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WORLD WIDE SIMULTANEITY OF JET STREAM & CIRCULATION SWITCHES AND DATE WHEN USA SUPERHEAT & DROUGHT WILL END

Timely coverage CR!

I posted the comment below backing Joe's great piece.

Great Report Joe,
This temperature deviation reversal around these dates to much colder center and East USA is in our WeatherAction long-range forecast for USA issued 31 July (from data choices made16th July).
AND YES this stark switching is part of our predicted solar-lunar driven dramatic shifts in the Jet stream WORLD-WIDE and associated changes in circulation. Indeed as subscribers to our forecasts know we write in our USA maps forecast for the period (WeatherAction forecast is in 8 periods through the month) when we expect the most dramatic changes:-
"World-wide changes in jet streams / ITCZs and circulation patterns".
This is the point: The dramatic switches are
- world-wide,
- essentially simultaneous,
- driven by solar-particle/magnetic and lunar modulation effects and
- predictable in long range by our WeatherAction Solar Lunar Action Technique (SLAT).

What is developing now is marked by (pretty) simultaneous (in weather time scales) dramatic shifts all over the globe, the Britain/Ireland, Europe and USA situations being explicitly predicted by our SLAT in detail:-
- The ending of deluges across Britain and an essentially dry period taking over with Low's being generally held in the Atlantic / to the South
- Corresponding ending of heat in East Europe
- much colder USA center and east and - in our forecast - prediction of WHEN the great heat and droughts USA will end (see below).
- a tremendous Arctic Low, see
http://twitpic.com/ajbdai/full
- an amazing record breaking cold blast with snow in ALL 9 provinces of South Africa.
http://t.co/nfox3dGV

One might expect that leading politicians and media of USA, Europe and UK would like to make use of and apply these forecasts to reduce misery and save lives but NO. There is only ONE that shows any interest - Boris Johnson, Mayor of London.
The rest and their prime propaganda machines the New York Times and BBC spout the scientific cretinism of the CO2 warmist religion which is pointing the world in the wrong direction. God Save Us as well as the Queen, I hope.

A FEW extra people are subscribing to our forecasts - now available under a great offer open to 17th Aug of free*** extra forecasts - but NOTHING compared with what is needed or the useful advice that could be given by media to millions in Europe and USA - eg US drought stricken areas if the US Govt bothered to bother about its people.

So what is going to happen in next few weeks?
1. Standard meteorology is going to make many mistakes in the 'new situations' in coming weeks.
2. There will be more than one significant change in Jet Streams and circulation apart from the main dramatic shifts USA & Europe explained in our forecasts.
3. The USA drought(s) will stutter but the final dramatic end of drought and heat in central parts will be through vigorous thunderstorms, tornadic strength winds, hail etc in central and East parts in period 23-27th August.
*** Further information / get forecasts (offer extended to 17th August in the Spirit of London 2012) visit:
http://t.co/rQGOK80B

Thanks,
Piers Corbyn,
WeatherAction long weather and climate forecasters

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Tuesday August 14, 2012 at 11:36 PM EDT

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Wednesday August 15, 2012 at 9:45 PM EDT

I’ll leave it to you chaps (Joe and Piers) to deal with the short term ups and downs.

My interest is in the longer term multidecadal to centennial swings from one PDO phase to the next and from MWP to LIA to date.

Suffice it to say that it does appear that those longer term trends are linked to top down solar effects on the global air circulation whereby the permanent climate zones drift latitudinally to and fro beyond normal seasonal variation over long periods of time. I have previously explained how and why that happens.

That latitudinal drifting alters the rate of energy flow from surface to space and therefore acts as a negative system response to any forcing process that seeks to change the system energy content.

One of the main features is the shift between zonal (strong west to east flow) and meridional (an increased north / south component) wind flows around the globe whereby a zonal flow tends to be a negative system response to net warming (faster energy loss to space) and a meridional flow is a negative system response to net cooling (slower energy loss to space).

