Posted by Joel Raupe (Twitter) on Dec 7th 2012, 12:59 PM EST
We've been monitoring the Moscow Neutron count as a measure of the resilience of the interplanetary magnetic field. The generally steady arrival of <i>Galactic</i> Cosmic Rays at Earth from outside the solar system is attenuated by higher than 50 percent at solar max. Because the record at Moscow and elsewhere goes back to 1958, it's easy to mark the GCR rate peaks, notably in 1966 and 2009, if memory serves, marking two historically soft solar minimum. Checking in September and this morning, the GCR rate seems still to be decreasing (though, perhaps interestingly, perhaps not, the GCR count from Voyager's perspective seemed to be increasing that last time I checked. Since the solar cycle is directly related to the twisted state of the Sun's magnetic field, the field fraying at the edge and a transitory "strengthening" of field lines in the inner solar system could be occurring at max. The whole GCR measure as indicator of solar minimum may not be as reliable a measure of solar max.<p>Nevertheless, I still wouldn't be surprised by an earlier than predicted solar max, in keeping with the weakness and "anomalous" behavior of the present cycle. After all, none of the officially prognosticated timing of recent minima has been accurate. Why would it be accurate now?
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