Prospects for the next two weeks (from 16/10/08)

[Stephen Wilde]

This is a bit speculative so bear with me.

Currently we are about average temperature in the UK. Although we had a south westerly flow which in the past few years would have been very warm because of persistence, it has proved to be very transitory with the source cut off within a few days of the flow being established.

Now we have considerable cold developing in Greenland and the 20C isotherm in the Atlantic moving well South with the 0C isotherm closing the gap between Greenland and Norway:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn125.html

The question is whether a south westerly air flow will re establish and keep us warm or whether a north or north easterly will take over by the end of this week. See the anticipated run from weather underground here:

http://www.wunderground.com./modelmaps/ ... &domain=EU

That source tends to indicate a north westerly run for a week or so turning north easterly later which would give us a colder than average second half of November. This source changes by the day so don't shoot me if it diverges from today's projections.

I don't make personal predictions having been wrong so often in the past but generally the third party indicators are shaping up to fit the colder than average winter scenario which I suggested on another thread.

Having directed readers to the relevant sources let's see how it goes for the next 10 days or so.

[Questioning_Climate]

The BBC forecast colder conditions for the end of the week, so maybe the cold is on the way. However, they use the Met Office as their source so it is just as likely to swing the other way

Time will tell.

[Co2sceptic]

I have to say Piers Corbyn normaly has the theme of the month about right, so lets see if his remaining 2 weeks pan out using his free download.

http://co2sceptics.com/attachments/ftp/ ... _Nov08.pdf

[Co2sceptic]

From the WeatherAction pdf down load the NEXT major storm is 25/28th, last time he was 2 days off track, so we can then pan this date out to 23/30th. So will the UK have another deluge and high risk of tidal surge, we will have to look at this period when and if it happens.

The trouble is with forecasts of this nature it does look like gypsy fortune telling, unless you know what to look for. High winds are the theme, so put this forecast in another way, will the UK have very high winds in that period? Or do we normally have high winds in November anyway, if we do, can you make a guess as to when in November they take place?

If you were to start the month and take on Piers and try to map out when we were to have high winds, I suspect Piers would win most of the time, so is he a gypsy fortune teller or just lucky or has he a way to calculate such an event.

What we see when he fails is a "Told You So" you cant do it, and when he gets it right, "He Was Lucky", poor old Piers, it's heads you win and tails he loses each time.

And why does he not just tell us all how it's done then, when you invent something you sell it to the highest bidder, when you make a scientific discovery you apply for a grant. When you invent a scientific discovery in times of "Man Made Climate Change" you get nothing.........unless you want to make a study as to how much a cow has to fart to change the climate, you get big bucks for that, if only Piers could forecast from a cows backside, he would be very rich indeed.

[Stephen Wilde]

We usually have both high winds and cold spells in November so any prediction of either is likely to be right.

As for timing we usually get rapid alternations of warmer than average and colder than average anyway so it is difficult to be more than a couple of days adrift whatever one predicts.

Add to that the way it is easy with hindsight to shoe horn any exceptional event in even a very small locality into a prediction of something slightly different and there you have it. The storminess that was supposed to produce the first surge possibility was by no means unusual but a couple of areas did receive significant weather. Now if he had specifically predicted those events in their locations rather than issuing a general severe weather warning that would have been of interest.

What happened to that 'dartboard low' with a central pressure of 950mb ?

And no 'dive' into the North Sea.

Nor was there much rebuild of high pressure and fog in the days that followed.

Three tidal surge possibilities were predicted. Two have gone by unsuccessfully but may have alarmed many on the basis of the 70% probability for the first. People on the east coast are hypersensitive on the issue since 1953. We await the third.

It's actually heads he wins and tails you lose every time. Or, more likely, over time anyone who attempts to predict weather beyond 3 to 5 days evens out to zero value for the whole process.

Now here we are on the 18th with another 'dartboard low' supposed to 'dive' into the North Sea and Denmark with another risk of storm surge and severe N W gales in Scotland but nothing out of the ordinary at present although a normal low pressure system is likely to move tthrough to Scandinavia shortly.

Generally the systems have been far weaker than predicted and more like the so called 'standard meteorology' which he refers to.

It is likely to get colder towards the weekend as predicted but is that a knowing prediction or just chance after the previous failures ?