We are currently seeing a much more meridional (cooling) flow and one of the effects is more extremes as the jets lock into position for variable periods of time giving more persistent anomalous weather conditions in changing locations around the globe which gives us events such as anomalous hot summers alternating with anomalous cold winters.

The change to more meridionality occurred around 2000 (and has intensified since ) coincident with reducing solar activity which has changed beyond the normal single cycle range as we progressed from active cycle 23 to much less active cycle 24.

Meridional jets give more global cloudiness because the length of the lines of air mass mixing increase. Global albedo rises and less solar energy gets into the oceans for a net system cooling over time.

Piers speaks Truth....but is pursued by web trolls, glory shadows and poser echos. Being a stalker and being the first one to shout "ME TOO" the loudest does not constitute informed opinion worth considering. Follow Piers & Bastardi, along with those who show True independent thought, for at this point, ALL GOVERNMENT SCIENCE IS SUSPECT. But remember, the web is full of trolls, shadows and echos.

SOLAR-MAGNETIC-LUNAR CONTROL OF JET-STREAM & CIRCULATION SWITCHES AND HOW JET-STREAM - GULF-STREAM COUPLING HASTENS LITTLE ICE AGE ADVANCE

THANKS JOE,

Yes there are many trolls out there mostly driven by the science cretinism of CO2 warmism or Met-model camp followers with an axe to grind.

Stephen of course is not a troll although sometimes he seems to follow the tendency of modern meteorology to confuse cause and description.

Anyhow, Stephen, our Solar Lunar Action Technique is about weather AND climate and certainly in addition to coming months deals with decades and centuries ahead - recall my video of 2 years ago of a '100 yr climate forecast' or the 'World cooling...' long lasting posting on the right bar here on CR
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3307

Latitudinal drifting of climate zones - ie general shifts of jet streamS poleward or equatorward are I say solar AND lunar dictated.
How in your book solar activity makes more or less M (Meridional) or Z (Zonal) jet flow I don't know but whatever you describe any theory involving solar connection must be:

1. Magnetic; hence the observed 22yr cycle in just about all weather variables. Solar activity AMOUNTS can ONLY give 11 yr cycles.

2. LUNAR modulated - hence our explanation of the PDO as a Hale cycle / lunar nodal cycle beat phenomena.

On the M/Z ratio I dont see WHY in your book it changes. I don't think your invoking of a kind of "Lenz's law in Meteorology" whereby any induced change (Lenz's Law being about currents induced by changing magnetic fields) opposes the change producing it - ie negative feedbacks - can explain M/Z changes.

It is of course true (and banal) that natural systems have overall negative feedbacks otherwise we would get runaway. However this fact does not rule out the vital role of positive feedbacks in meteorology and climatology which operate until over-ruled by larger scale negative feedbacks.

In the case of jet stream shifts and the onset of LIA type circulation these are vital. Once the NH jet stream has started a southward drift (caused by solar-lunar factors) it takes the track of Atlantic Lows further South which in turn draws the Atlantic ocean GULF stream more eastward and less northward. THIS hastens polar cooling and speeds up the onset of LIA. So here it does not appear to be the case that M/Z going up (which is as you note associated with Jet stream south drift) has reduced the rate of cooling but in fact increased it

NOTE!!!!!!!!!!!
The September 45day B+I forecast will be released later today 16th and the BI 45d and ALL other WeatherAction forecasts are included in our special 'Spirit Of London 2012' 1/3 of forecasts extra for free.
You must (re)subscribe by end of 17th August (Pacific US time) for the offer. Note credits given for unused parts of subscriptions to anyone UPGRADING from one service to another

Thanks, Piers

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Wednesday August 15, 2012 at 9:51 PM EDT

Well I don't exclude lunar and magnetic influences but it all seems to boil down to solar induced differential changes in the ozone creation and destruction balance at different heights in the atmosphere.

Such changes alter the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere to affect the gradient of the tropopause height between equator and pole.

The meridionality / zonality balance changes because the jets have less room to wave about when they are pushed towards the poles so instead of waving about they flow faster in a narrower west / east band.

