Articles Tagged "UK Winter Forecast 2010/11"

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BREAKING: The Met Office Winter Forecast Lie Is Finally Nailed: Updated with comments by Piers Corbyn
Saturday, January 29th 2011, 5:41 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Update from TheGWPF: The British Government confirmed during a House of Lords debate on Thursday that it had received the Met Office's winter forecast on 25 October 2010:

Lord Lawson of Blaby: My Lords, can my noble friend inform the House of the statistical and scientific evidence for the Met Office's estimate that there was only a one in 20 chance of a severe winter in 2010-11, an estimate on which the airports relied?

Earl Attlee: My Lords, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State has asked Sir John Beddington to give him scientific advice on the likelihood of future severe winters. On 25 October 2010, the Met Office provided the Cabinet Office with an updated three-monthly forecast, which suggested a 40 per cent chance of cold conditions, a 30 per cent chance of near average conditions and a 30 per cent chance of mild conditions over northern Europe.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

With compliments to Katabasis whose FOI request has been dealt with more quickly than mine… The information in the FOI response he has received today and written up in a detailed blog post goes into much more detail than Bishop Hill’s release from the Quarmby audit team.

A look at the information makes clear there is nowhere left for the Met Office to hide. The Met Office has been caught ‘cold’ lying about its winter forecast in a disgraceful attempt to salvage its reputation. Its claim that it forecast the cold start to the winter lays in tatters thanks to an exchange of emails between the department and the Cabinet Office.

Updated below with MUST READ comments by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: autonomousmind.wordpress.com
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Doug L. Hoffman: That Wicked Weather
Thursday, January 27th 2011, 5:35 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
With massive floods in Australia and Brazil, and bitter winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere, climate change alarmists have been quick to blame the severe weather on global warming.

The fact that such weather is well within normal variation has not stopped the catastrophists from claiming vindication. No matter that those who study the Pacific and Atlantic decadal scale oscillations predicted a cold and snowy winter for Europe and North America, the recent blizzards are being offered up as “proof” that Earth's climate is changing for the worse. And what of the reports of widespread natural disaster from Rio, Brisbane and elsewhere? Even more global warming, of course. When it comes to wicked weather, the climate change cabal's misinformation machine is running at full tilt.

A wave of cold and snowy weather, reminiscent of the Little Ice Age, has gripped Europe and North America, grounding airplanes, trains and cars and causing dozens of deaths. Winter arrived particularly early for Europe, with November temperatures dropping significantly lower than previous lows for the month. On 28 November, Wales recorded their lowest-ever November temperature of −17.3 °C (1 °F) in Llysdinam, and Northern Ireland recorded their lowest ever November temperature of −9.5 °C (15 °F) in Lough Fea. The UK Met Office, which had predicted a mild winter, proclaimed the coldest December since records began in 1910.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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Dr. Benny Peiser: Parliamentary Committee Announces Inquiry Into Winter Transport Fiasco
Monday, January 24th 2011, 4:37 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The House of Commons Transport Select Committee has heeded the call by the Global Warming Policy Foundation for an inquiry into the winter transport fiasco.

The GWPF welcomes the decision by the Transport Committee. We anticipate that the most important questions we raised in our letter to the Transport Select Committee on 6 January, in particular those regarding contradictory provision of weather forecasts by the Met Office, will be thoroughly scrutinised so that similar events can be avoided in the future.

Transport Committee announces inquiry on the impact on transport of recent adverse weather conditions
Source Link: thegwpf.org/
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Met Office Did Not Issue 'Exceptionally Cold Winter' Warning, Says UK Government: Updated by Piers Corbyn
Saturday, January 22nd 2011, 3:11 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
With compliments to Bishop Hill. While many of us await a reply to FOI requests sent to the Cabinet Office and the Met Office, Bishop Hill wrote to the Quarmby audit team to see if they had actually received a copy of the Met Office’s cold-winter forecast.