[Piers Corbyn]

Firstly I suggest anyone who wants to examine our forecasts looks at actual forecasts rather than a media or concocted versions from bloggers. Because of the Dramatic changes and extreme events we predicted this November's forecast was circulated free on 10th Nov ( http://co2sceptics.com/attachments/ftp/ ... _Nov08.pdf )
For comments we issued on 14th Nov see http://co2sceptics.com/news.php?id=2084

The tendency for Northerly winds - strong at times - especially later in the month was predicted (along with most of the detail in the 30 day ahead forecast) 10 months ago. The tendency for more heavy rain, local floods and North winds and the risk of North sea storm type surges (although not always with the full / New moons to enhance) remains at various times this month.
The cold snowy (espec N /NE) period coming (21, 22...) was forecast to the day.

When the month is over I suggest look at the last 9 or 99 past Novembers (including eg westerly, southerly, Indian-summery, mild-wet, cold-dry etc) and along with this year find which one(s) best matches the forecast IN DETAIL. That should be enough to sort out the "Oh anyone can forecast that" brigade who I have noticed are people who cannot forecast "that" and never rise to a challenge.

The interesting thing about the 'Red Warning' forecast period 'around 12-14th' (see comment link above) was that although there was not a very deep Low dive-crossing Britain {NB It was NOT stated it would be 950mb but that it 'could be as low as 950mb) the strongest turbulent winds came early (Wembley stadium damage on 10th) yet three significant late tropical storm developments all occurred on 13th. Two of these (tropical Atlantic and west North tropical pacific) were explicitly predicted and in the correct time periods by WeatherAction (see http://www.lowefo.com - global button) and the third (Bay of Bengal) was an added extra in a region we do not regularly consider. There was nevertheless an East coast flood Watch on 13th (Peterhead to Berwick) and loads of rain and many flood Warnings and Watches around then confirming the forecast. Indeed most details in that forecast window were confirmed apart from the details of the deepest low depth / track.

The timing of the extreme turbulence 10th rather 12-14th in Britain is interesting and is being investigated and may be connected to the transition to the new solar cycle (24) or it might be just noise (see forecast for timing uncertainties). Note normally timings are better (see October comments in the Nov forecast pdf). It is clearly not a simple matter here because the tropical strorm events were significnt and bang on time, not early.

No-one who has independently objectively and honestly examined WeatherAction Solar Weather Technique long range forecasts says anything other than that they are significantly skilled (see forecast for peer-reviewed ref).

People who have something to say about WeatherAction forecasts come in 4 groups:

1. Bookies and gamblers. William Hill closed my weather account betting (Fair odds advised to William Hill by Met office) with them after 12 years 1988 to 2000 in which time I won about £20,000 from over 3000 weather bets of typically £20 or £30 each. No-one has agreed to take on any of my climate change bet challenges announced at the start of 2007 and 2008. Their actions speak

2. People who live and die by the weather and buy our forecasts again and again (see farmer 'S' below).

3. Standard meteorologists some of whom may feel distressed that standard meteorology cannot reach the parts that WeatherAction's Solar Weather Technique can. {NB many standard professional meteorologists are very impressed and supportive).

4. Green fundamentalists who get very distressed when WeatherAction forecasts extreme events because they cannot then claim that they are caused by man's CO2 or sins.

Fair comment is welcome but groups 3 and 4 tend to trawl through forecasts looking for the parts that have gone wrong - or worse still concoct more extreme versions of them and then denounce the falsified forecasts (eg Paul Simons of The Times, the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) and various bloggers).
In any WeatherAction monthly forecast there are normally 10 weather periods and at least 10 or 20 statements in each period as well as other statements in the forecast so there will be at least 200 statements - most of which have a low probability of being right by chance - to examine per forecast. As we explain some of them will be wrong. We give confidence estimates for each time window from A(85%) to C(65%) - meaning 15% to 35% chance of being essentially wrong. Some of our users say the forecasts are better than the comfidence estimates suggest.
Farmer 'S' says: "...Every farmer needs WeatherAction forecasts. They might think they don't but they do..... They are a guide not gospel and you will find you are lost without them. There is no-one else in the world who can do it." (see below)

Notes on what ('S' - who will talk to other farmers) - a long standing farmer WeatherAction customer - said - and which was given to a meeting of North Devon Grassland society (farmers) in Barnstaple on 15th Oct

S: "I have been with WeatherAction for ten years. Every farmer needs WeatherAction forecasts. They might think they don't but they do. There are many practical examples of how I have saved money by applying WeatherAction forecasts:

Selling Corn (Wheat) this year. Piers' forecast made it clear that the rain to come meant we had to harvest early or the potential milling wheat would be devalued into feed wheat.