A suitable analogy is the behaviour of a river down a slope as compared a river flowing across a plain. One is more direct and the other wanders all over the place. So it is with air flows.

A steeper tropopause gradient from equator to pole causes more zonality than a less steep tropopause gradient from equator to pole.

I first set out the basics of it here:

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6645

"How The Sun Could Control Earth's Temperature"

So you are saying M/Z (ratio of Meridional to Zonal flow) only depends on the average latitude, L, of Jet Stream. Surely not only on that? We sometimes see rapid increases in Z without a big change in L. True or False?

Also I am not sure of your analogy because in LIA type situations temperature contrasts (and prob tropopause height) contrasts are GREATER (and storms bigger, eg The Tempests of 1703 was at end of Maunder Miniumum LIA) and M/Z larger not smaller.

Readers note Our WeatherAction Great Offer of extra forecasts at no extra charge ends TODAY 17th (2400 USA Pacific time, so later in Brit+Ire+Eu time when you are downloading your B+I 45day forecast for September). See:

http://t.co/rQGOK80B

Go there or be square!

Thanks Piers

Not quite. Piers.

A change in M/Z will affect the average latitude because the greater volume of available space is towards the equator as compared to towards the poles.

More meridionality will therefore shift the average position of the jets equatorward and less meridionality will shift the average position poleward.

The average latitude depends on the degree of M or Z and not the other way round as suggested by you.

In turn the ratio M/Z is solar controlled because an active sun draws the jets poleward by contracting the polar air masses (positive arctic oscillation). When the sun is inactive the polar air masses become less concentrated and flop out across the mid latitudes more often and for longer (negative arctic oscillation).

That is why we do see a positive AO when the sun is active and a negative AO when the sun is less active.The recent record low solar activity was accompanied by a record negative AO


The analogy isn't perfect but I think it holds up. The larger cyclones during a cooling period with a more meridional flow are akin to the large meanders of a river flow. There is a difference in that in the river analogy the flow rate is slower but that is because the analogy is two dimensional whereas the atmosphere is three dimensional. In a three dimensional atmosphere the air flows are additionally energised by vertical temperature differentials but that doesn't apply to the river analogy.

"The average latitude depends on the degree of M or Z and not the other way round as suggested by you."

Hang on that is what I thought you were suggesting! ie
L=>M/Z but you say you meant M/Z=>L. (L is average Jet stream latitude)

I would think that it works to an extent both ways - with provisos.

ie: M/Z<=>L but there is a quite large degree of independence - As observed at times - True or False?

What you say about describing part of the solar activity connection in general terms is fine but I would also say that:

Major changes in M, Z and L are solar-Lunar driven (Including WHERE the main bends in Jet stream will be, something which is not predictable by things you say(?)) and magnetic links are vital. Otherwise we would not have 22yr cycles in loads of weather measurements world-wide or the ~60yr PDO. Solar activity AMOUNTS cannot explain either and the Moon is also needed for PDO.

Analogies are difficult here I think. You haven't commented on the feedbacks issue I mention. The Jet-Stream - Gulf-Stream coupling I suggest is very important and will hasten the coming LIA.

For information WeatherAction September 45day forecast out today shows some more Jet-stream antics and need I urge people to subscribe to forecasts (links above)!

Thanks Piers

Well the cause of the change in the M/Z ratio is a combination of bottom up oceanic forcing from the equator or top down solar forcing from the poles. How that translates to a net latitudinal shift on average would be variable depending on the proportionate contribution from each of the two forcings.

If you think there is a lunar effect in the mix too then I have no problem with that since it would simply modulate the net outcome from the oceanic and solar forcings.

I'm looking at the long term and not the short term and it is the short term where the actual positions of the loops are relevant to weather as per your forecasts.

The magnetic links I'm not sure about because like the cosmic ray variations they could simply be non causative correlations that serve as proxies for the level of solar activity. However I acknowledge the possibility that magnetic variations alter the quantities of particles coming in at the poles along the charge lines and so would indirectly contribute to the top down solar effects. My concept can accommodate that.

