Articles Tagged "UK Winter Forecast 2010/11"

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Put spring on ice: Dry January makes way for another cold snap as more snow is forecast: Updated by Piers Corbyn
Tuesday, February 15th 2011, 6:04 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Don't pack the winter woollies away just yet - snow is forecast to return to parts of Britain by the weekend as temperatures plunge once again.

The Met Office warned that the mercury could drop dramatically over the next few days - bringing the chance of snow showers to the North East and Scotland.

And even though the temperatures will remain above freezing in London and the South, blustery winds will make it feel lot colder.

The return of winter follows a drier than normal January - and the coldest December since records began 100 years ago.

Met Office forecaster John Hammond said western parts of the UK would see milder weather - but that temperatures would be lower in the north.

Click source to read FULL report from David Derbyshire

Updated below with comments by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk
U.K. Natural Gas Contracts Fall on Forecasts for Milder Weather by Ben Farey
Wednesday, February 9th 2011, 8:25 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. natural gas declined amid forecasts for milder weather that may curb demand for heating.

National Grid Plc forecast gas demand at 331 million cubic meters in the 24 hours through 6 a.m. tomorrow, about 30 million below normal for the time of year. The nation’s pipelines will hold 351 million cubic meters of gas at that time, about 1 million more than at the start of today.

The weather “will become mild” tonight, the U.K.’s Met Office said on it website. London temperatures may rise to 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) tomorrow from a high of 1 degree today, CustomWeather Inc. data show.

Gas for same-day delivery fell 1.6 pence, or 2.9 percent, to 54.15 pence a therm at 4:30 p.m. in London, according to broker prices compiled by Bloomberg. That’s equal to $8.71 a million British thermal units. Gas for tomorrow was at 54.35 pence at 4:30 p.m.

Interconnector (U.K.) Ltd., owner of a reversible pipeline between Britain and Belgium, reverted to U.K. imports last night, according to information on its website.
Source Link: businessweek.com
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Art Horn: Big Snow Storms are Weather, Not Climate: Updated by Piers Corbyn
Tuesday, February 8th 2011, 3:11 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Recently sometimes liberal, sometimes conservative Bill O’Reilly posed this question, “Why has southern New York turned into the Tundra?” Of course Bill was being funny when he asked that. Tundra is located in the Arctic, mountainous areas and Antarctica. It has very few trees, in many areas none and under its surface there is permafrost, the ground a few inches down is permanently frozen. Actually the Tundra has very little snowfall and is really a cold desert in many parts of the world with 6 inches or less of annual precipitation. So if you think the Tundra is covered in 10 feet of snow you would be wrong.

Self proclaimed climate expert Al Gore responded to Bills question saying “In fact, scientists have been warning for at least two decades that global warming could make snowstorms more severe.” He went on to say “A rise in global temperature can cause all kinds of havoc ranging from hotter dry spells to colder winters, along with increasingly violent storms, flooding, forest fires (from global warming?) and loss of endangered species.”

Funny how Gore never mentioned that global warming would cause more severe snow storms or colder winters in his 2006 move “An Inconvenient Truth.” Not once in the movie was there any indication that global warming would cause anything other than higher temperatures, melting ice, shorter and less cold winters and less snowfall. His answer to Bill is clearly an attempt to cover his tracks.

Updated below with comments by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: icecap.us
THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES
Here is the forecast: it could be hot, cold or in-between by Jonathan Wynne-Jones
Sunday, February 6th 2011, 9:14 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The Met Office has adopted a new cautious approach to its long-range seasonal forecasts by covering all eventualities.

First its promised "barbecue summer" turned out to be a washout, then it stopped publicising its three-month forecasts for fear of getting them wrong.

But now the Met Office has come up with a new way to avoid embarrassment – by covering all eventualities.

In a confidential guidance note issued to the Government in October, its forecasters said there was a roughly equal chance that this winter would be mild and wet, cold and dry, or somewhere in between.

According to the note, there was a 30 per cent chance that temperatures in November, December and January would be around average, a 30 per cent chance they would be above-average and a 40 per cent chance they would be below-average.
Source Link: telegraph.co.uk
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James Delingpole: How the BBC's Roger Harrabin was ensnared by his own tangled web
Wednesday, February 2nd 2011, 5:36 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentA few weeks ago, you may remember, in a post called How The Doomed Met Office Tried To Spin Its Way Out Of Trouble, I reported on some extraordinary shenanigans involving the Met Office, the BBC, the BBC’s High Priest of Gaian Worship and Climate Alarmism Roger Harrabin and the Coalition government. It was one of those stories where you found yourself wishing: “Someone’s going to come really badly out of this. Please God, let it be all of them.”