The Quarmby team have responded to Bishop Hill and have helpfully provided a copy of the forecast, reproduced below. Fill your boots playing with the statistics…

Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11

This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change.

Updated below with comments by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: autonomousmind.wordpress.com
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Government vs Met Office forecast row heats up
Monday, January 17th 2011, 10:53 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The saga of the ‘private’ Met Office forecast to the Cabinet Office for early winter has taken a new twist.

Many people have submitted Freedom of Information requests concerning the Met Office forecast supplied to the Cabinet Office in October 2010, looking ahead to the winter, after the Met Office published temperature probability maps showing they believed the winter would be warmer than average. The Met Office, via Roger Harrabin, put out its side of the story just after New Year with Harrabin stating that:

In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter.

However, this claim seems overblown when compared with the Cabinet Office’s view of the forecast. The Cabinet Office Minister, Francis Maude, has responded to a Parliamentary question about the forecast with a written answer published on Friday. The question and answer read:

Chris Heaton-Harris: To ask the Minister for the Cabinet Office what account his Department took of the October 2010 Met Office forecast of a mild winter in preparations across Government for the winter of 2010.

Mr Maude: The Met Office provide the Government with regular updates throughout the year to inform short, medium and longer term planning. In late October, the Met Office advised that temperatures during November and December were likely to be average or colder. This information was shared with Departments as part of a wider review of winter preparedness.

‘…were likely to be average or colder.’ That in no way reflects the Harrabin claim that the Met Office predicted it was likely Britain would face ‘an extremely cold winter’.

The Freedom of Information responses to the public and the media are still pending. But the parliamentary answer shows the government and the Met Office are peddling different stories and that only the full release of the unredacted forecast will determine who is telling the truth. In the meantime, get comfy and reach for the popcorn while the rats scuffle in their sack.
Source Link: autonomousmind.wordpress.com
Reply to article: Roger Harrabin & The Met Office: Updated with comments by John O'Sullivan
Friday, January 14th 2011, 5:33 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
From Roger Harrabin, BBC Environment Analyst

Dear Dr Peiser,

Your recent postings on the BBC and the Met Office have been very misleading.

Your latest newsletter reported a brief email exchange between myself and your correspondent John O'Sullivan. He accurately quoted me on three issues: that I had been told by the Met Office PR that they had forecast an early cold winter to the Cabinet Office; that I have made an FoI request to obtain that forecast; that I noted the Quarmby report. These facts comprised our entire exchange.

Mr O'Sullivan then inaccurately said I hinted that "a major rift appears to have opened up between Met Office chief executive, John Hirst and Climate Minister (Chris) Huhne."

I did not hint or indeed mention anything of the sort. I reject his suggestion that the BBC is taking the side of the Met Office against the government, as alleged in the report.

Another recent posting on your site suggested that the BBC has launched an enquiry into the quality of Met Office forecasts because it is unhappy about the MO service. This is simply not true.


Updated below with comments by John O'Sullivan
Source Link: thegwpf.org
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Met Office/BBC Mystery Deepens
Thursday, January 13th 2011, 6:18 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
BBC – Met Office, Met Office – BBC. Sometimes it’s difficult to know which of the 58 weather forecasters who appear on TV screens around the country are Met Office employees or BBC ones. The 24 who appear on national TV are Met Office people and the rest who appear on regional BBC channels are BBC people. So, for the sake of clarity, Paul Hudson appears on BBC Look North (having previously worked for the Met Office) is a BBC employee. Clear? Good.

Hudson writes a BBC hosted blog and late this afternoon weighed in to the warmer than average/colder than average Met Office forecast fiasco with a very matter of fact post. It is such an interesting post it’s worthy of comment. After reading this analysis you could be forgiven for thinking the Met Office will probably wish Hudson had stayed out of this

There’s been much in the news over the last week or so, regarding the issue of whether or not the Met Office did forecast a cold winter, and if so was this communicated to the government. You can read one version of events in the Independent newspaper by clicking here.

