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Well reported CR!

Yes and I notice this burst is continuing - for updating link (and other links) see:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html

So maybe an effect on:
QV4 18-20th for quakes and extreme weather
R4 19-21st for extreme weather events

A note on what DOES and What DOESN'T

Big events can occur on the sun but they might not effect earth if:

(i) They are not energetic enough or

(ii) Some 'magnetic muddle' (partial Quadrupole) in part of the sun (eg as recently conjectured for the Sun this May) redirects energetic plasma back to the sun's surface.

(iii) They result in a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) which is NOT earth-directed.

(iv) Lunar effects as they near earth do not enhance / or actually hinder their potential effects.

Note magnetic fields are invisible and the complexities of what the solar wind is doing are also mostly invisible, so what you see on the sun or even measure on a near earth satellite is one thing but what it does may be another.

Earth-facing coronal holes are an example of hurdles (i)-(iii) probably being overcome but note the image of the EFCH does not tell us what connectivity problems partial qudrupole effects may be giving.

LITTLE ICE AGE type weather to our understanding arises from weaker solar activity OR/AND weaker sun-earth magnetic connectivity - (and we are now often in the AND of these two) giving the world:-
- NH jet stream often displaced south = colder weather in all seasons.
- SH jet stream displaced North -- ditto --.
- More frequent heavy DAMAGING hail events (from eg steeper lapse rate)
- Very large amplitude swings in jet stream (longer total length of jet around globe) giving weather EXTREMES - both hot and cold but on average more cold - eg as during March this year - USA and UK very warm rest of NH cold, overall cold.

For the next 20 years standard meteorology (in its current form) will run into more and more problems as the unpredictable (to their system) factors of a 'magnetically muddled sun' strike again and again. However the deluded fools will blame CO2 while the world starves through LIA-type weather caused crop failures. Their ideology must be overthrown.

For links to UK+Ire JUNE see:

Forecast mock up/extract-
http://twitpic.com/9lxr6z/full

Subscriber link:
http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp

Thanks Piers

Piers, what solar or solar/lunar activity or inactivity are you using to confirm a forecasted R period?

Elim

I think your find it's down to "cause" and "effect"

The "effect" is the Earthquake!!!! As per notes

Unless it's me, your asking Piers to go over what we have done for the past few months, can you clarify your question in a way that your asking something new!

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Friday May 18, 2012 at 5:15 AM EDT

Hi CO2

I asked this question for the first time on 17th May in another thread. I still don't know the answer. I understand the EQ's and severe weather are seen as the 'effect' but what aspect of solar activity is hypothesised as the cause? This must be known otherwise how can an R period be forecast?

I'd say the answer to that is that Piers has at least 30 years knowledge on the topic and he uses it to compile the forecast. Friends at the Met Office can't forecast beyond a few days, and all they can do is ask for a bigger computer!

The climate change "cause" is from the Sun and all the time the Met Office ignore Piers the more daft they look!

What we need is for the two to get together, sadly that will not happen as it's a huge political agenda as well you know

let us in as to who you are, Piers says your a blogger who is nown as Eliminator!

Eliminator - good name, not me though!

I'm not asking how Piers forecasts the R period, but what he is forecasting in terms of solar activity. How can the forecast be verified if it's not clear what it is? As you said, the EQ's etc are only the effect.

Note magnetic fields are invisible and the complexities of what the solar wind is doing are also mostly invisible, so what you see on the sun or even measure on a near earth satellite is one thing but what it does may be another

Piers mentions the above in his last comments, hope that answers your question, as to how he uses a R1-5 who knows.

Today for example we had a M6.2, but as its inside a R4 period its below the M6.5 criteria, crazy stuff I know.

The fact is there WAS a large "Solar Kick" yesterday and today we have a M6.2 Earthquake, is it the one for the forecast or will there be a bigger "Kick" and a larger Earthquake in the next couple of days..stay tuned

Thanks CO2, no it doesn't answer my question unfortunately!
The way it appears is a series of days in a month are 'predicted', these are then 'confirmed' if an EQ or a hailstorm etc occur, with or without the detectable presence of any specific solar activity.
I may have gone wrong somewhere in my understanding?

Elim,

Some things are more obvious for tracking what's going on with the sun; sunspots, CME's, solar flares, Coronal Holes (the position is the main thing but SpaceWeather only mention CH's when they're large), IMF, ion waves, proton counts, Bz, lunar effects (full moon/new moon are the two most potent but the various cycles come into play also) and so on.