Hay: I could see from the forecast it was going to be tough. I have saved a lot on hay because of Piers' forecasts. I got a second cut by careful timing

Fertiliser: Dry / Wet forecasts makes it clear if you need to buy and use

Maize. The frosts forecast meant it should be planted late. Those who planted early lost out.

Dairy: The cold spring forecast means that grass would be late so it would be worth spending on fertiliser.

Planning. Use forecasters to book contractors and avoid hiring labour that has to stand idle because of adverse weather.

BUY the forecasts for two years. They are a guide not gospel and you will find you are lost without them. There is no-one else in the world who can do it.
Thanks" - 'S'.

Piers Corbyn

[Stephen Wilde]

Thank you Piers, that is very helpful.

I wonder whether simpler predictions would be less of a hostage to fortune for you ?

So much detail is included that it is very difficult to do a meaningful analysis after the event because there are many bits right and many bits wrong so that the balance between the two becomes a matter of judgement or interpretation rather than demonstrable fact.

Clearly a prediction of a cold damp spell or a warm dry spell around a particular few weeks in a specific season is of great value to a farmer but once one tries to pin down the detail it is more likely to go awry despite the value of the general prediction.

Can I find the predictions of 10 months ago anywhere ?

[ceyda]

Indeed: gypsy fortune telling done well, is exactly thus. Throw in enough stuff - something is bound to pan out, or at least seem later that it was 'right'. Mr. Corbyn has done exactly that and nothing at all more. Good, good!

That American baseball player, Yogi Berra, said it well enoug: Predictions are hard. Especially when they are about the future.'

The more things change....

I think Corbyn is on to something:

See link: http://co2sceptics.com/news.php?id=452

Excerpt:

(ii) This 'Lockwood study’ which shows that over the last twenty years something which is NOT solar activity in the normal effective sense cannot explain temperature changes - which could normally be explained by properly assessed Solar activity effects in the past. This convenient disposal of observed physics is intended to leave ‘only Man’s CO2’ as the possible cause of recent and/or future climate change despite the fact hat the CO2 driver theory explains nothing in the past and can predict nothing.

“The absurdity of the Lockwood paper becomes clear when you notice he talks about solar activity which under all normal definitions is about charged particles and magnetic fields but he does NOT talk about how these particles get to the Earth’s atmosphere. This is like having a theory that traffic jams in Birmingham are made worse by cars coming from London and testing it by watching changes in flow of all the cars leaving London without considering if they would actually reach Birmingham - by coming up the M1 or whatever.

“The ability of solar charged particles to reach and influence the Earth’s weather and climate depends on them actually getting here - far enough into the atmosphere to do something. Their effectiveness therefore depends on firstly how many reach the outer parts of the Earth’s magnetic filed and make shock waves in it. This is measured by Geomagnetic activity NOT primarily by counting sunspots or cosmic rays or radiation etc. Then this geomagnetic activity measure must be multiplied by a factor which is bigger or smaller when the Sun and Earth magnetic linkage is stronger or weaker.

“If things are averaged over periods longer than the magnetic cycle of the Sun then the linkage factor is smoothed out hence the excellent correlation observed over centuries between geomagnetic activity averaged over magnetic cycles of the Sun (or longer) and world temperatures averaged over the same periods. CO2 over the last century however does not track the ups and downs of the temperature which moves with geomagnetic activity smoothed over successive ‘22yr’ solar magnetic cycles.

“Attempts to test influences of solar activity on Earth in detail shorter than 22 years without considering the magnetic links prove nothing. This however is what Prof Lockwood does. Obviously since temperatures driven by solar activity follow a 22yr cycle and the measures of solar activity used by Prof Lockwood follow an 11year cycle they must move in opposite directions half the time. Professor Lockwood’s ‘finding’ of a period of ‘oppositely directed trends’ is just one such period. In fact Lockwood’s finding confirms the general hypothesis of the solar charged particle based theory! The theories he actually tests are something else - involving only 11yr cycles - and amount to ‘straw men’ to be knocked down. The cosmic ray theory is one of these. Although its originators did excellent experiemnts which showed that charged particles do have weather and climate effects extra solar cosmic rays as such have no significant weather or climate impact.

and then see link: http://co2sceptics.com/news.php?id=2037

I await the chance to ignore your sarcastic invective and rude response.

[Piers Corbyn]

Further to Stephen Wilde's question.
Yes, thanks. I will supply the ten month ahead November forecast - which is very similar in general look and most but not all detail to the 30day and also the 45day ahead one - to any enquirer who emails me: piers@weatheraction.com .