As for the jet stream / Gulf Stream coupling I agree that more meridional jets in a cooling regime would tend over time to reduce the vigour of the west east Gulf Stream flow but to my mind that is already incorporated in my concept because it contributes to the net outcome from the sun / ocean interaction.

We aren't far apart on all this but I lack the cofidence for short term predictions whereas you feel strong on that.

Well of course with a +AO we get typically a faster and more zonal jet stream further north, accompanied by faster trade winds, and with a -AO we typically get a slower more meridional jet stream further south with weaker trade winds.

@Stephen Wilde
"As for the jet stream / Gulf Stream coupling I agree that more meridional jets in a cooling regime would tend over time to reduce the vigour of the west east Gulf Stream flow.."

Water movement from wind is more likely to be perpendicular to the wind direction than with it. So maybe a more southerly jet could be moving more warmer water north than a northerly Jet could do. At a monthly scale, a -AO and cooler mid/upper latitude land temperatures will often see warmer than average sea temp's towards the Arctic. You can see the signal easily here simply by comparing colder UK months to Lower Trop' North Pole Ocean temp's: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt


Comment edited by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Friday August 17, 2012 at 3:57 PM EDT

Comment edited by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Saturday August 18, 2012 at 9:51 AM EDT

Citizens, Ulric, Stephen, thanks for comments
Useful stuff. There is a lot more I said also on which no-one has commented.

A point to note on Jet-Stream - Gulf-Stream matters is we have to distinguish between short term (weekly / monthly) Jet-Stream - Gulf-stream relations and associations and the slower (time scale of years) AVERAGE relationship I was talking about. I noted:
Once the NH jet stream has started a southward drift (caused by solar-lunar factors) it takes the track of Atlantic Lows further South which in turn draws the Atlantic ocean GULF stream more eastward and less northward.
- Ie the eastward flow towards Spain gets stronger and the NE'ly flow to Iceland / Scotland weakens. This is because the strongest winds in the Lows are in the South part and give an eastward push to surface currents on average (the differing and varying directions of waves in the jet stream being smoothed out on average and not anyway key to the point)
THIS hastens polar cooling and speeds up the onset of LIA.
I also noted So here it does not appear to be the case that M/Z going up (which is as you note associated with Jet stream south drift) has reduced the rate of cooling but in fact increased it

Interestingly the converse slow motion of the jet stream northward would not hasten the return of Gulf stream to NE'ly rather than E'ly flow. Consequently, notwithstanding other factors and complications concerning solar-lunar drivers the onset of LIAs should in general be more rapid than their ending. Looking at eg temperatures around the Dalton Minimum appears to support this point but a close look is needed to see what goes on in general.

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Thanks Piers

Piers, I do confirm that I see an increase in meridionality relative to zonality as increasing the rate of cooling not least because it contributes to a faster transport of energy from equator to poles and thence to space.

I see no problem with your other comments on the jet stream / Gulf stream interaction since the processes you describe simply contribute to the net rate of energy transfer between equator and poles.

In fact, slowing down the Gulf Stream flow past Iceland reduces the rate of energy loss to space and so is actually a warming effect in global terms but I say that other processes more than compensate for that with a net cooling outcome from greater meridionality.

This is interesting:

"Interestingly, the variations in transport of the deep waters in the current appear to be almost opposite in phase to the surface waters, and their magnitude is more significant (Hogg and Johns 1995)."

http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/gulf-stream.html

@Piers

"Once the NH jet stream has started a southward drift (caused by solar-lunar factors) it takes the track of Atlantic Lows further South which in turn draws the Atlantic ocean GULF stream more eastward and less northward. THIS hastens polar cooling and speeds up the onset of LIA."

So you are proposing a long term positive feedback?

"This is because the strongest winds in the Lows are in the South part and give an eastward push to surface currents on average"


This could well be pushing more warmer surface water further north.