Articles Tagged "Will Alexander"

A puzzling issue in the whole climate change affair is why did climate change scientists on both sides of the fence deliberately ignore the role of variations in received solar energy on the Earth's climate? The oscillating consequences have been observed and studied for more than 100 years, yet the IPCC reports continue to maintain that the Earth's climate is a steady-state phenomenon and that the consequences of variations in solar activity are far less than the influence of greenhouse gas emissions for which there is no believable evidence at all.

My recent memos were written in easy to read layman's language. Now the time has come to dig a little deeper.

The attached report was produced by my colleague David Bredenkamp. He is an experienced hydro-geologist. You may have difficulty in understanding his contribution if you are not technically minded. In this case I suggest that you read the abstract and then glance through the 15 figures in his report. Each and every one of them demonstrates a very clear oscillating behaviour. How on earth is it possible that scientists in the field of climate change can maintain that the Earth's climate is a steady-state phenomenon when all the evidence is to the contrary?

Until now, the difficulty was in establishing the causal linkage between climatic variations and variations in received solar energy. In the attached report David Bredenkamp solves the problem. All that I ask is that you read the abstract of his report and then compare it with the extracts from Chapter 2 of the IPCC’s assessment report that I quoted in an earlier memo then draw your own conclusions.

I realise that at this stage the views of five of us acting independently and without any research funding, may have little impact but here's another analogy. The world has come to the edge of a precipice on this climate change issue. One step further and it will tumble down the cliff. It will be forced to revise its position or suffer the consequences. Hopefully our memos will assist it to retreat with dignity.

Email 06/11

My climate prediction model

The whole climate change issue has reached a critical stage. The next conference takes place in Durban at the end of this year. It has now become clear that the developing countries led by China, India, Brazil and South Africa will not be prepared to enter into binding international agreements to limit their greenhouse gas emissions in the foreseeable future. This will leave the developed nations that have already imposed restrictions out in the cold.

The developed nations are in a minority at UNFCCC’s annual conferences but until now they have had the greatest influence on the discussions. This has changed dramatically. It is clear that the principal developing nations will now have a major role to play.

There is another equally important issue. The producers of the key chapters of the IPCC’s assessment report have deliberately downplayed the critical role of regular periodic variations in received solar energy on global climate and its consequences

It has now become obvious that the major scientific bodies and research institutes in the developed nations were aware of these shortcomings and took steps to suppress the contrarian views and those who propagated them. The policy of the Royal Society and the BBC are examples. I have personal experience of these tactics.

The key event will be in the resumption of the stalled Bonn discussions next month after which South Africa and probably other developing nations will publish their positions.

Email 05/11

Global conflicts ahead

Wednesday 3 August 2011

Dear all,

The developed nations of the world especially the EU, UK, Australia and to a lesser extent the USA have imposed costly restrictive measures on their own citizens, industries and other activities. The purpose is to limit the discharges of carbon dioxide and other undesirable gases into the atmosphere that create a global warming effect. This in turn will have a whole range of undesirable environmental, humanitarian and hydrological consequences.

The naive assumption of these nations is that the rest of the world will also impose these measures otherwise the restrictions imposed on their own citizens will be meaningless.

The developed nations further assumed that they could encourage or force the developing nations to follow their example. It has now become clear that this is unlikely to happen.

Consider the domestic consequences that these developed nations now face.

Quite apart from this issue, together with my professional colleagues, staff and students we have demonstrated that the present climate change theory is fundamentally in error. We go further. As demonstrated in the next memo we have developed a simple regional climate prediction model that has already been verified by recent widespread droughts.

Tuesday 2 August 2011

Email 04/11

Mission accomplished

Dear all,

I started compiling this set of memos more than a week ago. The title of this memo was intended to refer to my successful climate prediction model. Then yesterday, out of the blue, came an article in Business Day referring to South Africa's policy at the forthcoming UNFCCC conference in Durban at the end of this year. I expanded my memo to include comments on this very important change of position by South Africa which is no doubt also the position of other African nations (more than 50 of them), let alone the other major developing nations including China, India and Brazil.

I have also included a few notes on the IPCC's position regarding the influence of solar activity on global climate. This was another pathetic attempt to convince the world that human activities were the sole cause of all observed climatic anomalies.

Now it is the turn of the developed nations to be on the defensive. Consider for a moment the huge expenditure on climate change research in the past few years. Consider also the embarrassing position of the nations that have already imposed restrictions. How are they going to explain these measures to their own citizens when the majority of the nations of the world will refuse to impose them on their citizens? It must be very obvious that these restrictions by the developed nations can have no influence at all on global climate, never mind our own studies that show that these measures would be fruitless in any case.

Dear all,

In a television interview three days ago, our Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs whose department will be involved in the organisation of the UNFCCC conference in Durban at the end of this year, expressed her disappointment at the lack of an international agreement on the climate change issue. This made it unlikely that the Durban conference will achieve its objective.