Although I have not heard Piers say it it has been speculated other planetary bodies come into play - I think the way to describe this would be a stream that would 'kink' as different areas are affected by gravitational/magnetic pulls. What is being carried by the solar win counts in terms of how it charged (+/-ve) as well as what's in the wind. Also within all this is the rate of flux - fast rates (i.e. changing from one state to another, or a significant increase/decrease). The hemisphere of action on the sun also counts.

As to how he predicts it - I wish I knew, but he won't tell all as he has to make a living! Some things however are predictable such as the lunar phases and the sun's rotation (c. 27 days) but then again different area's of the sun have different speeds. Over longer periods (years-centuries etc) these periods can converge and there are several other cycles at play, however many are only theorised by solar scientists as SOHO as monitoring (via SOHO etc) is fairly new.

CR has mentioned the supermoon recently but it had no effect in terms of causing quakes (did it 'prevent' them?).

If you read SpaceWeather (NOAA) daily you'll see things often happen with space weather that they don't understand or forecast.

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=29&month=03&year=2012

Good link for basics on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field which you will notice is often showing North around the time of quakes - not always but certainly during the big ones http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html

Tallblokes blog has looked into a few of these things which may help you understand more http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/nicola-scafetta-does-the-sun-work-as-a-nuclear-fusion-amplifier-of-planetary-tidal-forcing/ but there are so many things at play some of which which Piers alludes to above.

SolarHam is also a good website to track the various aspects of solar events.

I am still going through quake/solar data and some things really pop out but not every time. It may be a useful counterpoint to look into all this as well and see if you spot anything and if so if you it's statistical noise or something else.

Hi Craig

Thanks for taking the time to mention these additional points with Elim, I was thinking of using a YouTube that could show one of those "clear stratic" balls, one that had charged particles moving from the centre to the outer rim trying to hit a hand!

The Sun does something like that, but as Piers says, it's invisible, unlike the static ball. So when these bolts of light, for want of a description, are produced, the Moon seems to focus this energy.

Another way you maybe able to describe the event is like having a hosepipe set at sprinkle, the water is going out at a much bigger area, but if you were to turn the hose upside down and place a large object in the way, the water would hit the solid area and come out as a steady flow the other side!

If your in England, don't try it if there is a hosepipe ban!

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Friday May 18, 2012 at 9:22 PM EDT

Does Elim pay for any of our WeatherAction forecasts?

"Another way you maybe able to describe the event is like having a hosepipe set at sprinkle, the water is going out at a much bigger area, but if you were to turn the hose upside down and place a large object in the way, the water would hit the solid area and come out as a steady flow the other side!"

- Seems to me you are talking about the Coanda effect (?)

Thanks Craig and CO2, I can see your passion for this.
I'm not doubting the link between solar activity and EQ's, that's been well researched over many years.

Solaractivity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solaractivity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust.

John F Simpson Solaractivity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes
Earth and Planetary Science Letters Volume 3, 1967–1968, Pages 417–425

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980, as contained in two recent eruption catalogs, is subjected to detailed time series analysis. Two weak, but probably statistically significant, periodicities of ∼11 and ∼80 years are detected. Both cycles appear to correlate with well-known cycles of solar activity; the phasing is such that the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553–1972, reveals several very long periods that range from ∼80 to ∼350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records. Mechanisms to explain the Sun-volcano link probably involve induced changes in the basic state of the atmosphere. Solar flares are believed to cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the Earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which may temporarily relieve some of the stress in volcanic magma chambers, thereby weakening, postponing, or even aborting imminent large eruptions. In addition, decreased atmospheric precipitation around the years of solar maximum may cause a relative deficit of phreatomagmatic eruptions at those times.

Richard B. Stothers Volcanic Eruptions and Solar Activity
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 94, NO. B12, PP. 17,371-17,381, 1989

To name but two!

The link is established, so this trial is effectively attempting to predict/forecast meaningful solar activity as trigger to seismic activity. The month of May is covered by a warning on 26 of the 31 days, please, please tell me how you can get anything meaningful from this.

Elim

I have said to you already that Piers should keep to his R4 and R5 forecast, maybe we should!

Elim, once again - please wise up, we are NOT looking for confirmation etc of vague correlations of 'solar activity' (which covers a very wide range of items) and earthquakes, but why should I repeat this?
We are about (trial) predicting solar (and lunar) driving force events (which might be extreme or more subtle) and connected EXTREME quake events (and weather events) - generally labelled R/QV 4/5. I am frankly tired of your dishonest mis-representations of what we do - which has been explained many times. We construct and use or NOT use whatever concepts and categories major or minor of narrow or broad chance of success by luck to aid this task we find helpful. If you want to continue to 'not understand' then "tough".
Do you subscribe to any of our forecasts?

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Sunday May 20, 2012 at 12:39 AM EDT