Articles Tagged "2010 Forecast"

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Christopher Booker: It's 'the hottest year on record', as long as you don't take its temperature
Saturday, December 18th 2010, 2:35 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Much of the data cited to support warmist claims is pure conjecture.

We have lately heard much of the claim that 2010 will turn out to have been “the hottest year on record”. No one has done more to promote this belief than Dr James Hansen, head of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), responsible for one of the four main official global temperature records.

As reported by the US blogs Real Science and Watts Up With That, in a post headed “GISS temperatures out of line with the rest of the world”, the GISS record has in recent months been diverging wildly from the others. While three have shown global temperatures dropping sharply, by as much as 0.3C, the GISS figures (based, despite the link to Nasa, on surface temperatures) have shot up by 0.2C.

In a second post (“Hansen’s 'Hottest Year Ever’ is primarily based on fabricated data”), Real Science demonstrates that the parts of the world which GISS shows to be heating up the most are so short of weather stations that only 25 per cent of the figures are based on actual temperature readings. The rest are simply conjectured by GISS. This is not the first time Dr Hansen’s temperature record has come under expert fire. Three years ago, GISS was forced to revise many of its figures when it was shown that wholesale “adjustments” had been made, revising older temperatures downwards and post-2000 figures upwards.
Source Link: telegraph.co.uk
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Opposing Views: Global Temperature and Europe's Frigid Air by James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato and Ken Lo
Monday, December 13th 2010, 7:24 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Figure 1(a) shows January-November 2010 surface temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-80) in the preliminary GISS analysis. This is the warmest January-November in the GISS analysis, which covers 131 years. However, it is only a few hundredths of a degree warmer than 2005, so it is possible that the final GISS results for the full year will find 2010 and 2005 to have the same temperature within the margin of error.

As described in an in-press paper (link provided below) that defines the GISS analysis method, we estimate a two-standard-deviation uncertainty (95 percent confidence interval) of 0.05°C for comparison of global temperatures in nearby recent years. The magnitude of this uncertainty and the small temperature differences among different years is one reason that alternative analyses yield different rankings for the warmest years. However, results for overall global temperature change of the past century are in good agreement among the alternative analyses (by GISS, NOAA National Climate Data Center, and the joint analysis of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit).


Click source to download PDF file to read FULL report from James Hansen, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato and Ken Lo
Source Link: columbia.edu
Britain has coldest year since 1996 (but it will be the second hottest year since 1850 for the rest of the world) by David Derbyshire
Sunday, December 12th 2010, 12:59 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Britain has experienced its coldest year since 1996, the Met Office revealed last night.

On a day when most of the country was shivering under a thick blanket of snow, forecasters said average temperatures over the last 12 months had dipped after a run of warm years.

However, the UK appears to be bucking the global trend.

According to a new report world temperatures in 2010 are on course to be the second hottest since records began in 1850....

....The revelation that 2010 was a sizzling year may come as a surprise to many Britons.
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk
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Just How Hot Was 2010? by Jerry Pournelle
Friday, December 10th 2010, 9:58 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
I am bombarded by conflicting reports of the 2010 weather. On the one hand it is said to have been a cold year, with record colds in many places. On the other hand, the IPCC is predicting that 2010 will be one of the three hottest years of all time. (Here also) And on the gripping hand, I doubt that those who say it was cold, and those who say it was hot, will be very specific about the means used to report the average annual global temperature. I do note that the places where it is said to have been very much hotter than it has ever been are also among the least reliable in past reports, but perhaps that is a coincidence.

Regarding averages: I would think that a year in which the winters were very cold, and the summers were very hot, so that you end with a more moderate average temperature would be an entirely different climate from a year in which there were few extremes of any kind, but the average was a bit higher than the year before. Average annual temperature of a planet may be of interest to astronomers and climate modelers concerned with trends, but it’s useless to people trying to plan their lives. Moreover, I’d think that a climate model that doesn’t distinguish between extreme weather that averages out and more moderate ways of producing the same average is not likely to be a very good model. Of course we can assume some climate relationships that don’t have to account for extremes vs. moderates producing the same average, but surely when we do that we are relying on stationary time series or some other kind of statistical predictions rather than an accurate model of processes.

Statistical prediction models can be quite accurate, but since they are not based on an understanding of what’s going on, they are subject to black swans: some unexpected event like a volcano eruption may happen to disrupt continuity; those who have physical models of climate will see a weather change coming (like the Year Without a Summer); those using statistical models will not predict that at all.
Source Link: mensnewsdaily.com
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David Whitehouse: 2010 - An Unexceptional El Nino Year
Monday, December 6th 2010, 9:51 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
If the media headlines are to be believed 2010 is heading to be either the warmest or in the top three warmest years since the instrumental global temperature records began 150 years ago, and proof that the world is getting ever warmer. But looking more closely at the data reveals a different picture.