OK, that’s fine. We know this part of the story backwards by now.
Source Link: autonomousmind.wordpress.com
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What is Roger Harrabin doing?
Wednesday, January 12th 2011, 4:36 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
That is a question that could be quite reasonably be asked by his boss and licence fee payers after events over the last couple of weeks.

While Roger Harrabin filed a piece for his ‘Harrabin’s Notes’ on Population Overload yesterday and a piece on Monday about MPs saying the government must be more green and appoint the Cabinet Office (yes, them again) to ensure the environment is considered in the government’s decision-making processes, there is a notable absence of BBC News pieces from Harrbin concerning the ongoing furore over the Met Office’s private weather forecast that was supplied to the government’s Cabinet Office.

It seems curious that a story as big as a contradictory weather forecast for what turned out to be the coldest December since national records began in 1910, was covered in the high profile news vehicle that is the Radio Times, but not on the Science & Environment pages of BBC News online.

Surely news pieces should be reported on BBC news sites. But this hasn’t been the case. Harrabin’s focus appears to have been less on reporting news stories for his employer and more on issuing what look like PR pieces to assist the Met Office in reputation management. Harrabin has said more to other journalists and bloggers about his Radio Times piece than he has to users of BBC News services.
Source Link: autonomousmind.wordpress.com
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John O'Sullivan: BBC Hits UK Govt with Freedom of Information Demand in Cold Winter Forecast Fiasco
Tuesday, January 11th 2011, 4:42 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The BBC serves Freedom of Information request (FOIA) on UK Government over weather forecast failures secrecy in worst winter for 100 years.

In an almighty battle to salvage credibility three British government institutions are embroiled in a new global warming scandal with the BBC mounting a legal challenge to force ministers to admit the truth. Sceptics ask: Is the UK government’s climate propaganda machine finally falling apart?

Last week the weather service caused a sensation by making the startling claim that it was gagged by government ministers from issuing a cold winter forecast. Instead, a milder than average prediction was made that has been resoundingly ridiculed in one of the worst winters in a century.

With the BBC appearing to take the side of the Met Office by seeking to force the government to give honest answers, untold harm will likely befall Prime Minister Cameron’s global warming policies on energy, taxation and the environment.

Rift between BBC, Met Office and UK Government Grows

Speculation in newspapers and the blogosphere has festered for the past week as Chris Huhne, minister in charge of the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) stubbornly remain silent. I contacted the BBC’s Environment Analyst Roger Harrabin, one of the world’s senior journalists on such matters to ascertain if the Beeb had a better handle on the story.
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Lawrence Solomon: What happens when WWF is in charge of the weather?
Monday, January 10th 2011, 4:05 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
What happens when the inmates run the insane asylum? This experiment is being run in the UK, where the ultra-green former head of the World Wildlife Fund UK and other global warming activists were put in charge of running the country’s Meteorological Office, the country’s weather department. The Met Office is now embroiled in national scandals — and it has become the likely subject of a Parliamentary Inquiry — because the true believers at the helm appear to have been playing around with the weather.

One scandal involves the UK Met’s reliance on models that predict global warming. Using this flawed research, the Met has been getting its forecasts spectacularly wrong, leading to turmoil when the government was subsequently ill-prepared to clear roads of snow. “Investment in more equipment may not be economic, given rarity of British snow,” stated one article in the Guardian, explaining a government-commissioned report that highlighted the silliness of preparing for weather conditions that won’t occur under global warming. “Are you happy to invest more in kit that may sit at the back of the depot and won’t be used?” the report’s author stated rhetorically.

The UK has now had three fierce winters in a row. In 2008, the UK experienced its coldest winter in 10 years after the Met predicted “a milder than average” winter. In 2009, the UK experienced the coldest winter in 30 years after the Met predicted that “the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue.” In 2010, the UK experienced the coldest winter on record, paralyzing the country’s transportation system and leading the chairman of parliament’s Transport Select committee to indicate that hearings would be occurring.
Source Link: fullcomment.nationalpost.com
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