To recap, the story went like this: Roger Harrabin wrote an article claiming that far from being more useless than a dead octopus the Met Office was just misunderstood and misrepresented.

“The truth is it [The Met Office] did suspect we were in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in October. But we weren’t let in on the secret. The reason? The Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts because of the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009 – the summer that campers floated around in their tents.”
Source Link: blogs.telegraph.co.uk
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UK Government Was Concerned About Mixed Forecasts From Met Office
Wednesday, February 2nd 2011, 4:26 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
It seems that it isn’t only bloggers and newspaper journalists who understand the infamous temperature probability map that has done the rounds since this blog made a screenshot of it and published it.

This blog submitted a Freedom of Information request to the Cabinet Office to enquire if it issued any instructions or restrictions concerning the use of the ‘private’ Met Office forecast to the Government. The Cabinet Office states that it gave no such instructions to the Met Office. It also included the Met Office forecast that readers will now be familiar with.

But tacked onto the end of the FOI response, on page 8, were redacted copies of a couple of emails between the Cabinet Office’s Civil Contingencies Sectretariat (CCS) and the Met Office. One of those relates to the forecast information the National Grid was using – screenshot below.

Image Attachment
Source Link: autonomousmind.wordpress.com
THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES
Piers Corbyn: MUST SEE YOUTUBE: UKWinter 2010/2011 December & January Review
Tuesday, February 1st 2011, 2:53 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)


Click YouTube to see UKWinter 2010/2011 December & January Reviewed by Piers Corbyn - WeatherAction.com
Harrabin's Notes: What's the prognosis?
Tuesday, February 1st 2011, 1:15 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)


Click below for the latest report from Roger Harrabin concerning the Met Office UK winter forecast or see the above YouTube from Sir Paul McCartney - "My Brave Face" -

Updated below with article from Autonomous Mind
THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES
Andrew Orlowski: Death, grit and climate: Met Office drama unfolds
Monday, January 31st 2011, 1:42 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Mandarins and meteorologists form circular firing squad.

If a hit West End play can be made out of Bohr meeting Heisenberg, there must be some promising dramatic material in the blame-game now unravelling in Whitehall.

Airports, energy providers, local authorities and health trusts were caught short by record cold weather extremes this year, for the third winter running – raising questions about the preparedness of the national infrastructure, and the quality of the meteorological advice these agencies receive. And it's not an academic dispute: cold weather kills thousands of people each year, with UK citizens suffering one of the worst winter "excess" mortality rates in Europe. According to figures published by Office for National Statistics, there were 25,400 additional deaths in 2009/10 than in a comparable non-winter period.

The state largely relies on forecasts by the Met Office, a £170m branch of the Ministry of Defence. Until the Met Office stopped providing long-range weather forecasts – because they damaged the "brand", according to internal documents – nine of the last 10 winters had turned out to be warmer than the agency forecast.

Is the Met Office being used as a scapegoat for cash-strapped councils, as an excuse for cut-backs in essential infrastructure? That seems not to be the case, as the authorities cite Met Office advice, and climate change, as a primary factor in their planning.

Updated below from Autonomous Mind
Source Link: theregister.co.uk
THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES
John O'Sullivan: BBC and Met Office Caught in Ponzi Scam over Winter Forecast Fiasco
Sunday, January 30th 2011, 7:27 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Disclosed documents implicate two major British institutions in a scam over ‘secret’ forecast of ‘cold’ British winter. Was a senior BBC journalist also framed?

With a winter death toll in the hundreds newly released evidence from the Palace of Westminster under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) proves that the BBC and Met Office are implicated in a conspiracy of global warming lies about a ‘secret’ winter forecast. The original story was covered by Autonomous Minds blog and titled, ‘BBC spins that Met Office got winter right, just kept it secret from public.’

A report by a top BBC environment journalist, Roger Harrabin, implied that the UK's Coalition government might have blocked the so-called ‘secret cold winter’ forecast. But is there more to this story than meets the eye and have dark forces in high places conspired to frame the veteran journalist?

Circumstantial Evidence Points to Top Level Conspiracy
Source Link: johnosullivan.livejournal.com
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