On The form of WeatherAction's Solar Weather Technique forecasts:
The point that of course if we only announced our most extreme highest confidence forecasts there would be less for doubters to trawl over is true. For example can anyone honestly argue with:
- WeatherAction 10/11 hit rate for floods in Britain in summer 2007
- 'Astounding' success in major storm events for British Isles Nov & early Dec 2007
- Similar success rate on floods in summer 2008 to that in 2007
- Succes rate of 49/56 extreme events around the world in trials March to Sept 2008.
These are not 'cherry picked' reports but ALL forecasts of events are considered in the specified categories and seasons/periods. All reports available via http://www.lowefo.com (global button) or email request to me.

The churlish who have their own problems and beliefs will stare at the list above in denial. However we are not in business to placate them anymore than Thomas Edison sought to placate the candle-stick-makers when he developed the light bulb.

Our first forecasts - weather bets 1988 onwards - were mainly only for extremes (gales and heavy rain) but users - especially farmers - want all the long range detail they can get, so we provide it.
Now we make it clear that each weather period is the 'MOST LIKELY Detailed weather' and therefore 'not gospel' as farmer 'S' says. Nevertheless along with the 'Essential weather developments' on page 1 and the graph section on page 5 of each 30day ahead forecast (and various parts of the many months ahead forecasts) there is enough there to make vital planting, spraying & harvesting etc decisions which will make money.
It is also true that a farmer or festival organiser wont care if the low that brought the rain was a 'dartboard', complex, floppy, droopy or credit-crunch shaped. These scenarios are put in for the record and research purposes and to help intelligent debate. Intelligent debate has been had in private and at our monthly press events but when it comes to certain 'Forums' ('Two Community' for example) such has been in short supply and some comments I have received by Email are best referred to medical doctors.

I repeat that no-one who has independently objectively and honestly examined WeatherAction Solar Weather Technique long range forecasts says anything other than that they are significantly skilled (see forecast for peer-reviewed ref). WeatherAction's Long range weather forecasting is fact and the doubters need to get over it.

For information our next monthly Press conference is on Friday 28th November 12noon, email piers@weatheraction.com for deatils.

On current weather (re around18/19 Nov period) you will have noticed almost 1 inch of rain in places on 17th and the strong and gusty winds in Scotland on 19th. Weather Action's long range sketch map for around 18/19 Nov and the Met office 24hr forecast map for noon on 20th Nov are attached/available. The similarity is very nice and means that the North sea storm surge set up we warned of around these periods is upon us. However at this time the lunar tides are neap so the risk of actual coastal breeches is low.

Piers Corbyn piers@weatheraction.com

[Piers Corbyn]

Re betting records with William Hill.
Our highly skilled success rate and winnings were reported on the BBC TV QED programme July 4th 1996 about me and WeatherAction.

Of course the point of betting is that what is being tested is decided in advance.
'Assessing' by listing deviations from forecast after the events is a political game. A proper set of forecast statements, or sepcific agreed matters have to be examined.

One such question we often get asked - especially by journalists is when will it snow or when will the worst cold spell be.
Forecast users have noted this month that our statements about snow and sleet have been generally good.
For cold spells look at our forecast graph - the tool favoured most by farmers - and you will see the most important and logest cold spell for Britain & ireland up to this date in November was forecast to be 21st, 22nd & 23rd with 24th becoming milder. That is what happened including the snow and its N & NE distribution - so correct timing for the cold spell and snow distribution was achieved.

If we had placed bets with william Hill in the past this aspect would have been expressed in bet offers something like:
"It will snow at (some agreed sites in Scotalnd & NE England in the period 21-23 Nov"
"Weekend average temps at (Birmimgham was a favourite) will be lower over weekend of 22-23 than 15-16, 7-8 and 1-2
Fair odds say 3/1 against because there is a general cooling through the month anyway (if not it would be 4/1 against)
People who make banal comments like 'Oh yes it gets cold in November' should admit that our forecasts are much more detailed than that.
It should be noted that when William Hills set the odds they first took fair odds recomendations from Met Office and then shortened them by their standard 25% (so a fair odd of 4/1 would be offered to us as 3/1; for long odds if we put forwrad fair odds of 30/1 (eg the wettest day will be...) they would rarely go longer than 10/1). We still won loads.

If anyone cares to make a forecast statement about weather events in (eg) December - preferably extremes and periods of time - perhaps they could state them and the odds they are offering for bets against.
We will make some such forecast statements at our WeatherAction press conference on Friday 28 Nov.
Cheers Piers