Unlike the Copenhagen conference two years ago, we are unlikely to see the heads of state arriving in Durban with pens in their hands, ready to sign a binding agreement on the control of greenhouse gas emissions. Copenhagen failed miserably. The Durban discussions might not even get off the ground.

To make matters worse twelve days ago realising that Durban is likely to fail the Western nations requested the UN Security Council to become involved in the climate change issue. The developing nations objected and the request failed. The representative of the US described their objections as being ‘pathetic’. This is hardly the way to win friends and influence people, especially when the US has refused to enter into any agreements in the past. It was the US that nearly wrecked the Bali conference three years ago.

My own role has been that of a lone voice from the southern end of the African continent. I have been distributing my memos via the Internet since 2002. Now at last I've reached the point where I can demonstrate the fundamental errors in climate change science with a high degree of assurance. Details are provided in my five memos, the last three of which will be distributed during the next 10 days.

Dear all,

Early in June I produced Memo 02/11 that I titled Beware of False Prophecies. I compared the prophecy of Nongqawse that led to the near annihilation of the Xhosa nation in 1856/57 with current climate alarmism that, like the historical prophecies, is an instrument of mass deception.

I waited for the outcome of the international discussions at Bonn that were to be a prelude to the UNFCCC conference scheduled to be held in Durban starting at the end of November. However, the Bonn discussions stalled and are to be continued in September. This in turn delayed the production of South Africa's white paper on climate change and probably the policy documents of other nations as well.

It is now very clear that the whole climate change issue at international level is in complete disarray. World scientists in this field are now at the crossroads. In this memo I demonstrate the fundamental impossibility of process theory as developed by climate change believers to address the real world problems associated with natural climate variability let alone the postulated consequences of global warming.

I provide a very brief summary of the well-established alternative route based on hydro-climatological time series data analyses and the important solar linkage. Our simulation models can accommodate any climatic anomalies from whatever cause. The only requirement is that they be expressed numerically.

It was Richard Nixon who said that if you have got them by their sensitive parts their hearts and minds will follow. Now, after all these years and all those IPCC’s assessment reports, climate change scientists find themselves in this position. How will they react?

Our planet has just experienced global climatic extremes from bitter cold conditions in parts of the northern hemisphere immediately followed by extreme floods stretching from Australia in the east through to Brazil in the west. The last time that floods of this magnitude occurred was in 1974 when they were even more severe.

How is it possible that these extreme, global climatic conditions were not predicted by all those well-funded international institutions with their complex global climate computer models, not even days before they occurred?

They will respond by saying that this was extreme weather not climate. But if this extreme weather was exceeded by similar conditions in 1974 how can it be claimed that global temperatures have increased dramatically and that the world's climate has reacted accordingly? Then they claim that climate is average weather. If this is so then how do they explain that the weather extremes have not increased during the past 40 years but global climate has worsened?

Regards,

Will.

CLICK to download Memo Global floods by Will Alexander, SA UN Scientist

Do you believe in miracles? I experienced one while writing the attached memo. It was the culmination of decades of sustained effort with many obstacles along the road.

[I had difficulty in responding to all the emails that I received during recent months. If I have not responded to your email, please send me a copy. All my received emails from the end of December through to 11 July were accidentally deleted.]

Extract.....I had no sooner distributed this memo than I received another request. Would I please address a committee of decision-makers on the climate change issue? They had already heard the views of the other side.

How could I refuse? In my enthusiasm I decided that this time I would go for their throats. The organisers became worried and asked me to cool it. I told them that it was like asking me to kill a snake with a toothbrush.

Nevertheless, I settled down. Like the generals on both sides during WW II, I calmly planned my offensive. It had to be short and hold the attention of the audience. This in turn required simple, understandable illustrations and photographs. Fortunately I have many to choose from.



CLICK to read Climate change. The end of the road? by Will Alexander

Soon after I distributed my RIP memo I received a request from Cape Town where the climate changers are very active. I was asked to comment on the position in the Western Cape in the light of the international developments.

I agreed because I was directly involved in a serious difference with the other side on the Western Cape issue several years ago.

I have written many reports and published papers together with my colleagues. They were all based on our own studies. Now for the first time I could substantiate them by referring to the rising tide of worldwide scepticism on virtually every aspect of climate change theory.

I was in the process of writing the report when the Royal Society's press release was published on the Internet. This is the death knell for climate change science. There is no way that it can recover.

This is a copy of my report Climate change in the Western Cape. Fact or fiction? -PDF File

More fraud

Wednesday 19 May 2010

Email 12/10

CLIMATE CHANGE - RIP

The attached memo 12/10 and its illustrations are an appropriate ending to my series of memos during the past eight years. Feel free to pass this on to anybody who has an interest.

Warning:

The photographs are not suitable for study by sensitive Western viewers. Perhaps they will understand why increasing the welfare of these people should be humanity’s principal objective – not all those millions of dollars and hundreds of hours spent on fruitless research efforts related to climate change.


Regards,

Will

Click PDF file to download latest and maybe the last report from Will Alexander