Sunday, November 4th 2012, 1:42 PM EST
Apart from the obvious political message of the necessity to keep adequate emergency services to deal with the extreme-by-nature weather of the USA, rather than the totally short-sighted 'cut them down to size' view there are three important questions:
1. How well did forecasters do in getting Sandy's track and strength right to prepare warnings?
2. Will there be more or less of these extreme storms in future and where might they be (or not)?
3. Will it be possible to predict them in longer range?
1. FORECASTING.
a) BEFORE Sandy was projected to eventually take a sharp left turn and head for the coast WeatherAction predicted that during our top R5 period ~26-27/28th Sandy would track somewhat RIGHT of standard Met projections (and power up). After that period standard projections would be more accurate and the rightward perturbation would stop. See preceding WeatherAction Comment posting for more on this.
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This prognosis was wholly confirmed and simultaneously in the time period extra weather activity eg snow much further south in UK than original Met Office projections and huge earthquakes confirmed Weather Action Solar Lunar Action Technique (SLAT) R5 predictions for weather and earthquake (trial) risk.
Note some mentioned a slight left shift of track after our R5 ended which does not surprise us and is consistent with it 'not shifting right of models' as our forecast implicitly meant for that later period.
b) WHO SAW IT HEADING FOR NEW YORK FIRST? The answer to that is FirstHand weather - see Len Holliday's reader comment below and his forecast issued on 26th October http://firsthandweather.com/ .
Joe Bastardi was also as always pretty ahead of the game through Sandy's life in US waters in terms of track and intensity - especially as it headed for the coast.
c) THE FINAL HOURS were well forecasted by short range models and although there were OTT claims of extent and intensity made the danger was very real in more vulnerable places.
2. THERE WILL BE MORE 'SANDY TYPE' STORMS IN THE COMING 20 YEARS.
This follows directly from our, already being verified, forecast of an oncoming Little Ice Age and associated Jet Stream large swings and was explained in the public 'Climate Fools Day' event in UK Parliament Meeting Rooms on 31 Oct. Subscribers to WeatherAction USA maps and extremes forecast have already received this report printed below which as subscribers they got ahead of the public.
The CO2 warmist claims that CO2 is to blame for the likes of Sandy are UTTERLY DELUSIONAL BRAZEN SELF-SERVING LIES for which there is no evidence whatsoever and which are deliberately propagated to mislead the public and justify CO2 warmist taxes, energy price hikes, food price rises and other crippling 'green' charges and foolish policies.
"Major ‘jet stream shift’ storms like Sandy will strike more often in coming 20 years”
Piers Cobyn speaking at the Climate Fools Day* public meeting in the UK Parliament Oct 31 explained collisions of a cold active system with an (ex) Tropical Hurricane which made Sandy so dangerous are more common as we approach a new Little Ice Age. (*Anniv of the passing of The Climate Change Act 28 Oct 2008).
Showing symbolic colored flexes as Jet streams on a globe to a rapt audience he explained "These ‘near perfect storm’ situations require wide swings in the jet stream to bring contrasting systems together and this is what happens as we approach and go through ‘Little Ice Ages’ (LIAs) where the Jet stream is on average further south and goes through wild swings. This is happening now and will happen more in the coming 20 years”.
He added later: "It is important to note these are Solar-Lunar driven events and therefore follow the ~60year beat cycle in prevelance and Joe Bastardi points out there were more of them in the ‘50s. The Solar-Lunar related LIA makes them still more likely. The infamous Tempest of 1703 which destroyed Portsmouth and much of the English Fleet occurred towards the end of the Maunder Minimum LIA.
WHERE WILL THEY BE? They will be where large amplitude waves in the jet stream bring intense cold fronts a long way south which collide with tropical-type storms. The East side of continents in the semi-tropical / temperate North hemisphere and the NorthWest side of Northern Oceans reached by Tropical storm remnants are favored: This means China coast, Japan, East USA, NW Pacific at times and Ireland+Britain and near Europe at times.
3. THEY WILL BE PREDICATABLE IN LONG RANGE by WeatherAction's Solar-Lunar-Action Technique.
WE at WeatherAction predicted the potentially similar Hurricane Irene (2011) from 12 weeks ahead and forecast the 'End game' final track in detail better than standard methods.
See -
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No12.pdf
to
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No15.pdf
With our improved understanding of Jet stream south shifts and associated cold blasts (and note we predicted the end-Oct cold blast NE USA and the ~simultaneous cold blast UK from 4 and 6 weeks ahead respectively, to a day or two) the combination is predictable in long range, including potential sharp left meteorological (non-solar) turns at the very end of the storms life which made Sandy deadly (and which we had not considered at this stage of research).
Note we were not doing Tropical storms Long Range this year and were concentrating on researching 'powering up' and track shifts during R5 and R4 periods - see Reports on ClimateRealists site.
Thanks Piers Corbyn
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It happened previously to a slight degree during the mid 20th century cooling period and more pronouncedly during the Little Ice Age.
The cause is an expansion of the polar air masses (negative AO and AAO) as a result of changing solar effects on ozone amounts in the stratosphere which alters the ‘normal’ gradient of the tropopause between equator and pole allowing the permanent climate zones to slide latitudinally equatorward causing global cloudiness changes.
I have explained this in more detail elsewhere.
The fact really does seem to be that a quiet sun naturally warms the stratosphere differentially towards the poles pushing polar air masses equatorward more often.
In contrast an active sun naturally cools the stratosphere differentially towards the poles which contracts the polar air masses reducing equatorward outbreaks.
In this case the expanded polar air masses to the north prevented Sandy from joining the west / east zonal flow and forced it westward into the north east USA instead.
As it happens was aboard the Queen Mary 2 last week as Sandy approached NYC and we only just got out in time.
The previous 5 days of the voyage up to Halifax Nova Scotia was characterised by cloudless blue skies under a high pressure cell. It was clear to me even before the event that the high pressure cell would not easily give way.
If the sun stays quiet I expect to see more such large slow moving storms and the climate system slowly losing energy.