2010 will be remembered for just two warm months, attributable to the El Nino effect, with the rest of the year being nothing but average, or less than average temperature.

With November and December¹s data still to come in (that will account for 16% of the year¹s data) the UK Met Office estimates the temperature anomaly (with respect to the end of the 19th century) for 2010 so far as 0.756 deg C. As it has been cooling for the past 4 months we can expect that figure to decline below the 2005 0.747 deg C level and the El Nino influenced 1998 of 0.820 deg C.

2010 will therefore be no higher than the third warmest year, possibly lower.
Source Link: thegwpf.org
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David Rose: What happened to the 'warmest year on record': The truth is global warming has halted
Sunday, December 5th 2010, 7:27 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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A year ago tomorrow, just before the opening of the UN Copenhagen world climate summit, the British Meteorological Office issued a confident prediction. The mean world temperature for 2010, it announced, 'is expected to be 14.58C, the warmest on record' - a deeply worrying 0.58C above the 19611990 average.

World temperatures, it went on, were locked inexorably into an everrising trend: 'Our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010-2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far - 1998.'

Met Office officials openly boasted that they hoped by their statements to persuade the Copenhagen gathering to impose new and stringent carbon emission limits - an ambition that was not to be met.

Last week, halfway through yet another giant, 15,000delegate UN climate jamboree, being held this time in the tropical splendour of Cancun in Mexico, the Met Office was at it again.
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk
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Opposing Views: Met Office says 2010 'among hottest on record' by Roger Harrabin, BBC Environment analyst
Saturday, November 27th 2010, 12:17 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Click source to read FULL report from Roger Harrabin, BBC Environment analyst
Source Link: bbc.co.uk
You Could Not Make It Up: Hansen projects hottest year on record... in 2012 Were extreme events caused by global warming? by Andrew Freedman
Wednesday, October 6th 2010, 5:42 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
According to James Hansen, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), 2010 may not wind up being the hottest year in the modern temperature record after all. In an analysis posted last week, Hansen said the onset and intensification of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean have cooled global average surface temperatures, and despite the record heat in the first eight months of the year, 2010 may wind up either tied with or behind 2005, currently the warmest year in the GISS analysis.

Other climate research institutions, including the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also keep such records and typically rank years slightly differently. For example, in the GISS analysis, June-July-August 2010 was the fourth warmest on record, but according to NOAA's methods it was the second warmest.

"It is likely that the 2005 and 2010 calendar year means will turn out to be sufficiently close that it will be difficult to say which year was warmer, and results of our analysis may differ from those of other groups," Hansen wrote. "What is clear, though, is that the warmest 12-month period in the GISS analysis was reached in mid-2010."

Click source to read FULL report by Andrew Freedman
Source Link: voices.washingtonpost.com
You Could Not Make It Up: NASA reports hottest January to August on record - August tied for hottest in UAH satellite record* by Joseph Romm
Sunday, September 12th 2010, 3:49 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Last month, NASA reported it was the hottest January-July on record, along with a terrific analysis, “July 2010 — What Global Warming Looks Like,” which noted that 2010 is “likely” to be warmest year on record.

This month continues the trend of 2010 outpacing previous years, according to NASA:

Click source to read FULL report from Joseph Romm!

Also see the Climate Realists articles for SatelliteGate

See below for what Joe Bastardi had to say earlier in the year
Source Link: theenergycollective.com
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Another cold Arctic summer by Lawrence Solomon
Friday, September 10th 2010, 8:48 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
The summer of 2010 was unusually cold, according to the Centre for Ocean and Ice at the Danish Meteorological Institute. For almost the entirety of the June to August period, mean daily temperatures were below the corresponding daily temperatures over the past half century during which the Centre has maintained records.

The cold progress of this past Arctic summer can be seen in the Centre’s graph, seen here. The red line – this year’s temperatures – falls below the green bell curve starting just before Day 150 (late May) of 2010, indicating that just about every day this last summer was colder than normal. The green bell curve represents the historical record — the temperatures that the Arctic has experienced since 1958.

Of even greater significance for those concerned about a melting of the Arctic ice, however, is the graph’s blue line, which indicates the freezing point of water. When the red line appears above the blue line, temperatures are above 0 degrees and ice will melt. As the graph shows, the unseasonably cold summer gave the Arctic a short melt season in 2010. With temperatures in September now plummeting, 2010 is unlikely to log any more melt days, and the Summer of 2010 will go down in the history books as yet another year in which the Arctic did not melt.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers. To see the Danish Meteorological Institute’s graph, click here.
Source Link: opinion.financialpost.com
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