention generated by our work on global warming/cooling.
A staunch liberal and former navy weather expert writes to the New York Times and his local newspaper, the Summit Daily News to correct absurd media claims connecting ‘Superstorm Sandy’ to man-made global warming.
Citing one of the world’s top meteorologists as his source Dr. Martin Hertzberg tears a hole in the cherry-picked alarmist claims made in an article by Tim Lydon, an Alaskan parks ranger and occasional jobbing journalist who gets plenty of column inches pontificating about meteorology without any apparent science training. Dr. Hertzberg is co-founder and senior fellow of Principia Scientific International, a fast-growing science body campaigning for higher standards and greater transparency in discredited government science. While the Summit Daily News has published Hertzberg’s riposte there was no such joy at the NYT. Below is an unabridged version of Hertzberg’s letter:
They say truth is the first casualty of war. In the war of words over climate change, that is plainly the case.
On Nov. 25, The Post ran a news article by reporter Juliet Eilperin [“Climate skeptics target energy law”] that falsely claimed my organization, the Heartland Institute, received millions of dollars from ExxonMobil and foundations affiliated with Charles G. and David H. Koch.
Not true. Over the course of a decade, ExxonMobil gave less than a tenth of the amount reported, never amounting to even 5 percent of our annual receipts. The reported level of support from the Kochs was even more egregiously wrong: Except for a gift of $25,000 last year for our work on health-care reform, the Kochs hadn’t donated a dime since 1998.
The Post ran a correction in the paper and on its Web site, but the damage was done. The article has been reprinted without correction in newspapers throughout the country. It adds to the false narrative that the only people and organizations that question the dogma of man-made global warming are shills for the oil industry.
Never has an undercover video sting delighted its victims more. A Greenpeace investigation has caught some Tory MPs scheming to save the countryside from wind farms and cut ordinary people's energy bills while Lib Dems, Guardian writers and Greenpeace activists defend subsidies for fat-cat capitalists and rich landowners with their snouts in the wind-farm trough. Said Tories will be inundated with fan mail.
We wrote only last week that it seems that it is the time of year again for colourful headlines about an impending big freeze.
We had them at this time last year, which prompted our Chief Executive to write an opinion piece in The Times. Now we have very similar stories again, with the front page of the Daily Express declaring last week ‘Coldest winter freeze on way’ and warning that temperatures are set to plunge as low as -15C and again a week on we have another front page from the Daily Express which declares ‘Coldest winter for 100 years on way‘. with the UK expected to grind to a halt within weeks.
These longer range forecasts for December and January have not come from the Met Office and a look at our current 30 day forecast provides perhaps a more measured assessment of our weather prospects to the middle of December:
As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. Whilst changeable conditions are considered more likely initially, some signs are beginning to emerge for more settled conditions to develop over parts of Europe. The signal is that these conditions may extend towards the UK during the first part of December. So, although there are no strong indications of any particular weather type predominating, on balance, colder and drier-than-average conditions are favoured over the recent mild and damp weather many areas have experienced.
What is clear from the forecast is that although there are some signs that after a rather unsettled period, the weather may become colder and drier than we have seen recently there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast which again the article has failed to pick up on and report to its readers.
It seems that it is the time of year for colourful headlines about an impending big freeze. We had them at this time last year, which prompted our Chief Executive to write an opinion piece in The Times.
Now we have very similar stories again, with the front page of the Daily Express declaring ‘Coldest winter freeze on way’ and warning that temperatures are set to plunge as low as -15C.
There have been other stories elsewhere along similar lines, with some saying that the Met Office is briefing the Government about a cold winter ahead.
So what are the facts behind the headlines?
Some of the stories have taken a cue from parts of our current 30-day forecast. Today’s forecast for 26 November to 10 December reads as follows:
As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions than at present are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.
They say truth is stranger than fiction. And here is the proof. Let’s begin at the end, or where an “end” might be perceived today.
Climatologist, Michael Mann is now exposed by the Nobel Committee perjuring himself in his botched courtroom capers hoping to silence critics of his junk climate science claims. Even the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has now thrown Mann under the bus. But what has that got to do with the Huffington Post and their lies about me? Well, it seems that HuffPo’s ploy to trash my name has backfired as badly as Mann’s phony Nobel Prize claims. In their haste to trash my name HuffPo has exposed at least one of Mann’s own witnesses also committing perjury.
In this article we see there are no “white lies” told by this cheating scientist and his cronies. Lies perpetrated by Mann, and at least one other co-conspirator, are lies given under oath in a court of law with the express intention of inflicting serious financial harm on an opposing litigant. This matter refers specifically to the now crumbling Mann-v-Ball lawsuit filed last year in the British Columbia Supreme Court.
It seems in the interim Mann’s Canadian lawyer recruited a disgraced former journalist from the Journal of the American Medical Association to provide faked evidence to smear me and thus Tim Ball, by association.
Last week The Mail on Sunday provoked an international storm by publishing a new official world temperature graph showing there has been no global warming since 1997.
The figures came from a database called Hadcrut 4 and were issued by the Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at East Anglia University.
We received hundreds of responses from readers, who were overwhelmingly critical of those climate change experts who believe that global warming is inevitable.
But the Met Office, whose lead was then followed by climate change campaigners, accused The Mail on Sunday of cherry-picking data in order to mislead readers. It even claimed it had not released a ‘report’, as we had stated, although it put out the figures from which we drew our graph ten days ago.