Floods in Cumbria

[sense]

The water still has not gone but the floods in cumbria are allready being blamed on climate change and im expecting to here alot about it over the coming days.

So is man made climate change really to blame? As I live locally what can I say to people who tell me about all this global warming causing these floods?

They really have been as bad as the press is making out though.

[Stephen Wilde]

The heavy rains were due to a very common weather setup whereby warm unstable and humid air was forced up over the Cumbrian hills and the humidity was released as rain. Look for 'orographic rainfall' for a fuller description. I think Cumbria boasts the wettest place in Britain for that very reason.

It was unusual for the situation to remain set for so long but that cannot be put down to human caused climate change. The area affected was very small. Most of the UK was warm and dry if windy.

[Mike Davis]

Good PR to support whatever position you want to support depending on how you describe the event. Having observed weather events for a day or two I agree with Stephen and throw in the issue that that is weather. It seems to do what it wants to do and there are to many variables to pin down all the chain of events leading up to this outcome. It is easy to say this type of weather event has happened before and will surely happen again somewhere and some day without the aid of AGW!

[Co2sceptic]

As you would have seen in my tags for "North Sea Storm Surge", Piers gave a time frame that was for an extream event, however his chosen forecast to fit in with, what he calls, "lookback", did not work as planned. I know you can be very sceptical about such things and how they work, or not, but I took time out to put up this event in that time frame, the result is history, but the question will remain, has Piers got something or not.

I think he has, and he will have a repeat run at the end of December.

This is his recent post on what took place

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id ... nkbox=true

[Mike Davis]

I do not doubt that Piers has a method that works better than what MET uses or even what NOAA uses over here. The ability to see patterns and the possible effects is helpful for those who will be affected. However this may not have been as extreme as was billed or claimed by those who wanted to promote global warming. Piers is a promoter and should be able to "Beat" his own drum even if he has fallen into the path followed by the "Alarmists' of overhype the event.

[Piers Corbyn]

The claim by politicians & GlobalWarmers that this is a one in a thousand year event and somehow therefore evidence of CO2 driven Global warming / Climate Change are utter nonsense.

Firstly of course their silly relationship: CO2 drives Global Warming and more warming leads to extreme events breaks down because the world has been cooling for at least 7 years (by any measure even the CRU dodgy figures which underestimate the cooling). Since it is cooling there is no warming to drive this or any extreme event.

Perhaps they argue warming 10 years ago has suddenly last week been remembered by the fronts over Cumbria which therefore decided to stay deluging for longer than normal!

They might suggest a direct CO2 link - although there is no evidence of such for any extremes (see http://www.weatheraction.com/displayart ... p?a=74&c=1 and links therein)

To make the alarmist claims seem plausible the one in a thousand year event so it must be CO2 claim is hyped up. However there is no thousand year long data set to support such a claim. Indeed more likely this is one of the flood type events which come in bursts over a few years every 133 years or so (see Red Weather Warning in TOP SWIP 17th-19th Nov forecast dramatically confirmed in Britain, Ireland, Europe & around world by Piers Corbyn on this site = WANews No88).

An interesting question is why hasn't the BBC reported on extreme events which happened around the world at the same time as Cumbria. For example 58,000 homeless in Sri Lanka due to floods & 3 MILLION relocated in China due to snow deluges (yes you read that right 3 million).

Such reportage of course would lead to two questions

- Was this world deluge of deluges expected? (=Yes) and
How & Why? ( = The cause was Solar-lunar forcing factors as predicted to the day by WeatherAction).
As long as the hysteria is limited to Cumbria the GWers hope to get away with the alarmist lie it is extreme therefore(?!) it must be CO2.

The simultaneity of not only of the very extreme events we didn't know about (except that there would be some) but of the ones we did predict is very important. As mentioned - and further to WeatherAction news No 88 and 87 - there were 5 simultaneous extreme events explicitly predicted by the SWT in addition to our local Britain / Ireland / SW Scandinavia storms
- USA extremes thunder floods etc - Confirmed and WOW
- East Tropical Pacific storm formation likely - Not confirmed
- West Pacific Late season Trop storm - There was development but it was curtailed (see News88)
- Late Season TC off Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka hit - WOW. There was no reported Tropical Cyclone (TC) but something lesser(?!) gave massive floods and 58,000 homeless
- An early season TC off NE Australia/Coral sea / S Pacific East of Brisbane with no landfall but effect on Queensland - WOW. There was (again) no reported TC but look at the map! The Murwillumbah hailstorm on the Queensland/NSW border is right beside Brisbane
So there were clear confirmed EFFECTS in 4 of the 5 or 5 of the 6 including BI/NWEurope (= 83%) [or 6/7=86% if N Brit gales/storms and Europe events are counted as two.]
Of course if you want to go into all the detail then the score is lower against harder hurdles which anyway were less confident. WeatherAction's independently verified 85% success is about basic confirmation of forecasts of extreme events made a long time ahead.

The fact that 4 of the 5 confirmed events showed some sort of decrease in motion and structure of storm systems and an accompanying increase in rain/precip due to stationary fronts is very interesting and may become predictable in future.

For Britain/Ireland & (SW) Scandinavia the extent to which matters were confirmed in detail was amazing until something vetoed the (50/50) possibility of enough mobility to give a storm tide coastal flood. So, what took place in that narrow 3 day time window first forecast 100 days ahead?:
* Dartboard low coming in - YES
* Stormy with heavy rain & severe gales in North parts - YES
* (S/W) England less wet & windy - YES
* A North Sea storm (eg storm force winds in North Sea) - YES (Force 11 in Fisher, just one notch below hurricane 12)
* A North Sea storm SURGE - Well even that began with the NW winds of force 11 in Fisher BUT it didn't last because the next Low (the most dangerous one) got stuck. (see WANews88 for map) So it didn't turn much colder and
* A coastal flood on East coast through breach of sea defences (forecast as 50/50) did not take place.

These Extreme events & WHAT TO DO now the Global Warmers have been exposed for shameful trickery will be discussed at WeatherAction's monthly Seminar & Press Conference on
Frid 27th Nov 12noon at WeatherAction Office 175 Borough High St SE1

Click to read PDF file from WeatherAction.com