Articles Tagged "Paul Homewood"

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JET STREAM SHIFT PAUL HOMEWOOD UK SUMMER FORECAST 2012 UK DROUGHT FORECAST 2012 MET OFFICE
Paul Homewood: Met Office’s Private Briefing Document For The Environment Agency
Tuesday, April 9th 2013, 3:27 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Here is part of a great blog from Paul Homewood concerning the Met Office’s Private Briefing Document For The Environment Agency....below is his section on the location of the Jet Stream, regular readers of Piers Corbyn would know the answer to this issue....

Following the wet summer in the UK last year, the Met Office provided the Environment Agency with a briefing document, giving an overview of the weather. This was discussed at the September Board Meeting of the Environment Agency, which Met Office officials attended.

As far as I know, this document, which I obtained through FOI, has never entered the public domain. It is brutally honest in admitting how little the Met’s scientists understand about what affects our climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather last year. This is in stark contrast to many of the hyped up claims, made in public statements in the recent past by, among others, the Met Office themselves.

The full document is reproduced below, but there are four particular areas I wish to focus on.
Source Link: notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
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PAUL HOMEWOOD A GRAPH TO DEBUNK AGW
A Graph to Debunk AGW: Paul Homewood: How GISS Have Changed The Temperature Record Since 2008
Friday, January 18th 2013, 1:51 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment

Alterations to temperature record 1881-2008

I ran a post yesterday, showing how the latest version of GISSTEMP had changed from using Hadley/Reynolds to ERSST for ocean temperatures, with the result that about 0.03C had been added to recent warming.

However, this is not the only change they have made to the historical temperature record in recent years. Climate4You, fortunately, archived the GISS data in May 2008. Comparing this dataset with today’s version, we can see that about 0.10C of warming, or more, has been added to temperatures in the last decade, compared to data up to about 1950.

It must be remembered that these are only changes made by GISS since 2008. As I pointed out, prior to 2008, other adjustments of about 0.03C had already been added to the numbers originally declared just a few years earlier. These adjustments must, therefore, also be added on to the adjustments made since.

An adjustment of 0.10C or so may not seem a lot, but the latest GISS anomaly, against the baseline of 1951-80, is 0.44C. These adjustments make up about a quarter of this figure.

I have also done some digging on the original numbers GISS declared for 1998, which seem much different to what they now show. News on this later.
Source Link: notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
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PAUL HOMEWOOD WORLD TEMPERATURES REPLY TO ARTICLE MET OFFICE
Reply to article: Paul Homewood: Science Or Propaganda?
Tuesday, October 16th 2012, 6:19 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
The UK Met Office display the above graph prominently on their website. It is the temperature plot, based on the long running CET (Central England Temperature series).

The message is clear. Temperatures suddenly started climbing rapidly around 1980, a classic hockey stick.

If you look closely, you will notice that the graph begins just before 1780. Yet the CET series actually began in 1659, so why did not the Met show the full graph?

I have used exactly the same data, which is available on the Met Office website here, to produce the graph below for the full period.
Source Link: notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
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BERKELEY EARTH SURFACE TEMPERATURE (BEST) PROJECT PAUL HOMEWOOD
Paul Homewood: Muller’s Alabama Temperatures Hopelessly Inaccurate
Wednesday, August 8th 2012, 5:04 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
It is nearly a year since Professor Muller published his BEST global temperature figures, which made so many headlines at the time. WUWT has neatly summarised some of the fundamental errors Muller made, so I won’t revisit old ground. However the Sunshine Hours blog has highlighted some more problems. I would highly recommending his post on this full as he has done a lot of work collating the data. You can read it here.

In essence though it seems that there are some huge discrepancies between the BEST figures and the official NCDC ones for parts of the USA. Compare these two graphs.

Image Attachment

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/alabama
Figure 1:
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PAUL HOMEWOOD MET OFFICE UK DROUGHT FORECAST 2012 UK FORECAST MAY 2012
Paul Homewood: More on the wettest April in 100 years in the UK (guest post at WUWT)
Saturday, May 5th 2012, 7:03 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment.....Forecast for May/June/July

The Met Office have also recently issued their 3 month outlook for May to July. For temperatures, they have this to say.

SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: The balance of probability, both for May and the period May-June-July 2012, favours UK-averaged temperatures above the 1971-2000 climate mean, but in line with those observed over the last ten years. However, predictability for both periods tends to be low, with current forecasts indicating greater-than-average uncertainty in UK weather patterns as early as the beginning of May. May is also a month where there can still be large swings in temperature depending on the prevailing wind direction and so cold spells are still possible despite the most likely scenario being for above-normal temperatures. The probability that the UK-mean temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 45% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/d/A3-layout-temp-MMJ.pdf
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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PAUL HOMEWOOD WORLD TEMPERATURES
Paul Homewood: Extreme climate in 1971
Thursday, August 4th 2011, 7:05 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
We are often told that our weather these days is more extreme than in the past because of "climate change". Every extreme weather event is used to belabour this point.

I therefore decided to put together a history of similar events from 1971 to give some perspective. I picked 1971 purely at random simply because it was 40 years ago. I have attached my findings. Each event is fully referenced and I have satisfied myself that each reference is genuine.

I have deliberately made no attempt to draw comparisons between 1971 and 2010/11, but simply want others to see the facts for themselves so that they can make their own conclusions.

Many thanks

Paul Homewood
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