A breakthrough in long range forecasting?

[ceyda]

I just came across this interesting article at Paul hudson's blog at the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2 ... d-to.shtml

new piece of research relating to this winters severe cold across much of Europe, and a possible link to the very low solar activity we have been experiencing.

Thought Steven and Piers may find this interesting.

[Climate Realist]

Yes, it sounds a lot like Piers SWT, which is far more accurate than the Met Office. Although he has got the middle and end of March very wrong, we are supposed to be in the middle of an Arctic snap now, mid- end March. As it is, mild spring weather continues.

[Stephen Wilde]

Yes, it is very similar to that which I have been proposing in recent articles here. I used it in my successful winter 2009/2010 seasonal forecast issued in August last year.

[Climate Realist]

It actually looks as though some colder weather is coming to parts of the UK, So Piers was right again. Warm start to spring then a cold snap to kill the new growth, although the warm period lasted longer and the cold snap started later than Piers forecast. There really is something to his SWT and he seems to be getting better and better. No wonder a lot of farmers buy his forecasts.

[Ravenna]

Is there a published science paper supporting the claim of a "breakthrough?

[Mike Davis]

Ravenna are you looking for this:
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyor ... tivity.pdf
QBO here:
http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm
From my favorite disinformation site you can sift through the information here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation
It is OK for a Quiki search!