Now the BBC have also joined in with a similar point of view with Charlotte Pritchard - "Should scientists stop giving advice?" All I can stress on these two essays is how far removed would it be for when the day comes, that the Met Office and other Institutions admit their failure to correctly correlate CO2 to Global Warming and also face crimminal action.
Just like scientists have at the L'Aquila earthquake trial, the Met Office and other Institutions have tried to achieve an impossible task as a result of Government Policy, rather then science....maybe that day is not far away!
This week six scientists and one government official were sentenced to six years in prison for manslaughter, for making "falsely reassuring" comments before the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. But was this fair?
I had to pinch myself over this story from Graeme Archer at The Telegraph.....The L'Aquila earthquake trial reminds us that scientific evidence shouldn't determine public policy!..Graeme have you not thought of another area this may apply?
People find it hard to understand the nature of risk: discuss. A pertinent assertion, in the week that scientists have been found guilty in an Italian court for understating the likelihood of the L’Aquila earthquake. Moreover, the assertion is true, as can easily be demonstrated. Stand behind someone in the queue at WH Smiths while they purchase a lottery ticket, and watch the care with which they select “their” (irrelevant) numbers. Or travel across the Atlantic on a plane, sat beside me.
The former is less physically demanding, as I’m less likely to claw at your arm in terror during the purchase of a lottery ticket than I am while the plane bounces around in turbulence. There’s no point telling me that there’s a very low probability of falling from the sky in a ball of flame, that such disasters happen only rarely. I don’t care about “long-run” arguments: I care about this flight. If the probability of any event is non-zero – if there’s a finite chance that it will occur – then it will happen, at some point; and nothing in the construction of a long-run probability (in its English sense, or its precise mathematical expression) has anything useful to say about any particular instance of any particular flight.
Although "One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer", I can't help feel all is not well with the results of Solar Cycle 24 so far. After my read of Climate Change and the Quiet Sun by informthepundits.wordpress.com, I get the feeling in their conclusion section that they still believe CO2 changes temperatures rather then temperatures change CO2. However apart from that point, they have put together some interesting facts about the current state of Solar Cycle (SC24) and using a quick makeover of their Solar Cycle Chart (above) I have put a little light on how I believe the next few Solar Cycles should shape up in the next decade or Two or even longer!
I have highlighted three periods of time where a group of Solar Cycles were running about the same level as now (right hand side in yellow) or lower.
Two areas are well known, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum, these two sections can be regarded as being historically COLD, however there was another period that was regarded as a COOL period (1880 - 1905), and as you can see from my modified chart it also fits in with the similar level of Solar Activity as we have at this present moment of time.
The CRAZY thing is, "Green" Government policy is preparing us for the world to become WARM & HOT and as you can see from my crude forecast it looks more and more like it will be COOL & COLD.....more to follow in the next few years!
It seems a simple enough question - yet it has baffled the best brains for at least 2,300 years.
•Aristotle agonized over it fruitlessly in the fourth century BC
•Roger Bacon in the 13th century used it to advocate the scientific method in his book Opus Majus •Another Bacon, Francis, wrote in his 1620 Novum Organum, that "slightly tepid water freezes more easily than that which is utterly cold" but could not explain why
•Descartes was defeated by it in the 17th century AD
•Even perplexed 20th and 21st century scientists and intellectuals have swarmed over it without result
An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it’
It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some misleading information, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme – you see our response to that one here.
To address some of the points in the article published today:
Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit.
We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here.
I had noticed that there was a return of the Jet Stream to it's "normal" location over the UK leaving it's "tail" behind over the Mediterranean where there was also a major storm that followed in it's path. My notes on this at the time stated the following, and I would say this...these would be the same remarks I would also make TODAY, as it's the very same situation all over again:
I had a look at one indicator (TropicalStormRisk.com) to see if there was any sign of a "power up" going on with Tropical Storms and drew a blank on that. Then I looked at the netweather.tv to see if the Jet Stream had any significant movement, this, unlike the fast "power up" we see with tropical storms, can take a few days to materialise. The result is quite astonishing....The Jet Stream has now risen up to the North of the British Isles leaving it's tail behind (Red arrow) with disastrous results...
The UK has seen some very wet and windy weather since the early hours of Sunday morning and that is set to continue in places for the next couple of days – but what has brought these disruptive conditions?
As is the norm, a low pressure which moved in from the Atlantic is to blame, bringing bands of heavy rain and strong winds (as you can see from the tightly packed isobars on the image below).
Forecast synoptic chart for 12:00 on Tuesday 25 September showing the low pressure over the UK.
We will have to see in the next week or so if I am correct on this forecast, but one thing is clear from that location, come December the IcePack would have returned to a normal level...more to follow.
A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. Credit: NASA/Goddard Science Visualization Studio
The following is the latest NASA forecast for SC24 "Maxima" from David Hathaway, he has moved yet another prediction from Spring 2013 to the "Fall", I can't help think it may have already happened!.....more to follow.GR
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 76 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. We are currently well over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.